Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
MY GRANDSON SCORED A 218 IN LOUISIANA…WHAT IS THE LIKLIHOOD OF NMSF?
Paul,
I think your grandson will be a Semifinalist. Louisiana’s cutoff has never gone above 217, and I don’t think many (or any) state will see a new high this year. Congratulations!
Hi Art,
Thanks for all your help. My son score a 212 Selection Index in PR. Does he has a good chance for NMSF?
Fernando,
Your son should be a Semifinalist at 212. Congratulations!
My daughter got a 220 in NJ. ( 1460) Where does that put her? This is soooo confusing, but it seems that she won’t male Merit….no? Thanks in advance!
Dee,
New Jersey is the most competitive state in the country when it comes to National Merit. Your daughter’s score would probably qualify her as a Semifinalist in 40-45 other states. Unfortunately, New Jersey is likely to see a cutoff around 222 or 223.
Dear Art,
My son has a selection index score of 221 by PSAT. Based on his SAT, his selection index score would be 226. Should he chose Alternate Entry instead?
Thanks in advance from MN!
MW
MW,
Students with PSAT scores cannot use Alternate Entry. I think it highly unlikely that Minnesota’s cutoff will go to 222. I feel confident that your son will be a Semifinalist.
My son is a 222 in NJ. Where do you place the odds of NJ coming in at 222 vs 223? Thanks much.
AJ,
I think it is close to a toss-up between 222 and 223 in New Jersey. I weight the odds to 222, though, since that’s been the top cutoff when we’ve seen low Commended numbers (not counting Maryland’s 224 from last year).
I scored 189 on the index, but it said I was disqualified because I mistakenly wrote my graduation year as 2024 instead of 2023. but if a 189 isn’t enough anyway is it even worth my time to write to the cooperation and have them fix it???
Erek,
I can’t think of a reason to update your graduation year for National Merit. However, you may want to make sure that it is correct in your College Board account. Colleges use that information to market to students.
I have a 222 index in Massachusetts, what do you think my odds of being a semifinalist are?
Mike,
At least based in what we are seeing in the overall 1400-1520 range, it’s more likely that Massachusetts will be at 222 than 223. I think your odds are good.
Hi Art,
Our son’s SI is 211. We are in Louisiana.
Hi SI is one point below your estimated cut off.
In your opinion, is there any realistic chance that the range could dip lower from 212?
Thank you.
Anon,
We haven’t seen Louisiana’s cutoff drop below 212, but it’s possible that we’ll see some states with new lows this year.
Hi thanks so much for the helpful information , I scored a 1480 (220 index) in Florida for the class of 2023 NMSQT. What do you think my chances are at being a semifinalist? I see that the range is 215-219 for Florida but I was wondering if that guarantees it for me. Also, I am great at math but not a very strong writer so will a weak essay prevent me from becoming a finalist?
Thanks!
Tyler,
While I have no power to make guarantees on behalf of National Merit, I can offer my personal guarantee. Congratulations.
Most Semifinalists become Finalists. Your essay will likely have a bigger impact on making Scholar (i.e. being offered a scholarship). Of course if you are considering a public university in Florida, there are wonderful scholarship opportunities for Finalists (search Benacquisto Scholarship).
Hi Art,
What is the %chance my daughter will qualifies for semifinalists? Her score is 223.
Thank you,
May
Mayuree,
Cutoffs are by state. I think you are in California, where the cutoff will almost certainly be at or below 223.
Hello Art – My son got a 214 index in Michigan with a PSAT score of 1450. Is there a chance of making it in the semifinalist list? Thanks.
AN,
Once Michigan switched from being an ACT state to an SAT state, its cutoff went higher. I don’t think 214 will be high enough for Semifinalist, although he will be Commended.
What a wealth of knowledge in this article (and the comment replies!)
My question is: will the commended cutoff, when it is released, help give any indication of which way the semifinalist cutoffs will skew? I.e., would a 207 commended cutoff portend semifinalist numbers on the lower end of the range? My son has a 214 SI in Ohio, so it’s a nail biter here for us.
Janet,
The Commended cutoff won’t add much certainty for most cutoffs. The only exception would be if my numbers are way off and we see something in the 210-212 range (or, I suppose a 206). That said, lower is better! We’ll probably find out about the Commended level in April or May.
Hi, Art.
Thank you so very much for sharing your wealth of information with all of us. I have two children who both have a selection index of 217 in Alabama. (Strange that they made the exact same score and have the same SI that our older child had a few years ago) Can we relax just a little?
KK,
I’d recommend relaxing. I don’t see how Alabama could make such a large leap in a weak year.
I’ve seen some families where the students are on opposite sides of the cut. It’s nice that your children are at the same score!
Hi Art, is the PSAT curve pre-determined like the SATs? Or is it determined after the test is taken and after seeing how the students have preformed? With only 3% of students scoring at 1400+ this year (tied with October 2019 PSAT), I am curious to know if the low scores are mostly due to test difficulty, esp with only 12% difference in PSAT volume from 2019. Thank you for all your insight into the PSAT process!
AM,
Yes, the PSAT is scaled like the SAT. This is both a blessing — the scale doesn’t depend on who else is taking the exam — and a curse — if College Board’s scale is wonky, there is no correcting it after the fact. It’s not test difficulty per se so much as the interplay of scale and difficulty. The way scaling should work is that a forgiving scale offsets a difficult test and a harsh scale offsets an easier test (it’s virtually impossible to have identical difficulty for every exam). Sometimes, though, the scale is harsher than it probably should be. This is likely the result of College Board basing the scale off an inadequate base of pilot students. In part, this is due to the limitations of the PSAT in measuring students at extremely high score levels. To properly differentiate among students, you really want a large number of questions that challenge them. But if you have a set of questions that challenges 1450 scorers, the test is going to be horrible at gauging the performance of 900 scorers. The PSAT is taken by a wide range of both sophomores and juniors, so it needs to be easier than the SAT. The result is that a careless error here or there can make or break the chances for Semifinalist status.
Wondering about Georgia. My son had an off day (we’re kicking ourselves that we didn’t pull his PSAT results from consideration before the deadline). He ended up with a 217 SI, which will certainly be Commended, but is on the very low end of the Estimated Range for Semi-Finalists in Georgia. What do you think his chances are? I feel it would be so much more equitable for the NMSC to allow families to choose whether to submit PSAT or SAT scores for qualification after the scores are released (just as super scoring test results are selected after the fact) with a uniform testing cutoff date for everyone. Sigh. Live and learn…
Kathryn,
With the caveat that I don’t have a crystal ball, I’d say that there is about a 25% chance of a 217. We know it happened just 2 years ago!
When you consider how testing behavior has changed so dramatically in the last couple of decades, it’s amazing that NMSC has stuck with the same basic formula for more than 60 years.
Art, saw that you revised “most likely” in Illinois down from 220 to 219. I realize that speculation comes with no express warranty, so I’d love a bit more of your thoughts on that adjustment. We have a child with a 220 in a top IL high school that had 5 220s, no scores above 220 (oddly), and pretty stable 5-6 semifinalists every year, FWIW. (separately, tip of the hat for both your high-quality analysis and your diligence in answering every parent question here – impressive!)
TC,
My original estimates were based without any knowledge of how scores shaped up on this year’s exam — in other words, they depended entirely on historical trends. Once I had a chance to analyze the data, it became clear that we were seeing a year with weak scores (usually the result of an overly harsh scale). I should emphasize that I was analyzing national data. I don’t have access to how students in Illinois performed, for example.
I don’t know how much we can read into the results from your student’s high school. As a data wonk, though, I always appreciate when people share! If we talk about other factoids about a 220 cutoff, we can throw in that Illinois has never seen a 220 cutoff. It’s either been above (221) or below (218-219). That’s one of the reasons I don’t like to put too much weight on a “Most Likely.” There is always an element of surprise. Let’s hope it’s a pleasant one.
Hi, I have scored a 216 in Louisiana, will I make NMSC?
Anonymous,
While Louisiana has seen a cutoff as high as 217, that was in a year where many states had abnormally high cutoffs. This looks to be a different kind of year, so I think your chances are excellent.
Hi Art,
How does 222 look for NY?
Do you think the cutoff may go to 223?
Thank you!
G,
No, I think there is virtually no chance NY will go to 223. It’s never been above 221, and this is not a year we are likely to see new highs.
227 for my son in Louisiana! He’s taking the ACT on Saturday for the first time, so fingers crossed for a confirming score! We are so proud and happy for him and his friends!
Emily,
Wow! Congratulations to your son. I hope things went well on the ACT.
I saw that you moved Tennessee’s projected cutoff from 218 to 217. I made a 218 in TN. Are my chances pretty good? I’m hoping its a very remote possibility of score in TN rebounding to all-time highs of 219, but is it still a significant possibility?
Colin,
The numbers nationally, as you’ve read, look weak. That doesn’t mean that every state will see low cutoffs, but it certainly increases the odds. Tennessee was at 219 in the years when the Commended level was 212. We certainly won’t be anywhere close to that this year.
Thanks for your work. I am relieved to learn that CA new cutoff is down by 1 pt as my son’s score is 1480/222. Would you say he is pretty safe for semi-finalist?
BY,
Yes, although I’d still keep the modifier of “pretty.” There is an extremely low chance of a 223 cutoff in CA, but I don’t think we can say it is 0%.
Hi Art,
What are the chances that a 218 will qualify in Texas?
Cris,
While I don’t think it’s unlikely, I included 218 in the potential score range because I don’t think we can discount it entirely in such a weak year. I’d normally expect 5-6 states to fall at the low end of the ranges.
Hi Art,
My daughter got a 221 SI in Maryland. I see that is the “most likely” scenario but the range makes it seem like if it isn’t 221 it will probably be higher. What would you say are the odds she makes it? 50%?
Tom,
Maryland played tricks on all of us last year. Because of PSAT cancellations, the cutoff really reflected Alternate Entry (SAT) scores rather than PSAT scores. I don’t think we’ll see a repeat, but it didn’t feel right to exclude 224 from the range when that was last year’s cutoff. Putting aside the “lightning strikes twice” scenario, I think there is a better than even chance that it will be at 221. Maybe 60/40 between 221 and 222.
Hi,
My son got an index score of 219 in Utah. Would you say it’s safe to assume he’ll be a semi finalist?
Thanks!
Jenni,
Your son will be a Semifinalist with a 219. Congratulations!
We currently live outside of the US on PCS orders for the US government. Our home of record is Florida, but our son attends an international school. He scored 1460 with and index score of 218. Will he be grouped with outside of US or with Florida for NMSF consideration? Thanks.
anonymous,
National Merit uses the location of a student’s school when making classifications. I believe your son would be treated as studying abroad, and the highest state cutoff would apply.
Art,
My son got a 216. We are in South Carolina. What do you think his % chance is of qualifying?
Andrew,
I think your chances are very strong (90% ?). South Carolina has seen a cutoff of 217 in the past, but it was in a year of generally high cutoffs.
Hi Art,
Thank you for responding to all of these questions. My daughter scored a 1430 / 212 in the state of Alabama. What do you think her chances of making semi-finalist are? If the cutoff is 214, would she still be commended?
Thanks!
Janie,
The Commended cutoff will be lower than 210 this year, so you daughter will, at minimum, be a Commended Student. The Alabama cutoff has not gone as low as 212, but I expect at least a few states to hit new lows this year.
Hello!
Would a 218 in NC qualify for semi-finalist?
I don’t think we can say with confidence, but I’ll point out that in years where the Commended level has been below 210, a 218 has qualified in North Carolina. Every year is a different, however. I’d say that there is about a 60-70% chance that it will qualify.