April 8 Update:
The Commended cutoff — the minimum score to be considered for National Merit honors — for the class of 2025 is 208. This is the highest cutoff in 4 years. Compass’s analysis of the results from the first digital PSAT showed that the Commended cutoff would fall in the 208 – 210 range, so the 208 is in line with expectations.
Compass has incorporated the Commended cutoff into its projections for the Semifinalist cutoffs, which will begin filtering out around Labor Day.
Why haven’t I been told anything by my school?
The April announcement is to schools only and is not an official notification of a student’s status. Honored students are not notified until September.
Why aren’t Semifinalist cutoffs announced at the same time?
National Merit must receive student eligibility information from schools and then calculate the separate Semifinalist cutoffs for each state. Only the Commended cutoff is national. NMSC will mail high schools the names of Semifinalists at the end of August, and students will be notified by their schools in early to mid-September. Schools are not given the Commended Student letters until after Semifinalists are announced.
[The November 2023 post below has been updated with the Commended cutoff information.]
The 2023 digital PSAT/NMSQT for the class of 2025 represents the biggest change to the National Merit Scholarship Program since the PSAT was overhauled in 2015. Each year Compass looks at the results from the PSAT and tracks projected Selection Index cutoffs for Commended Students and for Semifinalist in each of the 50 states. [See National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for full details on stages and instructions. For information on the class of 2024 cutoffs, see this archive.]
Instead of having schools administer a paper test on fixed dates, College Board allowed the digital PSAT to be offered throughout October. College Board also introduced a new score return policy. Students taking the test on or before October 14th receive scores on November 6th. Students taking the PSAT after October 14th receive their scores on November 16th. Compass now has the data from both release windows. Approximately 50,000 students landed in the 1400-1520 score band from almost 1.5 million test takers. The initial half of scores already accounted for 30,000 of top band scores, so the later testers had a lower proportion of high scorers. This will come as a relief to students who were fearing an extremely large jump in Selection Index cutoffs.
This year is shaping up similar to the class of 2021 (the last pre-pandemic PSAT) and, reaching back farther, the class of 2017.
The number of top scorers is the most critical piece of information that we get this early in the process. There is a strong correlation between the 1400-1520 band of students and the Commended Student score.
[We now know the exact Commended cutoff is 208. -Ed.] The Commended Student cutoff is likely to rise to 209 (above the 207 from the last 3 years). Estimates can be imperfect, but we are confident that the Commended cutoff will fall within the 208 to 210 range. The higher Commended cutoff, in turn, correlates with higher Semifinalist cutoffs. Below are those estimates.
State | Class of 2025 (Most Likely) | Class of 2025 (Est Range) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Class of 2023 (Actual) | Class of 2022 (Actual) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alabama | 212 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 212 |
Alaska | 212 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 208 |
Arizona | 217 | 214 - 220 | 216 | 214 | 218 |
Arkansas | 212 | 209 - 215 | 210 | 210 | 211 |
California | 221 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 220 | 221 |
Colorado | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 217 | 217 |
Connecticut | 221 | 219 - 222 | 221 | 221 | 220 |
Delaware | 220 | 218 - 222 | 219 | 218 | 220 |
District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
Florida | 216 | 215 - 219 | 216 | 216 | 217 |
Georgia | 219 | 216 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 219 |
Hawaii | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 215 | 217 |
Idaho | 214 | 210 - 216 | 211 | 215 | 214 |
Illinois | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 218 |
Indiana | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 214 | 215 |
Iowa | 213 | 210 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 211 |
Kansas | 215 | 213 - 218 | 214 | 214 | 215 |
Kentucky | 214 | 210 - 217 | 211 | 212 | 212 |
Louisiana | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 213 |
Maine | 214 | 211 - 217 | 213 | 215 | 211 |
Maryland | 222 | 219 - 223 | 221 | 222 | 224 |
Massachusetts | 222 | 220 - 223 | 222 | 220 | 221 |
Michigan | 217 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 218 | 217 |
Minnesota | 218 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 218 |
Mississippi | 211 | 209 - 215 | 209 | 210 | 213 |
Missouri | 215 | 212 - 218 | 214 | 213 | 214 |
Montana | 210 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 207 | 208 |
Nebraska | 213 | 209 - 216 | 210 | 212 | 210 |
Nevada | 214 | 210 - 218 | 211 | 210 | 214 |
New Hampshire | 215 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 213 | 214 |
New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 222 |
New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 207 | 208 | 210 |
New York | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 219 | 220 |
North Carolina | 218 | 215 - 220 | 217 | 217 | 218 |
North Dakota | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 209 | 207 |
Ohio | 216 | 214 - 218 | 216 | 216 | 215 |
Oklahoma | 211 | 209 - 215 | 208 | 211 | 210 |
Oregon | 217 | 215 - 220 | 216 | 216 | 220 |
Pennsylvania | 219 | 217 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 218 |
Rhode Island | 216 | 213 - 219 | 215 | 216 | 213 |
South Carolina | 213 | 209 - 217 | 209 | 213 | 213 |
South Dakota | 211 | 208 - 214 | 209 | 212 | 210 |
Tennessee | 216 | 214 - 219 | 217 | 215 | 215 |
Texas | 220 | 218 - 221 | 219 | 219 | 220 |
Utah | 212 | 209 - 216 | 209 | 211 | 212 |
Vermont | 213 | 210 - 217 | 212 | 213 | 211 |
Virginia | 221 | 219 - 222 | 219 | 221 | 221 |
Washington | 220 | 218 - 222 | 220 | 220 | 220 |
West Virginia | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
Wisconsin | 214 | 212 - 217 | 213 | 213 | 214 |
Wyoming | 208 | 208 - 210 | 207 | 207 | 208 |
​U.S. Territories | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
​​Studying Abroad | 223 | 222 - 224 | 223 | 223 | 224 |
​​​Commended | 208 | 208 | 207 | 207 | 207 |
[See Compass’s National Merit Historical Cutoffs post for data going back to the class of 2008, which can be helpful in comparing this year to its analogues.]
The shift to a shorter, online and adaptive exam is unlikely to wreak the havoc we saw when the “revised PSAT” was introduced 8 years ago. That test overhauled content AND scoring. The digital SAT represents a content change — mainly on Reading and Writing — but keeps the 320-1520 score range intact. The Selection Index, too, remains consistent, with the Reading and Writing score having twice the weight of the Math score.
However, for any given state, a change in cutoff is more likely than not. Historically, Semifinalist cutoffs remain unchanged only about one-third of the time.
Even in years where the Commended cutoff remains static, we see half of state cutoffs go up or down. And it is extremely improbable that the Selection Index will be static. The chart below divides the 50 states into those that saw increases (blue), those that remained unchanged (gray), and those that saw declines (red). We are likely to see a year with far more blue than gray and more gray than red.
Uncertainty around exactly which state cutoffs will change and by how much is why we encourage students to compare their scores to the full estimated range in the table above rather than to a single value (our “Most Likely”). These estimates are built from prior performance data and from data on what scores are doing nationally. State and national numbers are not always in alignment. Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last 10 years, large states’ cutoffs have remained within 1 point of the prior cutoff 88% of the time. That figure drops to 73% for midsized states and 53% for small states. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states. Scores also tend to be more stable as they get higher. It is more unusual for a state to move from 221 to 222, for example, than for a state to move from 212 to 213.
What does a cutoff mean? Do I need to score at the cutoff or above it?
Students must have a Selection Index at or above the official cutoff in order to qualify for National Merit honors.
The top 52,000 to 54,000 students will receive some form of honors. National Merit Scholarship Corporation (NMSC) determines the cutoff number that comes closest to producing the target number of national honorees. This is the Commended cutoff.
How are Semifinalist cutoffs set?
Unlike the national Commended cutoff, Semifinalist cutoffs are calculated state by state. NMSC allocates the 16,000 semifinalists among states based on the annual number of high school graduates. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Why does the number of top scorers vary from year to year?
While there are changes in the number of students taking the PSAT/NMSQT, there can also be small flaws in test scaling that play a role. Prior to the digital PSAT, a single test form was seen by a large percentage of test takers. Something amiss with that single form could impact selection cutoffs across the country. The digital PSAT is constructed differently. Students receive unique form codes drawn from a large pool of problems. Scaled scores are generated based on the characteristics of those problems. In theory, this should make scores more stable. College Board’s early studies have found an extremely high correlation between the paper-and-pencil test and digital test. Still, even with its adaptive nature, the uncertainty remains as to whether the much shorter test can reliably score students at the 700-760 end of the scale. It appears that the class of 2025 is roughly average compared to the classes of 2017 to 2024 (the years after the change from the 2400 to 1520 scale).
Will test cancellations raise or lower qualifying scores for the National Merit Scholarship Program?
College Board’s online systems failed under load on one of the biggest testing days. There was also a bug that prevented iPads on the latest operating system from submitting exams. We do not know how many schools or students simply gave up and did not retest on rescheduled dates. If the cancellations increase the number of students pursuing alternate entry (see Compass’s explanation of National Merit alternate entry) then cutoffs could rise. Alternate entrants tend to have higher scores, because they can submit SAT scores through June 2024 to enter the competition. They must apply by April.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The Commended cutoff becomes unofficially known by the end of April. The lists of Semifinalists are not distributed to high schools until the end of August. NMSC sets a press embargo on Semifinalist announcement until mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as those dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether I will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the completely accurate record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 52,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
What are my chances for 217 in MI?
V,
Based on how things are shaping up, I like your chances!
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
How was the cutoff in Massachusetts confirmed at 222? Is it for sure yet? Very surprising it would jump by 2.
I have a 221 so anxiously waiting.
John,
It is confirmed. I wasn’t expecting a 2-point increase, but it’s not that surprising, in retrospect. In the four “down” years for the current PSAT where the Commended level has been below 210, MA’s cutoff has been at 222, 222, 221, and 220. Arguably, the 220 is more of an outlier than the 222. It may represent a bounceback in testing post pandemic in the Bay State. [In the three “up” years, the cutoffs were 222, 223, and 223.]
Hi. Any word on cutoff for Louisiana? Is 214 good enough? Thanks.
ERW,
Louisiana’s cutoff is at 214 this year. You made it!
Thank you so much! So grateful that you can put us at ease. Still waiting on school to provide any info. So you are a lifesaver providing this information. 214! Louisiana getting smarter! Yay!
Any news from Rhode Island?
Not yet, Chris.
Any information on RI? Thank you.
Not yet, Todd.
I’m a senior in Kansas and appear to have qualified with 212.
Ben,
Have you received a Semifinalist letter from your school? I think Kansas’s NMSF cutoff will be higher than 212.
would a 220 in PA be considered good for NMSF?
Yes, John. Congratulations!
What do you think my chances are of NMSF as a 218 in Minnesota?
Stephanie,
I’m reasonably certain that you will qualify.
Hello, any update on PA? Is 219 confirmed?
Kolton,
PA is confirmed at 219.
Any updates on Indiana cutoff?
Nolan,
Nothing on Indiana yet.
Hello, Mr Sawyer!
Is there any update on whether or not an index of 215 will qualify for semifinalist status in Ohio? Thanks!
Joanne,
Unfortunately the Ohio cutoff this year is 216.
Will 221 be enough to qualify as a semi-finalist in Illinois?
Kaden,
Yes, a 221 will qualify in Illinois. This year’s cutoff is 219. Congratulations!
Thank you so much for your time and dedication! Greatly appreciated you are with us to walk with this long waited and inexplicit journey.
when is the announcement by NMSC expected to come? Do they announce the names of semifinalists? or it is just the cutoffs.
sreyasee,
Sometimes neither. NMSC does most of its Semifinalist communication via schools. High schools started receiving notifications last week, and more will make their way to principals and counselors this week. Some schools, however, choose to wait until the Semifinalist press release deadline of 9/13 (and some wait even longer). NMSC doesn’t itself release the names of Semifinalists. Instead, it releases state finalists to relevant press outlets. [It has only occasionally released cutoffs, sometimes unintentionally.] The catch is that those press outlets are under no obligation to report the information! It all boils down to receiving a letter from the school. That’s also how Semifinalists receive their online portal information for their Finalist applications.
Hi, I am from CA. My score is 220. Do I have a chance to be a semifinalist? Thank You!
Meg,
Unfortunately, we now know that CA’s cutoff is 221 this year.
Hello Mr. Sawyer. Is it confirmed confirmed that the Georgia cutoff is 218 or lower?
Yes.
Mr Sawyer
Any chance for 208 in utah. how did you confirm 209, student report or reditt
There is still a chance, although I think it will end up as 209.
Hi,
Is it confirmed that Colorado is a 217 or below?
Aiden,
Yes. Unless I list a specific reservation, all of the information can be considered confirmed.
My son qualified as a semifinalist in NC as a homeschooler. We have not received a Semifinalist letter. Will letters to homeschoolers be mailed at a later date, or is it possible that my son wound up on the list for the school at which he took the test?
RXF,
Homeschooler letters are mailed at the same time. My experience is that actual delivery can be erratic. NMSC will be glad to help you after the press release date of 9/13. I would give them a call at that point if the letter has not arrived. It shouldn’t go to the school where your son tested unless he was enrolled there, but I don’t want to say that it’s impossible.
Do you think 217 in Michigan will qualify?
I think it is 50/50 between 217 and 218. Hopefully we learn more soon.
Hi Art, what is the Pennsylvania score cut-off? Is a 222 qualifying? Also, where can the information about the PA cut-off be found officially? Thank you!
The PA cutoff is 219 this year, so a 222 qualifies as NMSF. If NMSC chooses to publish the cutoffs, it will not be until at least 9/13.
Do you think 210 will be commended? We are in TX so don’t think he has a chance for semi-finalist.
Sharmila,
Yes, the Commended cutoff is set nationally, and it is 207 this year. Your son will be a Commended Student!
Thank you so much. Appreciate the quick reply. Do we need to wait for official notification before adding it to college applications or is there any place to confirm that and add it before we receive official notification?
Sharmilla,
Since word should be released tomorrow (13th), there is no harm in waiting until it’s official. You can call NMSC to confirm your daughter’s status. Depending on where you live, you may find your daughter’s name listed online tomorrow. But I find that fewer and fewer publications bother to report Semifinalists any more.
If I got a 219 in Illinois does that qualify or no
Yes, Arya, any score at 219 or better will qualify in Illinois.
Art, any update from MO? Thanks!
Not yet, Jun.
Just a quick thank you for all your effort compiling this information! It is greatly appreciated and, as you know, helps alleviate some of the stresses of the process for students and families.
Thank you for the kind words, Robert.
Is Louisiana confirmed to be exactly 214? Or is it at most 214?
Louisiana’s cutoff is 214.
Should my son feel confident with a 212 in South Carolina? It looks like you are confident in a 210 cutoff?
Yes, your son’s 212 will qualify him for NMSF. Congratulations! We know that South Carolina’s cutoff is no higher than 210.
Congratulations to all of the SFs nationally.
With such large differences in cut-offs by state (as much as 5%+ differences for SF status) , this seems patently unfair to students in the states with higher cut-offs (CT, NJ, DC, MA, etc.). A 221 in CT does not qualify, but a 209 in UT does? A 222 in NJ out of luck, but a 207in NM is a SF.
Do colleges take note of what states NMSF / NMF are from and discount the “lower threshold” states ?
This is a debate that has raged for about 60 years, and NMSC has stuck to its methodology.
I have not heard of colleges making those distinctions. After all, a college doesn’t know if the UT student qualified with a 227 or a 209.
Since Holistic review applies to the way most top university admissions take, the standard test is a small part of it
And besides The possibility of 221 in CT not qualifying to be NMSF has a higher chance of getting a higher SAT score than 209 in UT!
I think it evens out in terms of who has more advantage in the admission process.
Final Thoughts. College admissions are not a fair process anyway!
I certainly understand your frustration, and I would probably feel the same way if I were in a situation in which my son did not qualify despite others qualifying with lower scores in other states. But if the issue is fairness, I would urge you to keep in mind that for the most part, the higher cutoff states are ranked much higher not only in education but also in median income, healthcare, physical and mental health, economic mobility and resources, and a whole host of other quality-of-life measures. An example would be my home state of Alabama, ranked 44 by USNWR in education and 44 overall when considering a number of economic, healthcare, etc. measures compared to New Jersey, which is ranked 2nd in education and 19th overall. So while some might think the SI cutoff variation between states unfair, the argument can be made that when looking at this in the context of the above factors, it would not be fair to hold every state to the same standard. Another way of saying it is that the average kid in New Jersey is much better off educationally and in every quality of life measure (except maybe college football!) because they were born and raised in New Jersey compared to the average kid in Alabama, Mississippi, New Mexico, Oklahoma, etc.
Also, it is worth keeping in mind that when looked at overall, NMSF students from New Jersey or other high-cutoff states will have higher index scores than students from lower-cutoff states, but there are plenty of students in lower-cutoff states who earned the same or better selection index scores than students from the higher-cutoff states. For example, my son attends a small town, fringe rural public high school in Alabama, and he and a young lady from his school both have a 223 SI, so they would have qualified in any state. They also have a classmate who scored 217 or 218, so he would have qualified in quite a number of states as well. Unless AOs at these colleges have the SIs, it would be unfair for them to assume a student from a lower cutoff state had a lower score than a student from a higher cutoff state.
Hi Art,
Thanks for your tireless work at compiling all of this info again this year! Is it true that the NMSF sends a list of semifinalists to US colleges? If so, do you know when this happens? I once read that it’s earlier than the typical press release date. Thanks!
Lori,
While I know that NMSC does send Semifinalist lists to colleges, I don’t know what the timing is. Sometimes there is confusion, because students receive marketing literature that implies Semifinalist outreach well before the release date (as in months before). It’s likely that those outreaches are done based on cutting College Board data based on PSAT scores rather than on pre-knowledge of Semifinalists.
Thanks for the response. The e-mail from highly selective schools has ramped up like crazy this week, so that’s what prompted my question.
Lori, good question! This week, my son has also been bombarded with emails from highly selective and Ivy League schools. We haven’t seen this much of a flurry of emails in a long time.