April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
My son in Iowa is a semi-finalist with a 219.
Thank you for sharing this, Kellie. Congratulations to your son!
So bummed to hear about NJ cutoff. My son at 222 will not qualify then ☹️
New Jersey’s cutoff can be demoralizing. Your student did splendidly, and I’m sure he has done well on the SAT.
Art – what’s your best estimate of how many 228 index scores are there each year?
SG,
I haven’t tried to compute it recently. College Board’s data doesn’t go granular enough, but based on distribution estimates, I believe I pegged things at between 0.05% and 0.1% of test takers. So probably 1,000 – 1,500 students.
Any info from MD? My son got a 220 and was disappointed for half a year. But it seems some hope this year? Thanks.
I’m afraid that the information I have for him will be disappointing. MD will come in at 221 this year.
Do you think the 223 for U.S. citizen studying abroad category will qualify for SF status given NJ is 223 and MD 221? Again, thank you.
Anon,
Yes, 223 will qualify.
Hi Art,
Is this score cutoff confirmed? There are no updates about this in the BREAKING section or any other indication you provided about this cutoff. Would greatly appreciate the info!
Menelik,
Yes, the Maryland cutoff is confirmed at 221.
Thanks, Art. Didn’t see this shown above in your updates for today but it’s good to know the MD cutoff is also confirmed. This site is a wonderful resource. My daughter has a 223 in MD and we are anxiously awaiting a formal confirmation from her school.
She should hear this week or next (the 9/13 press release date).
Art – FYI, Maryland is missing from your list above.
Fixed. Thank you!
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
Are there multiple and verifiable reports for ≤221 in California? Scored 221 and afraid to get my hopes up too fast.
Yes, I am confident of 221 in CA. Congratulations!
Any news on a 220 cutoff for CA?
The cutoff is 221 this year.
It is crazy that NJ’s is at least 2 higher than CA.
You haven’t heard yet if 220 is a yay or nay in CA, correct? Crossing our fingers, thanks!
Jean,
Unfortunately CA’s cutoff is at 221 this year.
What do you think the chances are with a 214 in WI?
I think 214 will qualify in Wisconsin.
Any info on KY please?
AB,
Kentucky’s cutoff has dropped a point to 211.
Hi Art!
I got a 220 in CA this year. What would you say are my chances?
Ash,
We’ve now confirmed the cutoff is at 221 for CA.
Hi Art
Have you received any final confirmation for Texas ?
Thank you for all you do.
Tom
Tom,
Yes, Texas will remain at 219 this year.
Do you think my son who got a 220 could get California?
John,
Unfortunately, California’s cutoff is now confirmed at 221.
Should I contact our school next week if we haven’t heard from them? I am in Alabama and my son has a 223 but no word yet from the school. Is it possible that they think the National Merit Corporation will contact him or does the Corporation make it clear to the school that they have to inform the student?
Ash,
Many schools wait until the press release date of September 13 to distribute National Merit information to students. It’s not at all unusual that your son has not yet received word from his school. I would wait until the 13th or 14th to contact them. Your son will clearly qualify as a Semifinalist, so I would rest easy. NMSC won’t confirm his qualification until after the press release date, but you can also call them at that point. They’ll still point you back to the school get the letter with your son’s instructions for next steps. And, congratulations!
Thanks so much for the thorough and informative response. I didn’t realize that about the press release. Very excited about the possibilities this opens up for our small town Alabama boy!
It is sad that my son missed the cut off by 1 point for CA, he has 760 for math but 720 for the reading, which decreased his overall score. If his math is at 740 and reading is at 740, then he would be scored at 222. How odd the calculation is! Thank you for the info!
Liz,
Congratulations on your son’s perfect PSAT Math score. Yes, the scoring can be particularly unforgiving in states with high cutoffs.
Are there multiple and verifiable reports for ≤210 in Oklahoma?
Ivan,
Currently we have a report of a 210 qualifying. I’m not in a position to check IDs, but the report is credible.
Hi,
Is there any update on whether a 220 on California will qualify for semifinalist?
John,
A 220 will fall just short this year. California’s cutoff is confirmed at 221.
Would be nice to know WA cutoff; resigned to son’s 219 probably not making it (and not too concerned; it is a nice honor but not as important as it used to be), but as John Cleese said in Clockwork; “It’s not the despair. I can take the despair. It’s the hope!”
Anonymous,
Thank you for the Cleese reference! Alas, Washington’s cutoff is confirmed at 220.
You might want to update in the the list if it is confirmed (still at > or =). Also, the movie is Clockwise not Clockwork, but the quotation is still valid! Thanks for taking the time to get this info out.
Updated. Thank you!
Art, any info on NH?
FCinNH,
I’ve heard from a student with a 214 in NH who did not qualify. This means the cutoff is 215 or higher.
Thanks Art. So what are the chances for 215 qualifying in NH? Thanks!
I’d say it’s 90%+.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
Are there multiple reports for 219 as the cut off in Texas?
SA,
Yes, 219 is confirmed as the Texas cutoff.
Is it at all possible for a cutoff score of 216 in Illinois? Should I keep my hopes up?
Haroldas,
I’m afraid that Illinois’ cutoff will be higher than 216 this year.
But the Illinois cutoff is for sure 219, as reflected above? Just making sure, since I haven’t seen any comments or Reddit posts reflecting that. My kid will miss it by 1, looks like 🙁
Yes, the 219 cutoff is confirmed. I’m sorry to hear that your student missed out.
I am in california and received 220. Is 221 confirmed?
MA,
221 is confirmed.
So based on the stats above, a 222 SI is confirmed for MA and will be NMSF? Thanks!
David,
That’s correct. A 222 qualifies for NMSF in MA.
Any word about selection index for the state of Oregon?
Waiting anxiously …
Waiting here, too.
Have you received any reports from WI? What are the chances with a 213? Thanks!
Lucey,
I’m confident that 213 will hold up in WI. Congratulations!
How confirmed is this? Do you have any reports on Wisconsin yet or is this just an assumption that it will not increase considering the outcomes of the rest of the country? Just want to have concrete confirmation because there was an issue with the wrong school being reported on my PSAT, so my school may or may not receive my letter and info. My counselor said she was working on it, but nothing has changed in my college board portal.
Lucey,
Reports confirm Wisconsin at 213.
As of the 13th, you should be able to call NMSC and clarify your status. The press releases also organize students by school. If one of the Wisconsin papers prints the whole list, you’ll find there how they have assigned you. I wouldn’t worry much quite yet. The CB Portal is not the same as what NMSC uses.
What do you think of a 217 in Michigan?
Alex,
I think you’ll be receiving a letter from your school as a NMSF.
Any word on Arkansas? Will a 210 be good enough?
Mark,
Yes, 210 will work in Arkansas!
Hi Mr. Sawyer! My son received a selection index of 216 in South Carolina. Since it looks like the cutoff score will be 210, I’m guessing that he will be a semi-finalist. What are your thoughts?
Gen,
The SC cutoff is 210 or lower, so your son’s 216 will qualify. Congratulations!
have your confirmed cutoffs ever changed? how confirmed is confirmed -i.e is a reddit post assumed to be true? am thinking about CT specifically, but also thinking in general.
thx
John,
CT’s cutoff is confirmed confirmed at 221.