Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi
My son scored 1480 and has a selection index of 221 while studying abroad.
What are his chances of being a semifinalist?
Sonu,
Because the Studying Abroad Selection Unit has a cutoff that is as high as the highest state cutoff, we would need to see no state go above 221. Unfortunately, we haven’t yet seen that happen since the PSAT was revised in Oct 2015.
I scored a 1450 (219) in Tennessee. Will I be a semifinalist?
Niles,
I think there is a 95% chance that you will be. I don’t foresee any states hitting new records this year.
How would you say the odds look for a 219 in Illinois?
Seth,
I’ve tried to set my Most Likely’s at where I think there is about a 60/40 chance of qualifying. I may not be right, of course, but that’s what I attempt. In really close cases it might be closer to a coin toss. I’d say that Illinois and 219 is right around there. Better than even, but hardly a sure thing.
Hi Art! Thanks for this article- it’s hard to find information about the National Merit Scholarships written with such clarity. I’m certain I’ll be above the cut off (226 selection index in CA) and already have a verifying SAT of 1580, but I still don’t understand what that means for me. Who makes up the commended scholars? How do you become a semi-finalist as opposed to a commended scholar (is it an application to be a SF, or is that only for finalists?) Thank you!!
Lila,
It basically goes Commended->Semifinalist->Finalist->Scholar (awarded money). You will be named a Semifinalist in September and be given an application for Finalist. There is nothing you need to do between now and then. Juniors taking the PSAT are automatically entered. Once you are named a Semifinalist, you’ll get access to the online application for Finalist. You’ve got the confirming score already. They’ll also be looking for excellent grades and want to see your essay and school recommendation. Most Semifinalists become Finalists (15,000 out of 16,000). The step from Finalist to Scholar is more complicated. There are scholarships that come from National Merit, those that come from companies, and those that come from colleges. The company ones are usually directed at the children of employees. Only some colleges provide National Merit scholarships. If you are a Finalist and get accepted to a college that you have listed with NMSC as your first choice, then you will receive one of those scholarships [a reason why you never want to list a non-scholarship-offering college as your first choice]. Another 2,500 scholarships come directly from NMSC and tend to be quite competitive. In total, about half of Finalists receive some sort of National Merit scholarship. Congratulations, btw!
Hey Mr. Sawyer,
I’m a junior from Texas. I took this year’s PSAT and had taken the SAT at the beginning of the year. For the PSAT I got a 210 NMSC score, which I thought wouldn’t make the Semifinalist rating. And my SAT score is 31 Reading, 37 Writing, and 37.5 Math. Should I turn in the SAT for alternate entry? What should I do to maximize my chances of getting accepted as a Finalist?
Thank you,
Ahmet,
Only students without PSAT scores are eligible for Alternate Entry, because it means that they missed the PSAT due to extenuating circumstances. You will likely be named a Commended Student.
I got a 195 in Arizona, what are the chances of my moving further ahead?
Adrian,
A 195 SI is a very good score, but it won’t be high enough to put you into the top 50,000 scorers for National Merit.
We currently live outside of the US on PCS orders for the US government, but our home state is Florida. Our son attends a local school where he took PSAT. Will he be included in outside of US or Florida for NMSF purposes? Thanks.
National Merit determines the state/selection unit by the school’s location rather than by the student’s location. I believe your son would need to meet the Studying Abroad cutoff.
My son scored a 221 in Alabama. Based on everything I have read he should be a NMSF?
Rod,
A 221 will absolutely qualify as NMSF in Alabama. Congratulations to your son!
Do states release any information about test scores before September that might indicate the cutoff going up or down? As an example: The number of students, percentile range on the different sections, comparisons to previous years.
thanks
Brian,
I wish. In the last 8 years, I can only recall a few times where any score information leaked in that way — and in each case I believe it was from city school districts rather than from states. College Board stopped providing state figures about a decade ago.
Art, thanks so much for your information. My son’s state of Oklahoma had an article hit the USA Today this past summer about how much standardized testing scores had fallen. With 2021 being the year back from a semi-virtual school year, it seems like some of the less competitive states could set some records on the low end. Do you have any insight on that theory?
Thanks
Brian
Brian,
Learning has certainly been impacted by disruptions and by virtual instruction. There is not a good measure of the impact when it comes to the PSAT and SAT because the test taking population has swung so wildly the last two years. For example, SAT scores went up for the class of 2021 because low-scoring students had less incentive to find a test site during the pandemic. It had nothing to do with students actually performing better than they had in prior years.
Given the national numbers, I think we’ll see a few new lows this year. A state’s Semifinalist cutoff can not fall below the national Commended cutoff, so that will prevent the bottom falling out in some of the lower performing states.
I scored a 211, and my home state is Arkansas. Do I have any hope of being a semifinalist or possibly being commended?
Sarah,
The Semifinalist cutoff was 211 last year, so it is possible. In most years Arkansas has come in higher. If you do not make NMSF, your score is high enough that you will be a Commended Student.
What would you say the odds are for 211 being the cutoff this year for Arkansas?
Sarah,
The Arkansas cutoff has dropped as low as 211 twice in the last 10 years (and just last year!), so we know it’s possible. My estimate is that it will go up slightly, but I hope I’m wrong.
I got a 218 in Washington state. Odds of semifinalist?
Noah,
We haven’t seen Washington’s cutoff move below 220 on the new PSAT (introduced in 2015), so I think a 218 will fall just a little short for Semifinalist.
Hi Art,
Thank you for the detailed information! How do you feel about a 220 SI in Arizona? Thank you!
Julia,
A 220 will qualify in Arizona unless the state hits a new record, and I don’t see that happening this year. A 220 looks really good.
I got a 216 in michigan, what are my chances of being a semifinalist
K,
Michigan has gone down to 216 twice in the last 6 years, and I think it’s possible we’ll see it again this year. Scores look like they’ll come in low overall. I have to be consistent with my post and say that 217 is more likely, but I hope I’m wrong! It’s too close for us to know until September.
Hello Art, Thank you so much for your expertise and everything that you do! What do you feel would be a “rough” percentage chance of successfully being a Semi-Finalists with a 221 S.I. score in the State of Arizona? Appreciate you! Kind regards, Steve
Steve,
I don’t see any pathway to Arizona’s cutoff rising to 222. A 221 should be 100%. Congratulations!
Mr. Sawyer,
Thank you for your wealth of knowledge and taking the time to help us navigate NMSF. I see you moved the projected Texas most likely to 220. Does this give me a decent chance of being a NMSF with a 221 in Texas. I see that the range has it going from 218-222.
Sienna,
Texas’ cutoff has only hit 221 in years where we’ve seen a high Commended level. This looks to be a year with a low Commended level, which is why I’ve pegged 220 as my “Most Likely.” I use a range to remind students that there is a lot we don’t know about what happens at the state level, but it is hard to imagine Texas setting a new record in what seems to be a down year.
I scored a 217 in Tennessee. I know that should be good enough for commended, but how do my chances for semifinalist look?
A,
Tennessee is hard to handicap because the cutoff has bounced around. Even in the years with a low Commended cutoff, Tennessee’s cutoff has ranged from 215-218. Most recently it has been at 215, so that would be a positive way of looking at it. Sorry that I don’t have more information for you. It’s going to require patience until September.
Hello Art,
Thank you for generously spending so much time answering and helping all of us. My son scored a 222 SI on his PSAT in California. If the Commended list comes out sometime before summer and he is not on it, can we assume then that he qualified for Semi-final list? Thank you very much.
John,
I wish that were the case. The only thing that happens in spring is that the entire list of presumably honored students goes to principals [I say “presumably,” because it’s not final until it’s final]. Commended and Semifinalists are mixed together in the 50,000 or so names, one of which will be his. To be clear, those names are not publicly released.
My son scored 1330 in PSAT in junior school ( class of 2023 ) from Connecticut & his result shows NMSC Selection Index 202. Is there chance for him semifinalist?
Hetal,
Connecticut is one of the most competitive states, so I’m afraid that your son will not be Semifinalist. Best of luck to him during his testing and application process.
What are the chances that my daughters score of 1430 on the psat and a 215 composite in Idaho?
Craig,
They are strong. We’ve only seen Idaho’s cutoff move to 216 once recently, and that was in a year where scores trended high. Still, I don’t think we can think of 215 as guaranteed.
I received at 215 in Idaho, with the cutoff so much higher in states like California and Washington would there be any chance of being a finalist or do those positions go to the overall highest scores across the country?
Rachel,
I’d say the chances of you being a Semifinalist are quite good. As with Semifinalists, Finalists are geographically distributed, so you won’t need to worry about other states. It’s a bit more complex when talking about scholarships, since many of those depend on where you choose to go to college. The bottom line: Idaho students earn top awards every year. I’d focus on the things you can control — your SAT score, your grades, your essay, and your school recommendation.
Hi Art,
My son (2023 graduate) scored 224 in Virginia, Fairfax county school district. What is the chance of getting into the semifinalist.
Mitra,
It should be 100%. I doubt that we’ll ever see a cutoff of 225. Congratulations to your son.
Hello Art,
Thank you for the helpful article. I scored a 221 index in California. What do my chances look like?
Thanks.
Jane,
It’s probably close to 50/50 or a bit better. I’d say that there is a 90% chance that we’ll see a 221 or 222. Given the low number of high scores this year, I lean slightly toward 221.
Dear Art,
My son scored 220 in Oregon this year. What is his chance of becoming semifinalist? Is there any chance of cutoff going up for year 2023?
Amy,
I’d say that there is always a chance that a cutoff will increase, especially given that the class of 2022 also saw weak cutoffs. Your son is looking strong at 220, but I don’t think we can completely rule out a 221.
My daughter (class of 2023) scored 1480 PSAT in Maryland. Her NMSC Selection Index is 220. I saw the Maryland cuttoff score you predicted is 221. Is there still a chance for her to be semifinalist? She did better in her SAT test. Thanks in advance!
Rena,
Only the PSAT Selection Index is used in determining eligibility. Maryland is one of the most competitive states in the country, and it has been about a decade since its cutoff has fallen below 221. I did include 220 in my range of estimates, though, because it is not completely out of the question.
Hi Art,
My daughter got 224 selection index and 1490 total score in Virginia. How is her chance to be semi finalist?
Thanks,
ZJ,
I think it is a given that she will qualify. We’ve never seen a 225 cutoff, and I’m not sure that we ever will.