**Updated with information from released October 2026 PSAT scores as of November 6.**
If you’d like, jump right to the Compass Projections and State Explorer and then come back for the commentary.
The junior-year PSAT is also the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (NMSQT). Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 55,000 test takers. To be included in that group, students must be among the top 4% of the 1.3 million eligible students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 16,500 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Some colleges provide significant scholarships and even full rides for Finalists. The remaining 39,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post. If you are looking for Compass’s archived report on the class of 2027 results, find it here.
Calculating the Selection Index
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index is calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW score and a 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214: (720 x 2 + 700) ÷ 10. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). The weighting of the index means that not all students with the same Total Score have the same SI. “Will a 1450 qualify?” is not the right question. Instead, ask whether a student with a 750 RW and 700 M will qualify.
How Semifinalist cutoffs are set in each state
NMSC allocates a target number of Semifinalists to states based on their population of high school graduates, not all of whom take the PSAT. If Texas is allocated 1,500 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. In the class of 2027, 1,462 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. As scores go lower, more and more students occupy each level, and where the crowd forms does not stay consistent from year to year. It is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance. All students at or above a cutoff qualify.
Predicting scores for the class of 2028
The journey to National Merit is a long one. Semifinalists aren’t notified until September 2027, and Finalists might not hear until February 2028. Compass’s research aims to fill in some of the gaps during the long wait.
Approximately 80% of scores have been released by the first week in November. College Board only summarizes PSAT scores in broad ranges. The top range of 1400 to 1520 has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff and the overall trend in Semifinalist cutoffs.
Based on the scores released to date, Compass expects between 52,000 and 60,000 students to score in the top range, with 55,000 as the most likely figure. That’s only modestly above the 52,300 in the class of 2027, which is why Compass projects this year’s most likely Commended figure to be 209. Compass’s model assumes, based on prior years, that later scores will skew lower than earlier scores. However, we don’t yet know how many scores will be released in the final score release wave. We retain the possible Commended range of 207 – 211 to allow for uncertainty.
Comparing RW and Math scores also suggests moderation this year
Students considering their odds of qualifying as National Merit Semifinalists often look in horror at the class of 2026 cutoffs, which were among the highest recorded since the revised PSAT was introduced for the class of 2017. Compass has shown that those high cutoffs can likely be attributed to poor scaling of the RW section on the 2024 PSAT. Because RW receives double weight in the Selection Index, the scaling problem had an outsized impact on cutoffs, with New Jersey’s reaching 225. The good news is that this year’s results look more like those from the classes of 2025 and 2027 than they do those from the class of 2026. There are more high Math scores than RW scores (about a 1.33 to 1 ratio), which should keep the highest cutoffs in check. On average, Semifinalist cutoffs may see some upward movement, but there is no evidence of a spike.
Below is a chart of RW, Math, and Total scores over the 3 prior years, with estimates for the class of 2028. Final numbers should be available by November 13.
Did I make it?
A student’s natural instinct is to look at the prior year’s cutoff and ask, “Did I make it?” The historical record shows the shortcomings of that strategy. From the class of 2011 to the class of 2027, there has never been a year in which even half of the state cutoffs remained unchanged. Even with the added insight of national results, students should consider the likely range of cutoffs rather than focusing on a single score.
Semifinalist trends over time
In October 2015, the PSAT moved to a 320–1520 scale, which was set to provide vertical alignment with the SAT’s 400–1600 scale. The class of 2017 was the first group of students taking the redesigned PSAT/NMSQT, so the fairest comparisons are among the last eleven graduating classes.
Note how the Commended cutoff and state averages tend to track one another in the chart above. The chart below shows that there is more volatility in individual states, and more volatility in smaller states, but few states move against a rise or fall in the Commended level. We cannot assume, however, that the magnitude of the change will always be the same. We have an estimate of the Commended cutoff — a suspected 1-point increase — but won’t have confirmation until April.
Projections for the class of 2028: Consider the ranges.
In addition to our 50-state cutoff projections, Compass provides a deep dive into each state. Enter your own Selection Index or section scores to see how you stack up historically. The estimates consider state size, prior cutoffs and volatility, and Commended values.
As of 11/6/26, forecasted ranges combine historical data with early PSAT score information. The Commended cutoff will be confirmed in April.
Class of 2028 estimates by state
| State | Class of 2028 estimate | Past cutoffs | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most likely | Estimated range | 2027 | 2026 | 2025 | |
| Alabama | 212 | 210–214 | 210 | 214 | 212 |
| Alaska | 211 | 209–214 | 208 | 215 | 214 |
| Arizona | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 218 | 217 |
| Arkansas | 212 | 210–214 | 210 | 215 | 213 |
| California | 221 | 220–223 | 220 | 224 | 221 |
| Colorado | 217 | 216–219 | 217 | 219 | 218 |
| Connecticut | 221 | 219–222 | 220 | 223 | 221 |
| Delaware | 219 | 216–221 | 219 | 220 | 219 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| Florida | 217 | 215–218 | 216 | 219 | 217 |
| Georgia | 218 | 216–219 | 217 | 220 | 218 |
| Hawaii | 217 | 215–219 | 218 | 219 | 217 |
| Idaho | 213 | 210–215 | 211 | 215 | 213 |
| Illinois | 219 | 218–221 | 218 | 222 | 220 |
| Indiana | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 218 | 217 |
| Iowa | 211 | 209–213 | 210 | 214 | 212 |
| Kansas | 214 | 212–216 | 212 | 216 | 215 |
| Kentucky | 212 | 210–214 | 211 | 214 | 213 |
| Louisiana | 213 | 211–215 | 211 | 216 | 214 |
| Maine | 214 | 212–217 | 214 | 217 | 214 |
| Maryland | 222 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| Massachusetts | 222 | 221–224 | 221 | 225 | 223 |
| Michigan | 217 | 216–219 | 216 | 220 | 218 |
| Minnesota | 216 | 214–218 | 214 | 219 | 217 |
| Mississippi | 211 | 209–213 | 211 | 213 | 212 |
| Missouri | 215 | 213–217 | 214 | 217 | 215 |
| Montana | 209 | 208–212 | 208 | 213 | 209 |
| Nebraska | 212 | 210–214 | 212 | 214 | 211 |
| Nevada | 212 | 210–214 | 211 | 214 | 214 |
| New Hampshire | 216 | 214–218 | 215 | 219 | 217 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| New Mexico | 209 | 208–211 | 209 | 210 | 211 |
| New York | 220 | 219–222 | 220 | 223 | 220 |
| North Carolina | 218 | 216–219 | 217 | 220 | 218 |
| North Dakota | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 210 |
| Ohio | 217 | 215–218 | 216 | 219 | 217 |
| Oklahoma | 210 | 208–212 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
| Oregon | 217 | 215–219 | 216 | 219 | 216 |
| Pennsylvania | 219 | 217–220 | 219 | 221 | 219 |
| Rhode Island | 216 | 213–218 | 213 | 219 | 217 |
| South Carolina | 213 | 211–215 | 212 | 215 | 214 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 208–212 | 210 | 211 | 208 |
| Tennessee | 216 | 214–218 | 214 | 219 | 217 |
| Texas | 219 | 218–221 | 219 | 222 | 219 |
| Utah | 211 | 209–213 | 209 | 213 | 211 |
| Vermont | 213 | 210–216 | 212 | 216 | 215 |
| Virginia | 221 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| Washington | 221 | 220–223 | 221 | 224 | 222 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 209 |
| Wisconsin | 213 | 211–215 | 212 | 215 | 214 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 209 |
| U.S. Students Abroad | 223 | 222–224 | 223 | 225 | 223 |
| U.S. Territories | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 208 |
| Commended (national) | 209 | 207–211 | 208 | 210 | 208 |
Below are three of the most popular (and controversial) questions I get asked about the National Merit Scholarship Program. A couple of less controversial questions follow. Additional information can be found in our National Merit FAQ.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot-button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 16,500 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived just 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
NMSC feels that the allocation method is the best way of ensuring truly national representation. That’s important, because without national representation, the program would likely not exist. National Merit requires participation from corporations and universities across the country. It constantly works to foster investment. Looking at the sponsors from 35 years ago, for example, shows just how much things change. The pitch to sponsors would be more difficult if Semifinalists were clustered in a smaller footprint. That doesn’t make the frustration any less real for the students who miss out.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced? Why does it take so long?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2027. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
NMSC is an organization that values consistency — maybe sometimes to excess. The Semifinalist, Finalist, and Scholar cycle is little changed from what it was 60 years ago. Originally the NMSQT was in the spring of junior year, and email and the internet didn’t exist. Once the PSAT and NMSQT merged into a single exam, testing moved to the fall of junior year. The notification calendar never changed. During the winter and spring, NMSC is busy working with Finalist and Scholar selections. And counselors are busy getting seniors into college! In April and May, schools need to sign off on student eligibility. NMSC has always worked through schools for Semifinalist notifications, so September provides the next logical window. It’s slow and secretive, but it eventually works.
The schedule is hardest on students hoping to get one of the large scholarships offered by a limited number of universities. Key planning gets put on hold. I’d also like to see NMSC modernize its notification process. In the age of Bluebook, there is no excuse not to notify students directly and avoid the uncomfortable rollout of information. Colleges have long learned how to operate this way and build enthusiasm. The days of National Merit students being written up by the local newspaper are long gone, so why not let Instagram and TikTok take over?
Why is RW given twice the weight of Math?
There are many wrong answers to this question floating around the internet. It’s not because the PSAT had separate Reading and Writing sections during the SAT’s 2400 period. The weighting existed decades before that version of the exam. It’s not to favor one demographic over another. It dates back to the very creation of the test. In fact, the current method is more balanced than the original!
The National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test (just the SQT in 1956 and 1957) was originally a separate test offered in the spring of junior year. The test was developed from the Iowa Testing Programs that also gave birth to the ACT. In fact, the NMSQT looked a lot like the original ACT. It had sections for English, Mathematics, Social Studies (Reading), Natural Sciences (Reading), and Vocabulary. Each section was scored 1-36, and the Selection Index was the sum of the five section scores. So 80% of the original Selection Index came from sections testing verbal skills. In 1971, NMSC merged the NMSQT with the College Entrance Examination Board’s PSAT, written by ETS. The PSAT and SAT only had Verbal and Mathematics scores (20-80 on the PSAT and 200-800 on the SAT). In order to keep a similar balance to the original NMSQT, the Verbal score was doubled to form the Selection Index.
The decision remains controversial, but its roots are 70 years old. As mentioned previously, NMSC likes continuity.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are several flaws in using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
When my score report says “Eligible for National Merit,” does that mean I qualify?
Eligibility means entering the program; qualifying comes later. Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.3 million students from the 1.4 million PSAT takers enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
What are my chances for 217 in MI?
V,
Based on how things are shaping up, I like your chances!
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
How was the cutoff in Massachusetts confirmed at 222? Is it for sure yet? Very surprising it would jump by 2.
I have a 221 so anxiously waiting.
John,
It is confirmed. I wasn’t expecting a 2-point increase, but it’s not that surprising, in retrospect. In the four “down” years for the current PSAT where the Commended level has been below 210, MA’s cutoff has been at 222, 222, 221, and 220. Arguably, the 220 is more of an outlier than the 222. It may represent a bounceback in testing post pandemic in the Bay State. [In the three “up” years, the cutoffs were 222, 223, and 223.]
Hi. Any word on cutoff for Louisiana? Is 214 good enough? Thanks.
ERW,
Louisiana’s cutoff is at 214 this year. You made it!
Thank you so much! So grateful that you can put us at ease. Still waiting on school to provide any info. So you are a lifesaver providing this information. 214! Louisiana getting smarter! Yay!
Any news from Rhode Island?
Not yet, Chris.
Any information on RI? Thank you.
Not yet, Todd.
I’m a senior in Kansas and appear to have qualified with 212.
Ben,
Have you received a Semifinalist letter from your school? I think Kansas’s NMSF cutoff will be higher than 212.
would a 220 in PA be considered good for NMSF?
Yes, John. Congratulations!
What do you think my chances are of NMSF as a 218 in Minnesota?
Stephanie,
I’m reasonably certain that you will qualify.
Hello, any update on PA? Is 219 confirmed?
Kolton,
PA is confirmed at 219.
Any updates on Indiana cutoff?
Nolan,
Nothing on Indiana yet.
Hello, Mr Sawyer!
Is there any update on whether or not an index of 215 will qualify for semifinalist status in Ohio? Thanks!
Joanne,
Unfortunately the Ohio cutoff this year is 216.
Will 221 be enough to qualify as a semi-finalist in Illinois?
Kaden,
Yes, a 221 will qualify in Illinois. This year’s cutoff is 219. Congratulations!
Thank you so much for your time and dedication! Greatly appreciated you are with us to walk with this long waited and inexplicit journey.
when is the announcement by NMSC expected to come? Do they announce the names of semifinalists? or it is just the cutoffs.
sreyasee,
Sometimes neither. NMSC does most of its Semifinalist communication via schools. High schools started receiving notifications last week, and more will make their way to principals and counselors this week. Some schools, however, choose to wait until the Semifinalist press release deadline of 9/13 (and some wait even longer). NMSC doesn’t itself release the names of Semifinalists. Instead, it releases state finalists to relevant press outlets. [It has only occasionally released cutoffs, sometimes unintentionally.] The catch is that those press outlets are under no obligation to report the information! It all boils down to receiving a letter from the school. That’s also how Semifinalists receive their online portal information for their Finalist applications.
Hi, I am from CA. My score is 220. Do I have a chance to be a semifinalist? Thank You!
Meg,
Unfortunately, we now know that CA’s cutoff is 221 this year.
Hello Mr. Sawyer. Is it confirmed confirmed that the Georgia cutoff is 218 or lower?
Yes.
Mr Sawyer
Any chance for 208 in utah. how did you confirm 209, student report or reditt
There is still a chance, although I think it will end up as 209.
Hi,
Is it confirmed that Colorado is a 217 or below?
Aiden,
Yes. Unless I list a specific reservation, all of the information can be considered confirmed.
My son qualified as a semifinalist in NC as a homeschooler. We have not received a Semifinalist letter. Will letters to homeschoolers be mailed at a later date, or is it possible that my son wound up on the list for the school at which he took the test?
RXF,
Homeschooler letters are mailed at the same time. My experience is that actual delivery can be erratic. NMSC will be glad to help you after the press release date of 9/13. I would give them a call at that point if the letter has not arrived. It shouldn’t go to the school where your son tested unless he was enrolled there, but I don’t want to say that it’s impossible.
Do you think 217 in Michigan will qualify?
I think it is 50/50 between 217 and 218. Hopefully we learn more soon.
Hi Art, what is the Pennsylvania score cut-off? Is a 222 qualifying? Also, where can the information about the PA cut-off be found officially? Thank you!
The PA cutoff is 219 this year, so a 222 qualifies as NMSF. If NMSC chooses to publish the cutoffs, it will not be until at least 9/13.
Do you think 210 will be commended? We are in TX so don’t think he has a chance for semi-finalist.
Sharmila,
Yes, the Commended cutoff is set nationally, and it is 207 this year. Your son will be a Commended Student!
Thank you so much. Appreciate the quick reply. Do we need to wait for official notification before adding it to college applications or is there any place to confirm that and add it before we receive official notification?
Sharmilla,
Since word should be released tomorrow (13th), there is no harm in waiting until it’s official. You can call NMSC to confirm your daughter’s status. Depending on where you live, you may find your daughter’s name listed online tomorrow. But I find that fewer and fewer publications bother to report Semifinalists any more.
If I got a 219 in Illinois does that qualify or no
Yes, Arya, any score at 219 or better will qualify in Illinois.
Art, any update from MO? Thanks!
Not yet, Jun.
Just a quick thank you for all your effort compiling this information! It is greatly appreciated and, as you know, helps alleviate some of the stresses of the process for students and families.
Thank you for the kind words, Robert.
Is Louisiana confirmed to be exactly 214? Or is it at most 214?
Louisiana’s cutoff is 214.
Should my son feel confident with a 212 in South Carolina? It looks like you are confident in a 210 cutoff?
Yes, your son’s 212 will qualify him for NMSF. Congratulations! We know that South Carolina’s cutoff is no higher than 210.
Congratulations to all of the SFs nationally.
With such large differences in cut-offs by state (as much as 5%+ differences for SF status) , this seems patently unfair to students in the states with higher cut-offs (CT, NJ, DC, MA, etc.). A 221 in CT does not qualify, but a 209 in UT does? A 222 in NJ out of luck, but a 207in NM is a SF.
Do colleges take note of what states NMSF / NMF are from and discount the “lower threshold” states ?
This is a debate that has raged for about 60 years, and NMSC has stuck to its methodology.
I have not heard of colleges making those distinctions. After all, a college doesn’t know if the UT student qualified with a 227 or a 209.
Since Holistic review applies to the way most top university admissions take, the standard test is a small part of it
And besides The possibility of 221 in CT not qualifying to be NMSF has a higher chance of getting a higher SAT score than 209 in UT!
I think it evens out in terms of who has more advantage in the admission process.
Final Thoughts. College admissions are not a fair process anyway!
I certainly understand your frustration, and I would probably feel the same way if I were in a situation in which my son did not qualify despite others qualifying with lower scores in other states. But if the issue is fairness, I would urge you to keep in mind that for the most part, the higher cutoff states are ranked much higher not only in education but also in median income, healthcare, physical and mental health, economic mobility and resources, and a whole host of other quality-of-life measures. An example would be my home state of Alabama, ranked 44 by USNWR in education and 44 overall when considering a number of economic, healthcare, etc. measures compared to New Jersey, which is ranked 2nd in education and 19th overall. So while some might think the SI cutoff variation between states unfair, the argument can be made that when looking at this in the context of the above factors, it would not be fair to hold every state to the same standard. Another way of saying it is that the average kid in New Jersey is much better off educationally and in every quality of life measure (except maybe college football!) because they were born and raised in New Jersey compared to the average kid in Alabama, Mississippi, New Mexico, Oklahoma, etc.
Also, it is worth keeping in mind that when looked at overall, NMSF students from New Jersey or other high-cutoff states will have higher index scores than students from lower-cutoff states, but there are plenty of students in lower-cutoff states who earned the same or better selection index scores than students from the higher-cutoff states. For example, my son attends a small town, fringe rural public high school in Alabama, and he and a young lady from his school both have a 223 SI, so they would have qualified in any state. They also have a classmate who scored 217 or 218, so he would have qualified in quite a number of states as well. Unless AOs at these colleges have the SIs, it would be unfair for them to assume a student from a lower cutoff state had a lower score than a student from a higher cutoff state.
Hi Art,
Thanks for your tireless work at compiling all of this info again this year! Is it true that the NMSF sends a list of semifinalists to US colleges? If so, do you know when this happens? I once read that it’s earlier than the typical press release date. Thanks!
Lori,
While I know that NMSC does send Semifinalist lists to colleges, I don’t know what the timing is. Sometimes there is confusion, because students receive marketing literature that implies Semifinalist outreach well before the release date (as in months before). It’s likely that those outreaches are done based on cutting College Board data based on PSAT scores rather than on pre-knowledge of Semifinalists.
Thanks for the response. The e-mail from highly selective schools has ramped up like crazy this week, so that’s what prompted my question.
Lori, good question! This week, my son has also been bombarded with emails from highly selective and Ivy League schools. We haven’t seen this much of a flurry of emails in a long time.