Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi! Thanks for this great article. I just need a quick clarification. If a cut-off for semi-finalists is, say, 221, does that mean that 222 and above qualify, or 221 and above qualify?
Lizzie,
It means 221 and above qualify.
Thank you for this informative article! Any chance a 218 can qualify as a semifinalist in Georgia? Would appreciate the rationale for moving the cutoff estimate up one point to 219 from 218 last year?
Andy,
In a year where the national numbers look so similar to last year’s numbers, there is clearly an argument that most cutoffs will remain the same. So 218 is a good possibility. Why did I go with 219? I looked at the 4 years in the last 7 that are “low years.” Georgia’s cutoff was 219 in 3 of those years. That was my rationale, but I always recommend students reflect on the potential range.
Hi,
What is the likelihood of qualifying as a semifinalist with a 221 in California?
Also, once a student is qualified, does a student with lower index will automatically have lesser chance to be finalist compare to someone with higher index? Or the index doesn’t matter anymore once you are qualified as semifinalist?
Thank you
Prin,
I’d say that it is a a 75-90% likelihood. I don’t think California will go up by 2 points this year. The cutoff is a qualifying number and does not change one’s chances of being named a Finalist.
Art, thank you for the clear explanation. My daughter attends international school overseas and should be in the “study abroad” group, aka, the highest national cut-off line. She got 222 (1490). Are we still looking at MD, NJ and DC this year? Any more information sharing for this special group? thank you!
SG,
As goes NJ, so goes the overseas selection unit. No, I don’t have any insight into what is going to happen in NJ this year. Good luck!
After reading all of the comments, it seems like a 218 in Florida is very likely for NM. Thank you for all of this information.
Christa,
You are correct. I don’t see how Florida could bounce to 219.
Hi Mr.Sawyer, My scored high on English but did bad on Math. Her PSAT index is 208. Does commended cutoff only look at index not the actual past score? Thanks
Tammy,
National Merit only looks at the Selection Index.
Hi! I’m an Ohio junior with a selection index score of 220. What do you think my chances of making it to the semifinalist level are?
Asunator,
You will be a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
CT Junior here with index score of 222. What’s the chance CT cut off will go up more than 2 points this year?
Liana,
No chance that CT will go to 223 this year. Congratulations!
Hi Art,
For some reason , user can not see older comment. We can only see the last reply to Asunator. Clicking on “Older Comment” also doesnt do anything.
I am curious to read your response to my query but I cant get to ti.
AFU,
It’s a bug with our website software. If you right click on Older Comments and open in a new tab, you should be able to navigate to previous comments. Oh, and I just answered your original question!
Hi Art, My daughter is a junior in CA, with selection index score of 221. She may qualify for the selection. Do you know when she need to take SAT exam to be consider? Thank you!
Amy,
Technically she has until Dec 2023 to take the SAT for Finalist consideration, but I would never recommend waiting that long! She can also take the ACT if she prefers.
Hi. I have a selection index score of 221 in Georgia. What do you think my chance of become a semifinalist is?
Joseph,
100%. Congratulations!
Hi!
I got a 219 in Texas. Should I be an NMSQT Semifinalist? Is this prediction certified?
Anon,
I think it is likely a toss-up between 219 and 220. I am not affiliated with National Merit, so this is not at all certified. Semifinalists won’t be announced until September 2023.
Daughter in Ohio with index of 208. Odds of getting Commended?
Thank you so much for this wonderful resource.
Thomas,
There is a chance that we see a Commended mark of 209, but I think your daughter’s chances are in the 80+% range.
Hi – my daughter is a Florida junior with an index score of 218, has the index score been set for 2024? I see the chart shows range and most likely. Thanks!
Lili,
These are only my estimates, and I am not affiliated with National Merit. The official announcements will not be made until September 2023. Very unofficially, I can say that there is zero chance that Florida’s cutoff will be above 218 this year.
Hi!
I got a 222 but live in NJ. Do you think I still have a chance of being a semi-finalist?
Nina,
I do think you have a chance. In the 4 years that I consider low years nationally, NJ has come in at 222 in 3 of them. It’s something of a toss-up.
Any updates or ideas on if scores are likely to drop of go up for louisiana? or are you thinking 213?
Maddie,
No new updates. My most likely for LA is 213.
Hi Art,
Thanks so much for your helpful blog posts! My son has a selection index of 218 and is in Colorado. Do you think it’s possible that the cutoff could increase to 219, or can we safely assume that he will be named a NMSF in Sept.?
Your son has a good chance at being named a Semifinalist. Unfortunately, his score is not high enough where he can be considered safe. Best of luck next summer!
My son took the PSAT as a sophomore with a score of 211. Unfortunately his score dropped this year to a 206…and he is looking at a school which gives full tuition for a commended scholar. That’s a hard one to take when just a couple questions could have made the difference.
Laura,
It’s a lot of pressure for a single test on a single day. Let’s hope that the Commended level declines just a bit more.
Hello Mr. Sawyer,
With a 216 and in 99 percentile in GA, will my child has any chance to be named Commended Students by NMSC. Thank you!
Annie
Annie,
Your student’s score may fall a bit short of the Semifinalist cutoff, but is high enough that your student will receive Commended honors.
Very interesting article. Given your suggestion to use the “range” as an indicator for semi-finalist cutoff, a score of 222 in Texas has a fairly good chance. In your opinion, will that score make the “finalist” list?
Kevin,
Thank you for thinking in terms of ranges! There is no chance that a 223 falls within Texas’s range. A 222 will achieve Semifinalist honors. Finalist is a different stage in the competition and does not involve the Selection Index. Instead, Semifinalists submit an application, including an essay. NMSC considers your grades and school recommendation. You must also obtain a “confirming” SAT or ACT score, which basically means a score at around the level of the Commended cutoff (about 1400).
Hi,
For Illinois, my stuent has a 218 selection index. What is the likelihood of qualifying as national merit semi-finalist from Illinois? Since Illinois selection index did go up by 1 point for class of 2023 – do you think that upward trend will continue for class of 2024? Also does having a 99th percentile in both Reading/Writing and Math play a role in what the national merit semi-finalist qualifying selection index will be for Illinois?
Sang,
We can’t call a 1-year change a trend. There is a chance that Illinois’ cutoff will drop back to 218. No, the percentiles do not provide insight, unfortunately. They are based on previous years data and are estimates of a percentile rank if every junior in the country took the PSAT. We won’t know how IL students actually performed until later Aug/early September.
My child also scored a 218 in IL. I see your predicted cutoff is 219… would you put 218 as a slim chance, or more like 25-30%. Just trying to manage his expectations. Thank you so much for your thoughts!
Julie,
A 1-point drop would not be unusual, so I think it’s closer to 25-30% than it is to “slim.”
My son got 226 (Delaware), he says it does not guarantee any thing beyond becoming a semifinalist, is that true?
Steven,
Congratulations to your son! He is correct. The Finalist stage is completely separate and depends on grades, a confirming score on the SAT or ACT (just getting an SAT score at around the Commended level), and a recommendation from his school. He will also submit an essay. Most Semifinalists become Finalists.
Thanks for the information, appreciate that. So a selected semifinalist student should get equal or more SAT score than raw score of PSAT to remain competitive in next step?
More than the Commended Selection Index, which will probably be around 207-209. I’d recommend at least a 1400.
Hi,
Thank you for such an informative article! My child received a score of 209 in New Mexico. Do you think that will be commended or semi-finalist?
New Mexico’s most recent cutoffs have been 210 and 208, so it is definitely possible that your student is named a Semifinalist. Your student should at least be named Commended.
Hey Art,
I have kind of a double situation. One of my children lives in alabama and got a 220 index and the other lives in Louisiana and got a 212. Any insight or opinions on national merit for them? thanks
Grace,
Your student in Alabama will qualify as a Semifinalist next September. It’s going to be a waiting game for your student in LA. While Louisiana’s cutoff has gone as low as 212 (most recently in the class of 2021), it’s cutoff usually falls higher than that.
Hello! I scored an index of 215 and I live in Texas. Is this enough for Semifinalist or does it fall short?
Dav U,
A 215 will fall short of Semifinalist. You will be named a Commended Student.