Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi Art,
Thanks for the article. I see that the max limit has dropped to 220 for NC. My son has an index of 220, class of 2023. What are his chances of becoming a semifinalist? Is there a chance of a new high being set in NC?
Sun,
I suppose that there is a chance of a new high, but it would be an exceedingly slim one given the trend we are seeing nationally. I’m reasonably confident that 220 will qualify as a Semifinalist this year.
Hi ARt,
I have a Q about the rural/small town National scholarship. How do you know what the cut-off for PSAT Fall 2021 is for the 90% percentile for the state of PA. We live in a small/rural town. Thanks for your guidance. Thank you. Kate
Kate,
College Board does not report this data. Unfortunately, there is not a good way of estimating it by state. To give the completely non-scientific response: fingers crossed.
My son (class of 2023) scored 212 in the PSAT in Tennessee. It does appear that he will miss the cut of scores based on the estimates, but is commended still a possibility?
What are the benefits of getting commended?
Marc,
Yes, he’ll almost certainly qualify as a Commended Student. For most Commended Students it is simply a recognition of a job well done. There are some company-sponsored National Merit scholarships that can go to Commended Students, but they are rare. You might check the College Confidential or Reddit forums to see if there are any colleges currently providing merit aid to Commended Students.
I do not have a full understanding how the scores work. My daughter score 190 but it says she is in the 96th percentile. Could you explain what that means?
Anon,
The 190 is what is known as a Selection Index, and its only use is for National Merit. That score won’t be high enough to achieve National Merit recognition, but let me try to explain the 96th percentile.
The percentile is probably based on her total score rather than her Selection Index. The percentile you are seeing is probably what College Board calls the Nationally Representative Sample Percentile. It’s a made up percentile based on an estimate of what would happen if every junior in the country took the PSAT. In reality, higher scoring students are more likely to take the PSAT. There is a second percentile called the User Percentile that compares students to others who have taken the PSAT. A 96th percentile score in the National Percentile is a 91st percentile score in User Percentile for juniors. Long explanation short: it sounds like your daughter is in the top 10% of students taking the PSAT.
Mr. Sawyer, your knowledge of these numbers is uncanny. You mention that a 190 is likely 91 percentile nationally. We were wondering what top 10% is for our state, Maryland, for hispanic recognition. (I think my son needs to be top 10% for that by state). Thanks
Juan,
I haven’t written much about the NHRP recently, because College Board has changed them so much as to be unrecognizable. College Board does not publish percentile charts by state. In looking at the class of 2020 numbers (I wanted to avoid the pandemic-impacted class of 2021), 4% had scores from 1400-1600 and 16% scored 1200-1390. That likely means that top 10% is going to fall around 1300 +-20 points. I wish I could be more accurate, and of course we don’t know how things played out this year. College Board, BTW, uses Total Scores rather than Selection Indexes. You may already know that your son can also qualify via 9th and 10th grade AP scores, if he has gotten 3 or above. It’s an either/or situation, so if he has 2 strong APs, then he doesn’t need to worry about his PSAT score (and vice versa).
Thanks.
He is right at 1300. We will let you know when we know.
Art, as promised letting you know about my son and Hispanic Recognition. A 1300 makes the cut in Maryland. Thanks
Thank you, Juan!
Hi Art,
Great articles! My daughter got a 219 in Florida, Class of 2023. Would you predict that she would be a Semi-Finalist?
Don,
Yes, your daughter will qualify as a Semifinalist with a 219. Congratulations!
My son scored a 220 index in Texas. I saw that you predicted a cutoff of 220, but previously had predicted 221 – do you think it is likely that he will be a semifinalist?
Joe,
The 220 was (is) my prediction after having had the opportunity to analyze the national results. Everything points to a year of low cutoffs. We can’t know that for sure, of course, but I think it’s more likely than not that a 220 will qualify in Texas.
Hi Art,
Thank you for all of your invaluable information! My son received a 217 Selection Index in Florida. How do you feel about his chances of becoming a Semifinalist? He received a 1540 on the SAT last month and will retake in March. Verbal 750, Math 790. Grammar is his weakness. Can you please recommend how he can improve his verbal score? Thank you!
FL Mom,
I think we’re likely to see a Florida cutoff of 216 or 217, so your son has a good chance of being a Semifinalist.
Grammar may be your son’s weakness, but he is not missing many problems with a 750. When a student misses 20 problems on a test, it’s is usually pretty easy to find areas for improvement. When a student is only missing 2 or 3 problems, it’s harder to pinpoint. He may be able to improve through practice alone.
My son scored a 219 as a sophomore in NC this past October. I understand he is not eligible to be considered a Semifinalist even if his score proves to meet the threshold this year because he is not a junior. If he ends up having a particularly bad test day when he sits for the test next year, as a junior, can his sophomore score be used to qualify if it is above threshold for next years test?
DJ,
Only the results of the junior year PSAT are considered for National Merit. On the bright side, if your son was able to score a 219 in sophomore year, he should be in good shape to do well in October. Best of luck!
Hi Art,
My daughter PSAT score just came in today (a month late!). Her index score is 220, class of 2023. Do you think she has a chance of becoming a semifinalist in Maryland?
Tony,
As you probably know, Maryland had the highest cutoff last year (something of a fluke), but always comes in top 5 or so. We haven’t seen a 220 cutoff in over a decade. This is an odd year, so I can’t say that there is no chance of a 220. More likely is a 221 or 222 cutoff.
Hello Art,
My son scored 1460 in PSAT 217 index in Junior year
Arizona cut of is 217 – 221
What do u think about his chances?
Shri,
It’s a long shot, but it’s not impossible. Arizona hasn’t seen a 217 cutoff since the class of 2015. We know that students didn’t do all that well on this PSAT, so it comes down to how much Arizona students struggled.
Hi Art,
Thank you for the detailed analysis and insight. How would you assess the chance of OR dropping to 218? Thank you in advance for your response.
I’m confident that we are going to see low numbers nationally. In the 3 years that has been true since the introduction of the new PSAT, Oregon has been at 219, 217, and 220 (although that 220 may have been impacted by Alternate Entry). So 218 is not out of the running. If I had to put a number on it, I’d say about 20% chance.
Hello Art, thank you for all the helpful insight. My son scored a 217 in New York, do you think there’s even a remote possibility that New York’s selection cutoff this year could drop to 217 or is it certain he may just miss it?
Rob,
In all the years I have been tracking cutoffs, I’ve yet to see NY at 217. My honest take is that your son won’t make it in a competitive state such as New York. Best of luck during the rest of this process!
My son got perfect math score in PSAT and SAT in October. His PSAT index I believe in 214 with a score of 1450. He is a junior from Oregon. What are his chances of alternate entry? how much should be get in SAT to be considered for alternate entry?
thanks,
Srividhya,
Alternate Entry is not available to students who have PSAT scores. Your son will qualify as a Commended Student based on his 214.
We’re new to this. My son has a 215 in Missouri. I’m really hoping Missouri is a state that hasn’t varied much (historically) from your predictions. Are you feeling pretty confident in the 215? Please say yes. 🙂
DJ,
I feel like a 215 is a good candidate. I’m not sure that I’d go as far as pretty confident. In one of the 3 “down years” — class of 2017 — Missouri had a 216. In the other 2 it was 214 and 214. So there is precedence for a 216 — even in a weak year nationally — but I wouldn’t say it’s the leading precedent. Don’t let what I say discourage you, since we are all just speculating until September. Positive thoughts!
Hi Art,
Thank you for the wealth of knowledge you provide!
How confident are you regarding a Selection Index of 217 for Florida? Could that number go even lower?
I think your original projected Selection Index for Florida was 218, but then it was determined that 2023 PSAT scores across the US
came in lower than expected.
Have you received any additional information regarding score projections / why scores were much lower than expected?
Do you think there was an issue with the test itself? Is it strictly pandemic-related? Something else?
Thanks again, Art!
Meredith,
My really late reply. I think 217 is the most likely cutoff. Is a 216 possible? I don’t think we can exclude it (or a 218), but I’d peg the odds at maybe 20-25%.
No definitive information, but the low percentage of high scores indicates poor test performance as opposed to the test cancellations that impacted scores last year. That poor performance could be the result of an anomalous PSAT (as it was for the class of 2021) or could indicate that even top students have struggled during the pandemic.
What are your views on 221 for Virginia this year? Its in the lower part of your range, but what would you say the odds that qualifies are?
Emanuel,
I actually have it as my “most likely” cutoff. In the years with generally weak scores (Commended < 210), Virginia has come in at 221. Reasons I can't exclude 222 or 223: 1) I could be wrong about the trend. 2) Virginia could zig while other states zag, especially given the uneven impact of the pandemic. Good luck!
I have a two part question: My daughter (IL) scored a 1460 on the SAT in IL last summer before her junior year and then scored a 1460 on the PSAT. However, the SAT points = 216, while the PSAT points = 220. Given your adjusted estimate of 219 for Illinois, what odds would you give a score of 220? It looks like on all of the low national years, IL was 218 or 219. Also, assuming she does make semi-finalist based upon her score, would the summer SAT score of 1460 be acceptable to confirm, even though the score is the same, but the SAT points = 216? Thanks!
Keith,
Sorry for the slow reply. Unless I’m wrong about this being a down year, a 220 looks very strong in Illinois. As you say, it’s only been 221 in years where the Commended cutoff was 211/212. The Commended level usually leaks out in late April and will confirm (or disprove) my findings on the overall trend. It won’t guarantee IL’s cutoff, but it would provide a bit more reassurance.
Yes, a 216 will be a sufficient confirming score. The confirming score is a national number that is usually set at the Commended level. Your daughter’s score clears it with ease.
Hi Art,
Thanks for all the info and comments! My daughter is in the 2023 class. She got an index score of 224 on the PSAT in Virginia. How is her chance to be a semifinalist?
Thanks,
ZJC
ZJC,
I doubt that we’ll ever see a 225 NMSF cutoff from the PSAT, so I think your daughter is safe. The only remote possibility of a 225 would have to involve a never-before-seen level of Alternate Entry. 1) Cancellations were modest this year, so AE should be less of a factor. 2) Even with AE, I don’t see a 224 missing out in Virginia.
My son is at 222 in NJ so it appears we’re right on the edge of making/not making the cut. At this point, are we just waiting until the early Fall to find out or does the cutoff usually leak before that point? Thanks in advance.
AJ,
The Commended cutoff usually leaks in April or May, but we won’t see any Semifinalist numbers until late August or early September.
Hi Art – Does the commended cutoff coming in at 207 change your prediction in any way re: NJ being 50/50 on 222 vs 223. With my son sitting on a 222, obviously he’s right on the fence here.
Thanks again.
Now that we know with certainty that the Commended cutoff is 207, things do look rosier for a 222 in NJ. I’d put it at 60/40 or better.
Hi Art,
Very detailed articles! My daughter got a 218 /1470 in North Caroline, Class of 2023. Would you predict that she could make the semifinalist?
John,
It’s going to be close. While I have 218 as my “most likely” cutoff, realistically we have to think of it as a range of possibilities from 216 to 220 (with the extreme values being the least likely). Best of luck to your daughter!
Very excited for these students! My son got a 227 SI in Louisiana. The future is so bright! I’m learning to be patient through this process. Thank you for all your wonderful advice on this website.
Congratulations to your son, Emily! I’m sure you are both anxious to make it official and have him move on to the Finalist stage, but I can assure you that it’s much easier to be patient with a 227!
When will the official list of Semifinalists be released for the Class of 2023?
Tiffany,
National Merit doesn’t publicly publish a list of Semifinalists. Instead, it mails lists to high schools at the end of August. It also provides lists to media outlets for publication in mid-September. Some schools wait until the press release date before notifying students.
Hi Art,
What are the chances of either a Commendation or Semi-Finalist with an Index Score of 216 in Colorado for the Class of 2023? Looks like it is just below what will be expected as the cutoff score for being considered a Semi-Finalist, but wondering if there’s still a slight possibility?
Thank you,
Tam
Tamara,
Colorado had been growing more competitive, but it took a step backwards with the class of 2021 (an oddly scaled test) and the class of 2022 (significant test cancellations). While the test taker numbers have bounced back this year, the results nationally point to another set of low cutoffs. Could CO drop to 216? Yes, I think there is a possibility. At minimum you will be named a Commended Student.
Mr. Sawyer: Thanks for the prediction. when will the cutoff be released for class of 2023?
Jenee,
NMSC mails information to schools in late August. It’s up to the school when to start notifying students, but most students hear in the first 2 weeks of September. Compass and others will try to get the cutoffs early enough in September that students won’t have to wait quite as long. Still, there is a long wait ahead of us.
Hi! I am in West Virginia and my score was a 213. Do you think I will qualify as a semi-finalist this year? Like are my chances good? I looked at your list from the class of 2008 to the class of 2022 and I saw that it has never gone above 212 in WV but I am unsure if I will qualify with the pandemic affecting numbers/test performance and whatnot. Please let me know what you think! Thank you!
Mary Sue,
Yes, I think you will qualify. Not only has WV not gone over 212 in that time, only in that period has it ever gone above the national Commended level. This year will almost certainly see a sub-210 Commended score, and West Virginia’s Semifinalist cutoff will be right there with it.
Thank you so much! This was reassuring! Sorry to bother you further, but what do you think my chances are percent wise? Thank you so much for your amazing articles and predictions! 🙂
I’m going to go out on a limb and say 99+%. There is just no indication that this is going to be a breakout year, and it would require a MAJOR breakout for West Virginia’s cutoff to move to 214.
Thank you for the kind words.
Wow, thank you so much! I feel a lot better about my chances now! You are doing amazing work and it should be commended! 🙂 Thank you again and have a great night!
Hi Art — I’m wondering why the most likely cutoff for DC is 223 when the highest cutoff for any state is 222 (MA/NJ). I thought DC’s cutoff was the same as the state with the highest cutoff, so wouldn’t that be 222? Thanks
Mary,
You are correct that DC’s cutoff will be the same as the highest state cutoff. However, that means that the probability of DC having a cutoff above 222 is greater than any single state having a 223 cutoff. Last year’s MD development made this risk plain. I think things have settled back close enough to normal that NJ will at least tie for the highest cutoff and DC would follow NJ. Listing DC as 223 is a reminder, though, that DC is subject to a breakthrough cutoff in other states.