Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
What are my chances for 217 in MI?
V,
Based on how things are shaping up, I like your chances!
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
How was the cutoff in Massachusetts confirmed at 222? Is it for sure yet? Very surprising it would jump by 2.
I have a 221 so anxiously waiting.
John,
It is confirmed. I wasn’t expecting a 2-point increase, but it’s not that surprising, in retrospect. In the four “down” years for the current PSAT where the Commended level has been below 210, MA’s cutoff has been at 222, 222, 221, and 220. Arguably, the 220 is more of an outlier than the 222. It may represent a bounceback in testing post pandemic in the Bay State. [In the three “up” years, the cutoffs were 222, 223, and 223.]
Hi. Any word on cutoff for Louisiana? Is 214 good enough? Thanks.
ERW,
Louisiana’s cutoff is at 214 this year. You made it!
Thank you so much! So grateful that you can put us at ease. Still waiting on school to provide any info. So you are a lifesaver providing this information. 214! Louisiana getting smarter! Yay!
Any news from Rhode Island?
Not yet, Chris.
Any information on RI? Thank you.
Not yet, Todd.
I’m a senior in Kansas and appear to have qualified with 212.
Ben,
Have you received a Semifinalist letter from your school? I think Kansas’s NMSF cutoff will be higher than 212.
would a 220 in PA be considered good for NMSF?
Yes, John. Congratulations!
What do you think my chances are of NMSF as a 218 in Minnesota?
Stephanie,
I’m reasonably certain that you will qualify.
Hello, any update on PA? Is 219 confirmed?
Kolton,
PA is confirmed at 219.
Any updates on Indiana cutoff?
Nolan,
Nothing on Indiana yet.
Hello, Mr Sawyer!
Is there any update on whether or not an index of 215 will qualify for semifinalist status in Ohio? Thanks!
Joanne,
Unfortunately the Ohio cutoff this year is 216.
Will 221 be enough to qualify as a semi-finalist in Illinois?
Kaden,
Yes, a 221 will qualify in Illinois. This year’s cutoff is 219. Congratulations!
Thank you so much for your time and dedication! Greatly appreciated you are with us to walk with this long waited and inexplicit journey.
when is the announcement by NMSC expected to come? Do they announce the names of semifinalists? or it is just the cutoffs.
sreyasee,
Sometimes neither. NMSC does most of its Semifinalist communication via schools. High schools started receiving notifications last week, and more will make their way to principals and counselors this week. Some schools, however, choose to wait until the Semifinalist press release deadline of 9/13 (and some wait even longer). NMSC doesn’t itself release the names of Semifinalists. Instead, it releases state finalists to relevant press outlets. [It has only occasionally released cutoffs, sometimes unintentionally.] The catch is that those press outlets are under no obligation to report the information! It all boils down to receiving a letter from the school. That’s also how Semifinalists receive their online portal information for their Finalist applications.
Hi, I am from CA. My score is 220. Do I have a chance to be a semifinalist? Thank You!
Meg,
Unfortunately, we now know that CA’s cutoff is 221 this year.
Hello Mr. Sawyer. Is it confirmed confirmed that the Georgia cutoff is 218 or lower?
Yes.
Mr Sawyer
Any chance for 208 in utah. how did you confirm 209, student report or reditt
There is still a chance, although I think it will end up as 209.
Hi,
Is it confirmed that Colorado is a 217 or below?
Aiden,
Yes. Unless I list a specific reservation, all of the information can be considered confirmed.
My son qualified as a semifinalist in NC as a homeschooler. We have not received a Semifinalist letter. Will letters to homeschoolers be mailed at a later date, or is it possible that my son wound up on the list for the school at which he took the test?
RXF,
Homeschooler letters are mailed at the same time. My experience is that actual delivery can be erratic. NMSC will be glad to help you after the press release date of 9/13. I would give them a call at that point if the letter has not arrived. It shouldn’t go to the school where your son tested unless he was enrolled there, but I don’t want to say that it’s impossible.
Do you think 217 in Michigan will qualify?
I think it is 50/50 between 217 and 218. Hopefully we learn more soon.
Hi Art, what is the Pennsylvania score cut-off? Is a 222 qualifying? Also, where can the information about the PA cut-off be found officially? Thank you!
The PA cutoff is 219 this year, so a 222 qualifies as NMSF. If NMSC chooses to publish the cutoffs, it will not be until at least 9/13.
Do you think 210 will be commended? We are in TX so don’t think he has a chance for semi-finalist.
Sharmila,
Yes, the Commended cutoff is set nationally, and it is 207 this year. Your son will be a Commended Student!
Thank you so much. Appreciate the quick reply. Do we need to wait for official notification before adding it to college applications or is there any place to confirm that and add it before we receive official notification?
Sharmilla,
Since word should be released tomorrow (13th), there is no harm in waiting until it’s official. You can call NMSC to confirm your daughter’s status. Depending on where you live, you may find your daughter’s name listed online tomorrow. But I find that fewer and fewer publications bother to report Semifinalists any more.
If I got a 219 in Illinois does that qualify or no
Yes, Arya, any score at 219 or better will qualify in Illinois.
Art, any update from MO? Thanks!
Not yet, Jun.
Just a quick thank you for all your effort compiling this information! It is greatly appreciated and, as you know, helps alleviate some of the stresses of the process for students and families.
Thank you for the kind words, Robert.
Is Louisiana confirmed to be exactly 214? Or is it at most 214?
Louisiana’s cutoff is 214.
Should my son feel confident with a 212 in South Carolina? It looks like you are confident in a 210 cutoff?
Yes, your son’s 212 will qualify him for NMSF. Congratulations! We know that South Carolina’s cutoff is no higher than 210.
Congratulations to all of the SFs nationally.
With such large differences in cut-offs by state (as much as 5%+ differences for SF status) , this seems patently unfair to students in the states with higher cut-offs (CT, NJ, DC, MA, etc.). A 221 in CT does not qualify, but a 209 in UT does? A 222 in NJ out of luck, but a 207in NM is a SF.
Do colleges take note of what states NMSF / NMF are from and discount the “lower threshold” states ?
This is a debate that has raged for about 60 years, and NMSC has stuck to its methodology.
I have not heard of colleges making those distinctions. After all, a college doesn’t know if the UT student qualified with a 227 or a 209.
Since Holistic review applies to the way most top university admissions take, the standard test is a small part of it
And besides The possibility of 221 in CT not qualifying to be NMSF has a higher chance of getting a higher SAT score than 209 in UT!
I think it evens out in terms of who has more advantage in the admission process.
Final Thoughts. College admissions are not a fair process anyway!
I certainly understand your frustration, and I would probably feel the same way if I were in a situation in which my son did not qualify despite others qualifying with lower scores in other states. But if the issue is fairness, I would urge you to keep in mind that for the most part, the higher cutoff states are ranked much higher not only in education but also in median income, healthcare, physical and mental health, economic mobility and resources, and a whole host of other quality-of-life measures. An example would be my home state of Alabama, ranked 44 by USNWR in education and 44 overall when considering a number of economic, healthcare, etc. measures compared to New Jersey, which is ranked 2nd in education and 19th overall. So while some might think the SI cutoff variation between states unfair, the argument can be made that when looking at this in the context of the above factors, it would not be fair to hold every state to the same standard. Another way of saying it is that the average kid in New Jersey is much better off educationally and in every quality of life measure (except maybe college football!) because they were born and raised in New Jersey compared to the average kid in Alabama, Mississippi, New Mexico, Oklahoma, etc.
Also, it is worth keeping in mind that when looked at overall, NMSF students from New Jersey or other high-cutoff states will have higher index scores than students from lower-cutoff states, but there are plenty of students in lower-cutoff states who earned the same or better selection index scores than students from the higher-cutoff states. For example, my son attends a small town, fringe rural public high school in Alabama, and he and a young lady from his school both have a 223 SI, so they would have qualified in any state. They also have a classmate who scored 217 or 218, so he would have qualified in quite a number of states as well. Unless AOs at these colleges have the SIs, it would be unfair for them to assume a student from a lower cutoff state had a lower score than a student from a higher cutoff state.
Hi Art,
Thanks for your tireless work at compiling all of this info again this year! Is it true that the NMSF sends a list of semifinalists to US colleges? If so, do you know when this happens? I once read that it’s earlier than the typical press release date. Thanks!
Lori,
While I know that NMSC does send Semifinalist lists to colleges, I don’t know what the timing is. Sometimes there is confusion, because students receive marketing literature that implies Semifinalist outreach well before the release date (as in months before). It’s likely that those outreaches are done based on cutting College Board data based on PSAT scores rather than on pre-knowledge of Semifinalists.
Thanks for the response. The e-mail from highly selective schools has ramped up like crazy this week, so that’s what prompted my question.
Lori, good question! This week, my son has also been bombarded with emails from highly selective and Ivy League schools. We haven’t seen this much of a flurry of emails in a long time.