Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi Mr Sawyer. I have a 217 Selection Index in CO. What are the odds of making semi-finalist?
Jen,
Based on historical data when the Commended cutoff does not change, I think we’ll see 60-70% of states hold steady or see lower cutoffs. That’s probably a fair estimate for the odds of a 217 qualifying in Colorado. We’ll know in the next 2-3 weeks.
Chances for semi with 215 in AZ?
Aymen,
You may not have received my previous reply. Please let us know when you get word, as it will be helpful for others.
Original reply:
Arizona’s recent past shows why it can be difficult to predict a cutoff. If we look at last year’s 214, things look good. In the preceding 7 years, though, Arizona’s cutoff was no lower than 218. I’d say that it is something of a toss-up at 215.
Didnt make it 🙁
Aymen,
Sorry to hear that. It’s very kind of students to pass information along, even when it is disappointing. Thank you, and best of luck with your applications!
my buddy with 216 got it so AZ cutoff is 216
Thanks, Aymen!
Thank you for sharing. My son got a 215 as well, so I really appreciate the information. Great job on such an amazing score and everything moving forward.
Good Morning Mr. Sawyer,
I received a selection index of 206 and I am wondering if there is any chance I will be commended since the range provided is 206-209. Thank you for your work!
Navam,
Unfortunately, we confirmed that the Commended cutoff came in at 207 this year.
Mr Sawyer,
My son got a 217 in New York. What chance he gets semi final status? Thank you
Max,
New York’s cutoff has not dropped below 219 in the last decade. While a 2-point drop is not out of the question, it would be highly unusual in such a large state.
Hello Mr. Sawyer. What do you think my chances are with a 218 in Georgia? Last year the cut off was 218, but it was 219 for the past few years before that.
NY already released semi-finalist. Your son should received a letter from his school if he is in.
That’s right, Jason, although I try to remind folks that schools may not release letters for another 2 weeks.
Hi Mr Sawyer,
Just curious to understand why NMSC takes a year to process cutoffs, when all the data is already available post PSAT. in October?
Also, how is it that we know the cut offs for FL earlier than the other states? Are we relying on students who received letters to confirm cutoffs?
Do we have any information on NYS final cutoff?
Andy,
There are some practical reasons — NMSC has to verify eligibility with schools — but some of it simply boils down to how NMSC likes to manage the scholarship program calendar. In the fall, it is dealing with choosing Finalists (seniors). In the spring, it moves over to working with colleges on scholarship matching. So the late spring and summer is when it switches attention to determining Semifinalists. And since they depend on having schools back in session, there is not point in mailing letters much before Labor Day.
Most reports come from students. I’m fortunate to have received word from a knowledgable source in Florida. Most reports won’t pick up for another week. Nothing on NY yet. Please do share if you find out your status!
Good morning Mr. Sawyer! Thank you for posting the FL cutoff. I have a 217 so I assume we will receive letters in 2-3 weeks to let us know what our next steps are, right? What would increase my chance to get a NM Scholarship (I have a 4/4 GPA, 35 ACT–superscored). I also have a question about what to send NMSC with regard to ACT report. I read that they don’t accept superscore, so should I send my highest one sitting test score report (which is 34) or a superscore report so they can see my highest section scores? Thank you!
Luke,
Congratulations! When your school passes out letters (yes, probably within 2-3 weeks), you’ll receive login information to NMSC’s Online Scholarship Application. You’ll fill out basic information and write an essay (the prompt has remain unchanged for years, so it will likely be the same as found here). You’ll also need a recommendation from your school. Your GPA is important — sounds like you are in great shape. You are correct that NMSC does not superscore. An ACT superscore report will include your highest sitting, but I’d probably just keep it simple and report the scores from the relevant test date. They will only consider the scores from a single test date. A 34 will be high enough as a confirming score. You can find more details at the same link above.
Dear Mr. Sawyer
How about Hawaii? My child has 216 index. Does she have a chance to be semifinalist?
Hope,
She certainly has a chance. We’ve seen 217 and 215 the last two years. I expect about 60% of state cutoffs will remain unchanged.
Hi Mr. Sawyer! What do you think the odds are a 218 in NY being a semifinalist? I know a lot of states’ cutoffs are dropping, but is it reasonable for the cutoff to drop by one in a large state?
A 1-point drop is not that unusual (maybe 25% in a mostly flat year). On the other hand, it’s been more than a decade since NY has been at 218. So maybe 15-20%? We’ll know as soon as more students receive their letters.
Hello,
I am a student in Nebraska. My principal read off a list of “National Merit” individuals at a school assembly that took place on August 16th. One of those individuals was myself, (Index of 210), as well as a friend (selection index of 209). My principal later stated that this list was specifically National Merit Semifinalists. Would it be possible for my school to receive a letter that early? And is it truly Semifinalists, or could it be Commended?
Thank you, and please ask for any needed clarification.
Logan,
Thanks for sharing this information. Let me admit right up front that I don’t have a definitive answer on this one. In the “Yes, it was NMSFs” column would be (a) that your principal was specific about it and (b) that it was in mid-August and not, let’s say, mid-June. In the “Hmm, something doesn’t sound right” column would be that (a) this would be the earliest I have heard of a school announcing Semifinalists and (b) 209 is lower than I’d expect as a Nebraska cutoff (but not beyond reason).
In late spring, schools receive a list of students continuing in the National Merit competition — effectively a list of Commended and Semifinalists, but without those distinctions yet made. So it’s possible that your principal was talking generally about students receiving National Merit honors. I’ve seen that mistake made before. Since your principal has already made the announcement, I’d be tempted to follow up. “I’d love to share the letter with my parents.” Or, “I’m working on my college applications and would like to mention my NM status.” I hope it’s good news!
Good morning!
Our child received a 223 selection index as a U.S. citizen studying abroad.
If the cutoff remains at 223, does it qualify as a SF or does one have to have a score higher than 223.
What are the chances of the cutoff increasing to 224?
Mail can be slow from the U.S. to abroad. If our child indeed qualifies and mail is slow, should our child/we/the school call after September 13th to retrieve the login information in order to make the October deadline? How do you recommend approaching it.
Many thanks for your time and guidance.
Anon,
Students qualify if they are at the cutoff or higher. So if the cutoff remains at 223, then your student will be a Semifinalist. Realistically, there are only 3-4 states that could ever get to 224 — New Jersey, Massachusetts, Virginia, and Maryland. I don’t think we’ll see 224 out of any of them this year, but conservatively we might call it a 25% chance.
Hi Mr. Sawyer, so is an NMSC selection index of 216 guaranteed for Semifinalist in FL this year? My son has exactly a 216 and not sure if the official cutoff means more than 216 or 216 and more. Please let me know!
Sam,
Yes, all students with the cutoff score (216) or higher will qualify as Semifinalists in FL. Congratulations to your son!
Do the students only find out “officially” via their school? Does this not pop up somewhere in their College Board account?
Jenn,
All Semifinalist and Commended information is sent to the schools for sharing with students. There is no indication in the College Board account. It’s not until the Finalist stage, when students have applied via NMSC’s portal that the organization communicates directly with students.
Chances of semifinalist with a 224 in NJ
Joshua,
No news out of NJ yet, but I don’t think we’ll ever see a 225 cutoff. Certainly not this year. You will be a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
Any word about the cutoff score from Arkansas? Thank you!
Bob,
Nothing yet. We’ll start getting more information next week. Please let me know what you find out if you receive a notification. Thanks!
Letter received by school in CA and news passed on to student by college counselor. 223 was the student’s SI. We were pretty sure she made it, but nice to get that confirmation.
Lori,
Congratulations, and thanks for sharing! Even when it’s a “sure thing,” there is a sense of relief when the notification arrives.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
What is your source for the official state semi-finalist cut scores? I wasn’t able to corroborate through the College Board website and I didn’t think they were available to the public for 2-3 more weeks. TIA!
Jen
Jen,
My information in unofficial, but I try to highlight when I know it is accurate (as I did with Florida). NMSC does not provide any public information about Semifinalists (other than what it sends to schools) until after the press release date, which I believe will be September 13th. College Board is not involved in National Merit other than the fact that it is responsible for the PSAT/NMSQT.
Ohio homeschool student w/ SI of 220 rec’d NMSF letter yesterday.
Anon in OH,
Thank you for the information, and congratulations to your student!
Any word on Alaska? Our schools are notoriously known for not knowing anything about NM. I asked our counselor about a timeline for semi finalist name release and he said… I don’t know…‘I think it is sometime in march. Yikes. I am terrified that the letter will be mistaken for junk mail and I won’t get notified if I indeed make the cutoff
Sammie,
Nothing. Worst case you will learn the cutoff from Compass or you’ll be able to call NMSC after the press release date to establish your qualification.
Any idea about Tennessee yet? Daughter has 215 and I’m wondering about her chances.
Elizabeth,
No reports yet. In years where the Commended cutoff is steady, we can usually count on about two-thirds or more Semifinalist cutoffs to remain the same or go lower. Given that TN has been at 215 the last 3 years, 60-70% is probably a fair estimate.
Unfortunately heard yesterday that need to be above a 216 for TN
Do you know if there are specific instructions in the letter sent to schools to not disclose the results to students until mid September? When my older son was an NMF, we asked the counselor the end of August about the letter and he passed along the info. But now there’s a new counselor and she’s saying that she can’t disclose the results until weeks from now.
Mel,
I don’t have the exact language handy, but NMSC leaves it vague and asks that schools not make the information “public” until the press release date. I’d estimate that half of schools interpret this to mean that telling students is acceptable. The information is not being shared publicly, but between school and student. Publicizing it in the school newspaper should wait. However, about half of schools interpret the instructions to mean that schools should keep the information secret until the press release date. While I’m certainly in the first camp — NMSC could easily specify that schools not tell students — it’s best not to get into a dispute with a counselor. After all, she will be guiding the student through the Finalist process and may be in charge of the recommendation. You’ve just got to hold on two more weeks. Or until Compass can determine the cutoffs.
Son with 220 SI in MS received NMSF letter yesterday. Letter specifically said it could be given to student to share with his family, but that nothing should be shared publicly until Sep 13.
Hi Mr. Sawyer, Any further thoughts on the Georgia cutoff? My son has a score index of 220. Thanks!
Kat,
No new news, but I remain confident that 220 will hold in Georgia. I don’t expect any states to set new records this year.
Hello Mr. Sawyer. I got a 218 in Georgia. Last year this was the cutoff however it was 219 for the years prior. What are your thoughts on Georgia’s cutoff and do you think a 218 is enough?
I don’t think we know enough about Georgia to say much more than 50/50 for a 218.
219 is Semifinalist in Georgia. I am not sure how low it goes. Found out two days ago.
Congratulations! I’ll update Georgia’s information now.
Hello. My son got an index of 218 in pa. What are his chances?
Anon,
I’d say that it’s in the 70-80% range. In the last 7 years, PA’s cutoff has gone above 218 3 times, but those have all been in “up” years, where the Commended level fell above 210.
HS Principal in Texas confirmed he has received the list. But will not announce until Sept. 13th.
Any word re Texas?
No Texas results yet.
My child was shown the Texas list today and they made it with a 219.
Texas,
Congratulations! So we now know that Texas has not gone up. Thank you for sharing.
Was 219 a yes or a no for semifinalist? I understand your comment to be yes, but Art’s response sounded like no.
Another,
It was a yes. Sorry, if my comment was confusing. I meant that the Texas cutoff can be no higher than 219. It’s still possible that it is lower.
Thank you for sharing! My child got a 221 in Texas but her school has not notified her yet.
Congratulations!
Any updates re: Texas? Son has a 218 and we’re on pins and needles.
Nothing beyond what I’ve already noted. Fingers crossed.
Thank you! 🤞
Son with 220 SI in MS received NMSF letter yesterday. Letter specifically said it could be given to student to share with his family, but that nothing should be shared publicly until Sep 13.
Anonymous,
It’s always frustrating that so many schools won’t share the information with families. Thank you for the confirmation, and congratulations to your son!
Hello Mr. Sawyer, What are the chances for 221 in California. No communication from school as yet.
I think the chances are good (maybe 70-80%). California has hit 222 and 223, but those were in years where most scores skewed high. This is a “down” year.
My daughter with a 222 SI in California received her letter today.
Congratulations! I will update the information on California. Thank you.
My daughter in CA with a 221 SI received word from her guidance counselor that she is a Semi-Finalist.
Congratulations to your daughter! The 221 will come as a relief to many students. Thank you.