Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Is nj confirmed at 223?
Yes.
Hello! I’m from MO and scored a 212. I have heard of others qualifying with a 213. If this is the case, should I get my hopes up or is it likely that I missed the cutoff? Thanks!
Miles,
I have not heard about the 213 qualifiers. I don’t yet have confirming information on MO.
I’m in the same boat as you. Let me know when you get your answer!
I am in the same situation as you. Let me know when you get your answer!
Any news on Missouri. Child with 213 waiting impatiently.
Still awaiting news on Missouri, Pamela.
Any indication on the NV cutoff ?
Not as of yet, Gina.
I believe it is 211.
That’s what I am hearing, too.
Hello, do you think a 217 will qualify for Indiana this year? Thank you!
Yes, I think it will. It’s unlikely that we’ll see a 3-point increase in any state cutoff.
Good evening, do you have information on the DC/Students Abroad cut off? I saw you put MD at 221 in the comments. Is there a reason this information has not been included in the blog post or listed in the BREAKING list?
DC/Abroad is 223. NJ’s cutoff is the highest this year. The missing Maryland was just an oversight. Updated.
Hi Art, first thanks for your work. My son is 224 in NJ so should we celebrate? Thanks!!
Poyee,
A 224 should always be celebrated! But, yes, your son will be a Semifinalist. Congratulations!
Hi, Art:
We got our answer (Arizona) days ago. I just wanted to say thank you for your diligent tracking of all this data!
Thank you, Anne!
How did you confirm PA? Did you get a student at 218?
John,
PA’s cutoff is confirmed at 219.
Hi Art,
My daughter is going to a boarding school in CT and she got 222. Is she qualified for NMSF?
Han,
Boarding school cutoffs are set regionally based on the highest state cutoff within the region. I believe that CT falls in a region that includes New England and Mid-Atlantic. If that’s correct, then the cutoff is based on New Jersey at 223. I would recommend that your daughter check with her school.
Hi Art,
My child is in boarding school in North Carolina. Do you know what the cut off is? Thank you!
SK,
Boarding school cutoffs are determined regionally. The highest state cutoff within a region is the boarding school cutoff for that region. I believe that North Carolina is in a grouping of South Atlantic and Central states, so it dodges New Jersey’s 223. I don’t know the exact states in that region, but my guess is that Maryland is grouped with NC and would set the region’s cutoff at 221.
Hello-
Can you confirm Wisconsin’s cutoff ? You responded to some posts earlier but it is not listed in the blog post. Thanks !
Wisconsin stayed the same at 213.
I haven’t seen much info from Kansas yet in these comments, so I thought I’d add a data point. We received the notification letter this evening that our homeschooled senior is a Semifinalist with a 219 SI. Best wishes to all the Semifinalist qualifiers, the commended scholars, and ALL the seniors!
Congratulations, AK! Thank you for passing this along.
I am an NC student who got 217 as my SI and qualified.
Congratulations! Based on additional information, I can confirm that 217 is NC’s cutoff.
Hi Art!
My student got an official acceptance through his school with a 217 in Michigan!
Congratulations! Thank you.
Hello! I was notified today that I qualified with a 214 in Missouri 🙂
Great news, J! Congratulations, and thank you for sharing. It looks like 214 is Missouri’s cutoff this year.
thanks for the information – devastated with my son’s 213 but at least we know
I hope your son — if not right away — can appreciate his achievement.
what means looks like, is 214 confirmed ?
Yes, confirmed.
Michigan here – our son qualified with 217. Not sure what the cutoff is.
Congratulations to your son, Kim. Thanks for sharing the news. I can confirm that, in fact, Michigan fell at exactly 217 this year. Updating the site shortly.
Just a follow-up to my question about homeschool notification: We are in NC and we only just received our notification letter from NMSC in the mail today.
Thanks, RXF. That checks out with what I have heard from high schools over the years. Curious, did they send it normal first-class?
Yes, it was sent pre-sorted First Class.
Thank you!
Hey Art!
Is the Oregon cutoff really confirmed to be 216? My son had completely lost hope with and 217 and this news would make him so happy!
Shri,
Yes, Oregon really is 216. Hope restored. Congratulations to your son!
Hey Art,
I live in a U.S. territory called Guam. I have a 219 index, and my Principal has shown me a letter from NMS last May asking her to confirm my information. Are these good signs of making a semifinalist? Also, when will I be able to know via mail or email?
Thank you!
Joseph,
The May heads-up meant that you were on a list of students eligible for recognition as either Commended or Semifinalist. But the 219 absolutely means that you will be a Semifinalist. Congratulations! While I haven’t listed it, the U.S. Territories cutoff has always come in at the national Commended number. In other words, 207 or higher will qualify in Guam. You will be notified by your school. That information (mailed to the school) may arrive later in Guam than in say New York, but I’m sure that it will eventually show up. You may want to check with your principal next week (some schools wait until the 13th, which is the press release date for NMSC).
Thank you! That’s great to hear.
Is California confirmed at 221?
Yes.
Is CA confirmed as 221?
Yes.
But it’s confusing because your article said a student “qualified” at 221, which is not the same as confirmed. What exactly is the difference? The article only says CA scores have been confirmed with no actual cutoff listed. So where can we find the official cutoff scores for CA?
Erica,
I don’t always list all students or sources in the comments. When I note a cutoff as confirmed or =, it means that I am convinced of the accuracy of the cutoff. I hesitate to call them official, because I am not associated with NMSC and don’t want to imply any association. One of the reasons I provide this information is that NMSC — in most years — chooses not to publicize cutoff information. If it releases cutoffs this year, it would not be until at least the press release date of September 13th. California’s cutoff is 221 this year.
Art, are there any Kansas updates? Thanks.
Yes, in fact. Kansas’ cutoff is 214.
Do you know what the cutoff is for private boarding schools in MA? I think boarding schools have a different cutoff than the state cutoffs. And if the cutoff is 222, does that mean you need greater than 222, or will 222 make the list as a semifinalist?
Nancy,
Boarding schools do have different cutoffs. They inherit the highest state cutoff within their region. I am not 100% certain about how NMSC currently defines MA’s region. I believe it combines New England and the Mid-Atlantic states. That would mean the NJ cutoff of 223 applies.
A 222 cutoff means that students AT or above 222 qualify.
I can now confirm that Boarding schools in MA used NJ (223) as the max state. My daughter who is a day student at a MA boarding school got a 222 and she didn’t make the cutoff by one point. 😞
Nancy,
I’m sorry to hear that. Your daughter’s score is impressive. The boarding school model for NM feels like an anachronism.
Thank you for sharing the information.
Is the cutoff for Maryland truly 221. My daughter got a 220. Is it possible for them to take into account other factors too or do they simply not even consider anyone whose index is below 221? Is there a chance for them to accept her, or not at all?
Jessica,
I am sorry, but the initial stage of the National Merit process is based exclusively on a student’s Selection Index. Your daughter’s score is impressive. She will be named a Commended Student rather than a Semifinalist.
Hi Art,
I scored a 220 in California. A skill issue on my part. Could have gotten a 221 or even a 224 if I locked in more.
There’s just not much room for error with such a high cutoff. I’d say your skills are pretty good ;). Best of luck with your college apps!
I don’t see Idaho’s numbers anywhere? Same as previous years?
bk,
Idaho was actually a big mover. The cutoff fell 4 points to 211.