April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
MY GRANDSON SCORED A 218 IN LOUISIANA…WHAT IS THE LIKLIHOOD OF NMSF?
Paul,
I think your grandson will be a Semifinalist. Louisiana’s cutoff has never gone above 217, and I don’t think many (or any) state will see a new high this year. Congratulations!
Hi Art,
Thanks for all your help. My son score a 212 Selection Index in PR. Does he has a good chance for NMSF?
Fernando,
Your son should be a Semifinalist at 212. Congratulations!
My daughter got a 220 in NJ. ( 1460) Where does that put her? This is soooo confusing, but it seems that she won’t male Merit….no? Thanks in advance!
Dee,
New Jersey is the most competitive state in the country when it comes to National Merit. Your daughter’s score would probably qualify her as a Semifinalist in 40-45 other states. Unfortunately, New Jersey is likely to see a cutoff around 222 or 223.
Dear Art,
My son has a selection index score of 221 by PSAT. Based on his SAT, his selection index score would be 226. Should he chose Alternate Entry instead?
Thanks in advance from MN!
MW
MW,
Students with PSAT scores cannot use Alternate Entry. I think it highly unlikely that Minnesota’s cutoff will go to 222. I feel confident that your son will be a Semifinalist.
My son is a 222 in NJ. Where do you place the odds of NJ coming in at 222 vs 223? Thanks much.
AJ,
I think it is close to a toss-up between 222 and 223 in New Jersey. I weight the odds to 222, though, since that’s been the top cutoff when we’ve seen low Commended numbers (not counting Maryland’s 224 from last year).
I scored 189 on the index, but it said I was disqualified because I mistakenly wrote my graduation year as 2024 instead of 2023. but if a 189 isn’t enough anyway is it even worth my time to write to the cooperation and have them fix it???
Erek,
I can’t think of a reason to update your graduation year for National Merit. However, you may want to make sure that it is correct in your College Board account. Colleges use that information to market to students.
I have a 222 index in Massachusetts, what do you think my odds of being a semifinalist are?
Mike,
At least based in what we are seeing in the overall 1400-1520 range, it’s more likely that Massachusetts will be at 222 than 223. I think your odds are good.
Hi Art,
Our son’s SI is 211. We are in Louisiana.
Hi SI is one point below your estimated cut off.
In your opinion, is there any realistic chance that the range could dip lower from 212?
Thank you.
Anon,
We haven’t seen Louisiana’s cutoff drop below 212, but it’s possible that we’ll see some states with new lows this year.
Hi thanks so much for the helpful information , I scored a 1480 (220 index) in Florida for the class of 2023 NMSQT. What do you think my chances are at being a semifinalist? I see that the range is 215-219 for Florida but I was wondering if that guarantees it for me. Also, I am great at math but not a very strong writer so will a weak essay prevent me from becoming a finalist?
Thanks!
Tyler,
While I have no power to make guarantees on behalf of National Merit, I can offer my personal guarantee. Congratulations.
Most Semifinalists become Finalists. Your essay will likely have a bigger impact on making Scholar (i.e. being offered a scholarship). Of course if you are considering a public university in Florida, there are wonderful scholarship opportunities for Finalists (search Benacquisto Scholarship).
Hi Art,
What is the %chance my daughter will qualifies for semifinalists? Her score is 223.
Thank you,
May
Mayuree,
Cutoffs are by state. I think you are in California, where the cutoff will almost certainly be at or below 223.
Hello Art – My son got a 214 index in Michigan with a PSAT score of 1450. Is there a chance of making it in the semifinalist list? Thanks.
AN,
Once Michigan switched from being an ACT state to an SAT state, its cutoff went higher. I don’t think 214 will be high enough for Semifinalist, although he will be Commended.
What a wealth of knowledge in this article (and the comment replies!)
My question is: will the commended cutoff, when it is released, help give any indication of which way the semifinalist cutoffs will skew? I.e., would a 207 commended cutoff portend semifinalist numbers on the lower end of the range? My son has a 214 SI in Ohio, so it’s a nail biter here for us.
Janet,
The Commended cutoff won’t add much certainty for most cutoffs. The only exception would be if my numbers are way off and we see something in the 210-212 range (or, I suppose a 206). That said, lower is better! We’ll probably find out about the Commended level in April or May.
Hi, Art.
Thank you so very much for sharing your wealth of information with all of us. I have two children who both have a selection index of 217 in Alabama. (Strange that they made the exact same score and have the same SI that our older child had a few years ago) Can we relax just a little?
KK,
I’d recommend relaxing. I don’t see how Alabama could make such a large leap in a weak year.
I’ve seen some families where the students are on opposite sides of the cut. It’s nice that your children are at the same score!
Hi Art, is the PSAT curve pre-determined like the SATs? Or is it determined after the test is taken and after seeing how the students have preformed? With only 3% of students scoring at 1400+ this year (tied with October 2019 PSAT), I am curious to know if the low scores are mostly due to test difficulty, esp with only 12% difference in PSAT volume from 2019. Thank you for all your insight into the PSAT process!
AM,
Yes, the PSAT is scaled like the SAT. This is both a blessing — the scale doesn’t depend on who else is taking the exam — and a curse — if College Board’s scale is wonky, there is no correcting it after the fact. It’s not test difficulty per se so much as the interplay of scale and difficulty. The way scaling should work is that a forgiving scale offsets a difficult test and a harsh scale offsets an easier test (it’s virtually impossible to have identical difficulty for every exam). Sometimes, though, the scale is harsher than it probably should be. This is likely the result of College Board basing the scale off an inadequate base of pilot students. In part, this is due to the limitations of the PSAT in measuring students at extremely high score levels. To properly differentiate among students, you really want a large number of questions that challenge them. But if you have a set of questions that challenges 1450 scorers, the test is going to be horrible at gauging the performance of 900 scorers. The PSAT is taken by a wide range of both sophomores and juniors, so it needs to be easier than the SAT. The result is that a careless error here or there can make or break the chances for Semifinalist status.
Wondering about Georgia. My son had an off day (we’re kicking ourselves that we didn’t pull his PSAT results from consideration before the deadline). He ended up with a 217 SI, which will certainly be Commended, but is on the very low end of the Estimated Range for Semi-Finalists in Georgia. What do you think his chances are? I feel it would be so much more equitable for the NMSC to allow families to choose whether to submit PSAT or SAT scores for qualification after the scores are released (just as super scoring test results are selected after the fact) with a uniform testing cutoff date for everyone. Sigh. Live and learn…
Kathryn,
With the caveat that I don’t have a crystal ball, I’d say that there is about a 25% chance of a 217. We know it happened just 2 years ago!
When you consider how testing behavior has changed so dramatically in the last couple of decades, it’s amazing that NMSC has stuck with the same basic formula for more than 60 years.
Art, saw that you revised “most likely” in Illinois down from 220 to 219. I realize that speculation comes with no express warranty, so I’d love a bit more of your thoughts on that adjustment. We have a child with a 220 in a top IL high school that had 5 220s, no scores above 220 (oddly), and pretty stable 5-6 semifinalists every year, FWIW. (separately, tip of the hat for both your high-quality analysis and your diligence in answering every parent question here – impressive!)
TC,
My original estimates were based without any knowledge of how scores shaped up on this year’s exam — in other words, they depended entirely on historical trends. Once I had a chance to analyze the data, it became clear that we were seeing a year with weak scores (usually the result of an overly harsh scale). I should emphasize that I was analyzing national data. I don’t have access to how students in Illinois performed, for example.
I don’t know how much we can read into the results from your student’s high school. As a data wonk, though, I always appreciate when people share! If we talk about other factoids about a 220 cutoff, we can throw in that Illinois has never seen a 220 cutoff. It’s either been above (221) or below (218-219). That’s one of the reasons I don’t like to put too much weight on a “Most Likely.” There is always an element of surprise. Let’s hope it’s a pleasant one.
Hi, I have scored a 216 in Louisiana, will I make NMSC?
Anonymous,
While Louisiana has seen a cutoff as high as 217, that was in a year where many states had abnormally high cutoffs. This looks to be a different kind of year, so I think your chances are excellent.
Hi Art,
How does 222 look for NY?
Do you think the cutoff may go to 223?
Thank you!
G,
No, I think there is virtually no chance NY will go to 223. It’s never been above 221, and this is not a year we are likely to see new highs.
227 for my son in Louisiana! He’s taking the ACT on Saturday for the first time, so fingers crossed for a confirming score! We are so proud and happy for him and his friends!
Emily,
Wow! Congratulations to your son. I hope things went well on the ACT.
I saw that you moved Tennessee’s projected cutoff from 218 to 217. I made a 218 in TN. Are my chances pretty good? I’m hoping its a very remote possibility of score in TN rebounding to all-time highs of 219, but is it still a significant possibility?
Colin,
The numbers nationally, as you’ve read, look weak. That doesn’t mean that every state will see low cutoffs, but it certainly increases the odds. Tennessee was at 219 in the years when the Commended level was 212. We certainly won’t be anywhere close to that this year.
Thanks for your work. I am relieved to learn that CA new cutoff is down by 1 pt as my son’s score is 1480/222. Would you say he is pretty safe for semi-finalist?
BY,
Yes, although I’d still keep the modifier of “pretty.” There is an extremely low chance of a 223 cutoff in CA, but I don’t think we can say it is 0%.
Hi Art,
What are the chances that a 218 will qualify in Texas?
Cris,
While I don’t think it’s unlikely, I included 218 in the potential score range because I don’t think we can discount it entirely in such a weak year. I’d normally expect 5-6 states to fall at the low end of the ranges.
Hi Art,
My daughter got a 221 SI in Maryland. I see that is the “most likely” scenario but the range makes it seem like if it isn’t 221 it will probably be higher. What would you say are the odds she makes it? 50%?
Tom,
Maryland played tricks on all of us last year. Because of PSAT cancellations, the cutoff really reflected Alternate Entry (SAT) scores rather than PSAT scores. I don’t think we’ll see a repeat, but it didn’t feel right to exclude 224 from the range when that was last year’s cutoff. Putting aside the “lightning strikes twice” scenario, I think there is a better than even chance that it will be at 221. Maybe 60/40 between 221 and 222.
Hi,
My son got an index score of 219 in Utah. Would you say it’s safe to assume he’ll be a semi finalist?
Thanks!
Jenni,
Your son will be a Semifinalist with a 219. Congratulations!
We currently live outside of the US on PCS orders for the US government. Our home of record is Florida, but our son attends an international school. He scored 1460 with and index score of 218. Will he be grouped with outside of US or with Florida for NMSF consideration? Thanks.
anonymous,
National Merit uses the location of a student’s school when making classifications. I believe your son would be treated as studying abroad, and the highest state cutoff would apply.
Art,
My son got a 216. We are in South Carolina. What do you think his % chance is of qualifying?
Andrew,
I think your chances are very strong (90% ?). South Carolina has seen a cutoff of 217 in the past, but it was in a year of generally high cutoffs.
Hi Art,
Thank you for responding to all of these questions. My daughter scored a 1430 / 212 in the state of Alabama. What do you think her chances of making semi-finalist are? If the cutoff is 214, would she still be commended?
Thanks!
Janie,
The Commended cutoff will be lower than 210 this year, so you daughter will, at minimum, be a Commended Student. The Alabama cutoff has not gone as low as 212, but I expect at least a few states to hit new lows this year.
Hello!
Would a 218 in NC qualify for semi-finalist?
I don’t think we can say with confidence, but I’ll point out that in years where the Commended level has been below 210, a 218 has qualified in North Carolina. Every year is a different, however. I’d say that there is about a 60-70% chance that it will qualify.