Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hello Art,
Thank you for continuing to provide this great information. My son just received a 209 Selection Index score on his PSAT. How likely is it that the cut-off score for Commended will be above that number? Obviously nothing is guaranteed at this time, just wondering how “on the bubble” he really is.
Paul,
It would be very surprising to see a 210 cutoff with so few students in the 1400-1520 range. As I mentioned in the post, it would require some big surprise of scores, but with 1.5M already accounted for, I just don’t see it happening. I’d say 90+% chance your son making Commended.
HI,
Do you believe that the studying aboard section score will change anytime soon? I got a 219 but I’m unsure if i will make the cutoff for studying aboard. Thanks!
James,
NMSC has had the same procedure in place for as long as I can remember. And I’m old. Unfortunately, I don’t think a 219 will qualify this year.
Hey art! Thank you for your work. Do you think a 216 would maybe qualify for Tennessee? It’s riding the border, so I am a little nervous, but I don’t know my chances.
Anon,
In your favor is that TN has had cutoffs of 215 the last two years. On the other hand, it had a 218 for the class of 2017, which was a down year for most states. Depending on your level of optimism, I’d say about 50/50 or a bit below. Let’s hope it sticks at 215!
Hi Art,
My son scored 1490 and 222 in MN. Do you think he has a good chance for semifinalist? Thank you
Randy,
A 222 in Minnesota will qualify. Congratulations to your son!
Texas here! We noticed yesterday the most likely showed a 221 (+1 over last year); and today with more information, that estimate has been adjusted to 220. My friend and I (both 220 SI) felt discouraged yesterday — before I get her hopes up, does this mean we have a better chance for NMSF?
Jules,
Yes, I thought I had uploaded my new spreadsheet last evening, but it wasn’t corrected until this morning.
The reality is that your chances are the same today as they were yesterday. They depend entirely on how other students in Texas performed. My goal is to provide students with as much information as possible, since September is a long way away. This is why I show my work. I don’t believe in just throwing up a list. With that out of the way, I like your and your friend’s chances at 220. Nationally, scores seem low, and Texas has hit 221 only in years with strong Commended numbers. Texas also happens to be a rapidly changing state, which is why I emphasize the fact that the cutoff could fall elsewhere in the range (if it falls lower than 220, of course, it’s all good for you!). Good luck.
I am in the exact same position for Texas. Got a 220 index and was pretty discouraged when I saw that the predicted cutoff was 221. Fingers crossed that its actually 220!
I took the PSAT in North Carolina and got a 216. Will I be commended, and if so, is there any chance that I become a semifinalist?
This year’s cutoff will likely be above 216 in North Carolina, but it’s an unusual year, so it’s not impossible. If you miss being a Semifinalist, your score is high enough that you will be named a Commended Student.
Art,
Wow, thank you for all this analysis and time you put forth on this topic. My son just received a 219, we live in Colorado. You estimate 218 (up 1), prior years peak at 220, 221. Your thoughts on 219 being NMF and odds it could be 220 in Colorado for 2023. Again, thank you! Steve
Steve,
My estimated ranges usually capture the majority of cases. The “Most Likely” figures require a fair amount of educated guessing — I don’t expect them to be right, I expect them to be good indicators. How confident am I that the Commended level will be low? How much has a state swung in the past? Where have its scores been in “down” years? In the case of that last question, it’s been at 218, 217, and 217 in those years. As you point out, though, Colorado’s cutoff has gone as high as 221. Based on what we know, I think it far more likely Colorado’s cutoff falls in the 217-219 range than reaching 220 or above. I like your son’s chances.
When do states announce their cutoffs?
EAH,
In late August, NMSC mails the list of Semifinalists to schools. That list includes the cutoff, so we sometimes get word of them before students receive notification from their schools in September. Until then, there is not much to do but wait.
HI Art
Do you think a 216 could qualify for Wisconsin? I saw scores in 217 in the past
Nick,
I think your chances are good. Wisconsin has hit 217, but only once and in an up year. As I like to point out, the numbers we have are national. It’s possible that students in Wisconsin crushed the PSAT. I’m inclined to believe that they didn’t crush it enough to push the Commended level about 216.
Hi Art
My kid is a Junior and took both PSAT and SAT. She did better in SAT than PSAT. Her PSAT selection index is at the lower end of the cutoff. My question is whether she can use her SAT score for NMSQT. If so, what is the procedure like? Thanks a lot for your response.
Helen,
The PSAT/NMSQT is the default entry point for National Merit. Students with a PSAT score cannot apply with an SAT score.
Hi Art,
Thank you for this awesome article explaining the nuances of PSAT. My daughter scored a 1460 and 218 on the selection (Illinois). Do you think she has a chance to qualify?
Thank you.
Rhene,
With the exception of last year, Illinois’ cutoff has been 218 since the PSAT was revised in 2015. That’s why I think a 219 is a bit more likely. Your daughter still has a chance at qualifying, of course. Nationally, I don’t know that we’ll see large changes from last year.
Hi Art,
My son received a 1430 and 211 index score In California. I was just wondering if that qualifies for commendation?
Jamin,
The Commended level is set nationally, and I don’t think there is any chance it will go as high as 212. Your son will qualify as a Commended Student and should be notified in September.
Thanks, Art for the informative article.
What is the likelihood for Semi Finalist @ CA for 220 ( Oct’21).
Got 36 in ACT ( Sept’21) , will this info impact semi finalist selection? Thanks
Tina,
California is large and diverse, so its cutoff is among the most stable. I don’t think a 220 cutoff is impossible, but it would require a lot of things to align.
SAT and ACT scores are not used in Semifinalist selection. Congratulations on your 36!
Hello! I noticed that your estimate for Michigan’s “most likely” cutoff for the class of 2023 has been changed from 218 to 217 today. I assume this is due to your observation when scores were released that it seems to be a lower scoring year, but I’m wondering why, then, your possible range still extends up to 220. (Yes, I know anything’s possible, but Michigan has never been higher than 219.)
We’re teetering here as my son got a 219. 🙂
Good catch, SATH. Prior to seeing how the scores seem low this year, I allowed for Michigan hitting a new record (several states do in an “average” year). Given what we now know, I don’t think a large state like Michigan will be breaking new ground. I’d say that your son is doing better than teetering! Good luck.
Hi Art,
My son appeared for PSAT from Florida and got an index of 226. However he is not a citizen. Can non immigrants qualify for National Merit scholarship?
Thanks in advance
Pallavi
Pallavi,
I’m glad you asked. Several years ago National Merit changed its eligibility rules. There is no longer a citizenship requirement for students attending school in the U.S. (including Territories and Commonwealths). Your son should be eligible in Florida and would qualify with a 226.
Hi Art,
Thank you for your great analysis! It’s very insightful. Would 220 in WA state have good chances to make the cut-off?
Max,
I think we’re likely to see more states at their recent lows than at their recent highs. If that is true in Washington, then a 220 will qualify. Unfortunately, we don’t have enough information to claim that a 221 or higher isn’t in the cards.
Hello Art!
Thanks for taking the time to write this article and answer these questions.
I live in Oklahoma, and my selection index is 214. What do you think my odds are of making semifinalist?
Anon,
Oklahoma has seen some big swings. I’d be pretty optimistic at 214, since the two recent years that came in higher than that also had really strong numbers nationally. I’m thinking 80%. Good luck.
Hi Art,
How does a 222 look in NY?
Do you think it could go to 223?
Thank you!
GR,
Very strong. New York has not even seen a 222 cutoff. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where it jumps to a 223 in a weak year.
I noticed that you changed the likely index for New Jersey from a 223 to a 222—did you have a specific reason for that? I’m from New Jersey and I got a 222 index haha
AT,
Based on the national scores, we appear to be in a bear market for PSAT scores. In down years, New Jersey’s cutoff has been at 222. If you asked me to pick the state most likely to reach 223, though, New Jersey wins handily. For students with scores on the bubble, the best advice I can give is do great on the SAT or ACT, work hard in school, stay out of trouble, and check back in late August. Those first 3 things matter for National Merit, but they work for college admission, too! You win either way. Good luck.
I know a Selection Index of 219 is in your range for NMSF in Texas this year, but how likely is it?
Pat,
Forced to pick just one number, I’d guess that Texas will come in at 220. But estimates are often wrong. The class of 2021 saw a weak year in scores because of an unusually scaled test, and Texas’ cutoff was at 219. This year does resemble that year. In the other two “down” years I am looking at, though, Texas hit 220. That ratio corresponds to my best estimate of the odds – 1/3 chance of a 219.
Hi Art,
I see you adjusted most likely cut off value for WA state from 221 to 220. Should I be hopeful with 220 now?
Max,
Yes, you may have seen the original estimates prior to my analysis of the national numbers. I think you can afford to be more hopeful than before that analysis, but a 220 is still going to be on the bubble in Washington.
Thanks for the great write-up! Any thoughts on my 219 SI from New York? I’m thinking maybe a 40% chance?
I would not disagree with that.
Hi Art, posting from Texas. I scored 1510 (227) in PSAT and 1580 in SAT . I think i will most likely be a NM semifinalist, but could there be any reason that I might not be selected as semi-finalist? Also, I have been hearing that SAT and PSAT do not matter as much for college admissions anymore. What are your thoughts on it?
Pranav,
The only way you could not qualify as a Semifinalist is if there were a mixup with eligibility. Make sure that you are listed as NM eligible on your score report. If you change schools, I’d check in with your new counselor. Otherwise, you’re good to go.
The majority of schools are test optional for the class of 2022. I expect some of those colleges to move to test required or test recommended for the class of 2023. There are many options for students without scores or with weak scores, but outside of a few test free institutions like the University of California system, a high SAT score is going to be a benefit.
Thanks for your thoughtful analysis! What are the chances of a 219 qualifying in New York this year? My daughter got a really high score on the SAT she took the same month and is bummed she didn’t do as well on the PSAT. In retrospect, she would have been better off missing the test and doing alternate entry instead. We’re assuming it’s unlikely she’ll get it given recent cut-offs, but it would be nice to be pleasantly surprised.
Ally,
While I think a 220 cutoff is more likely in New York, the state did have a 219 cutoff for the class of 2017, and that’s one of the 3 recent years I feel most resemble this year. Let’s hope for a pleasant surprise.
Hi Art,
Thanks much for your exhaustive research. My son got a 224 in Texas. Based on your information, it looks like he will be above the minimum index score. But I just wanted to ask, assuming he has a qualifying SAT score (he’s already locked in a 1560), does surpassing the minimum selection index score essentially secure NMSQT finalist status? (assuming nothing bizarre, like principal refusing to give recommendation).
TD,
He will qualify as a Semifinalist, and that’s the hardest step in reaching Finalist (about 15,000 of 16,000 SFs become Finalists). Your son also has a confirming score. The other factors are his grades, his application, and the support of his school. NMSC does not set minimum GPA standards; it simply says “a record of consistently very high academic performance in all of grades 9 through 12 and in any college course work taken.” Here is the complete information for last year’s class.
Hi
From first hand experience if there is a C on the record, it will be tough to make the national merit finalist. Couple of Bs might be ok. There are detailed discussions in other forums.
Hope that helps.
Thanks, Matt.
NMSC only does the calculation 16,000 times a year! You’d think they’d be able to summarize their expectations.
Hi Art, Thanks for helping us out.
My daughter is in California & got 1480 in PSAT with 220 as an index. Any chance of getting into Semi-Finalist ? With UCs going test blind, I am not sure how many kids will go for PSAT or test, so will that help in lowering the index.
Sam,
That’s an interesting idea. Usually students take the PSAT based on whether or not their school offers/requires it. Some California schools have backed away from testing, so it could weaken the numbers. That’s probably a very optimistic view — the most competitive schools and students tend to stick with testing — but I’m pro-optimism.
Hi Art,
What do you expect for PA? How low has PA been recently?
Nelli,
Pennsylvania’s cutoff has been as low as 217. The years where it went to 220 were strong years nationally. I expect a weak year.