Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Awesome work compiling all the cutoffs!
Out of curiosity, do you have the list that shows how many commended are in each state and how many unique schools are represented in each state?
Thank you, George.
I do not.
Hello Mr. Sawyer!
This information may not help you, but I wanted to let you know that I have received an NMSC letter from my school confirming that I am a Semifinalist as an alternate entry applicant with a Selection Index score of 218 in Ohio! Thank you so much for helping me and a lot of other families by making this amazing website!
Thank you for sharing and for the kind words. Congratulations!
Hello! I took the PSAT my junior year when I was in South Carolina. I got a 215. After my junior year, I moved down to Florida for my senior year that’s going on right now, and will graduate from a Florida high school. Which state’s cutoff should I look at?
Sarvesh,
National Merit considers students based on the school they attended when they took the PSAT. You are a South Carolina student for National Merit. Congratulations!
Thank you for collecting this info. Curious though, my son attends a public school in MA and scored a 227 on last years PSAT. Per is eligibility info he does meet entry requirements. He has not yet heard whether or not he is a semifinalist. Is there a situation in which he would not be make it? Getting very nervous since he has not been notified yet.
Christina,
Many schools prefer to wait until the 13th, which is the press release date for National Merit announcements. There is no reason to be nervous. If you haven’t heard from the school after the 13th, check in with them. If you aren’t able to get an answer from the school after a day or two, you can call NMSC directly to confirm that your son is a Semifinalist. Congratulations, btw!
There are lightning-strike rare instances of where, say, a student’s class year is wrong. On the National Merit tab of your son’s PSAT report from College Board, I believe there is an indication of whether CB has him as having met eligibility requirements. That will not tell him whether or not he is a Semifinalist — College Board is not involved in that decision — but it will confirm that the correct information was passed along to NMSC. Even those sorts of glitches can be cleared up.
Thank you so much for your work! I must admit, I was refreshing non-stop for confirmation of our state’s cutoff last week. I was able to breath a sigh of relief that my son did make NMSF. He is now working on the application for NMF and I would like your guidance on listing the first choice college. For our family, chasing merit money is key. However, my son’s first choice college is not a sponsor of a NM scholarship. Should he even list that college as his first choice or would it be smarter to list one of the colleges that do sponsor a NM scholarship that he does have interest in?
Congratulations to your son!
You will want to list a sponsoring school. That’s a particularly easy answer in your son’s case, since merit aid is important. You’ll want to keep reevaluating that first choice as your son goes through the admission process. The matching process doesn’t begin until March, so he’ll know a lot more about his prospects by then. There are some wonderful schools that provide significant financial aid for National Merit Finalists. And don’t be shy. See if a school has a liaison that deals with National Merit students. Make sure that you ask about any school-specific deadlines.
Feel free to ignore my question, but I’ll put it in a simple yes/no form. Is the essay on your son’s NMF app using the same prompt as in past years: “To help the reviewers get to know you, describe an experience you have had, a person who has influenced you, or an obstacle you have overcome. Explain why this is meaningful to you. Use your own words and limit your response to the space provided.” Thanks!
Thank you for your thorough reply! The prompt is the same.
Thank you, Chris! There are always some students who are late receiving notifications, so it’s nice to be able to confirm the prompt for them.
When do you think is a reasonable time to follow up with the school to ask about the materials. My son’s index met the cut off for our state but have heard nothing from their school
RC,
Many schools prefer to wait until the press release date on the 13th, so your situation is not unusual. No need for concern. If your son doesn’t hear anything on the 13th, I would follow up with the school.
Do the alternative entrants still have to send another SAT or ACT score as confirmatory?
Harry,
I have heard from Alternate Entrants who have talked with NMSC about this in the past that a second SAT is not required. Because the topic is not covered in any of their released publications, I would advise contacting NMSC directly.
thank you!
Hi Art!
Daughter is Oklahoma. Doesn’t want to take SAT.
ACT (33) conversion is 220. Lots of community service and activities. Will that be a safe score to submit for Finalist consideration? Will have great essay and recs from school.
Also, would appreciate your advisement on what to put for school of choice since none of her top 4 are NM Sponsors.
Thanks for your continued help!
Kerry,
Your daughter does not need to take the SAT. Her 220 is well above what is needed as a confirming score (generally set at the Commended level of 207). And having a higher score does not play a factor in Finalist selection.
Putting a non-sponsoring school does little (nothing?) for a student. If she puts one of her top 4 schools as her first choice, she just has to accept that the only scholarship opportunities are direct from National Merit or a corporate sponsor. Only about a quarter of Finalists receive such an award. As I’ve recommended to other families, don’t view what she puts now as her final answer. Set a reminder for February and see where her admission process stands. If she knows that she will be going to a non-sponsor, then she should list the non-sponsor at that time. It’s better for her to compete for a national award than to get matched with a school she is not considering.
Thank you Art! Truly appreciate all your help over the last year!
Hi Art,
I qualified as a semifinalist in CA, thanks for compiling this information for us! I was looking through the finalist application and saw on the NMSC website that a whopping 95% of semifinalists become finalists. Do you think the 5% who did not become finalists simply didn’t submit an application? And how highly should I prioritize this application, considering I also have college applications and many other commitments at the moment?
Lisa,
Congratulations! I’ve never found any material indicating the percent that different factors play in disqualifying Semifinalists from continuing. I suspect that some of them do not complete the application. As you point out, it can serve as a distraction. And schools have to write letters of recommendation and send the completed application, and there are some that don’t give National Merit a high priority.
But my guess is that the top 2 reasons are the academic expectations and the need for a confirming score. “Have a record of consistently very high academic performance in all of grades 9 through 12 and in any college course work taken.” That’s a high standard — “consistently,” “very,” “all,” “any.” To my knowledge, NMSC has never defined those standards publicly. So students do not have a way of knowing if a GPA is sufficient or if a bad grade in 10th grade is going to disqualify them. The good news is that there is nothing you can do about any of that other than to keep getting good grades your senior year (and you are already going to do that for colleges). So my advice is to stay optimistic. The confirming score likely trips up some students, but because it is a national score based on the Commended cutoff, it’s not much of a threat to the typical CA qualifier. Best of luck!
Deciding to focus on your college applications is a perfectly reasonable response with one caveat. If the potential financial aid benefits are important, try to find the time. And it really shouldn’t take much time. The essay is so general that it shouldn’t be hard to rework one of your college app essays. The rest of the application won’t take long at all if you have things organized — which you also need to do for your college apps.
I got a 219 and I live in Texas. Does this mean I am a Semifinalist?
John,
A junior in Texas with a 219 will be a Semifinalist. Congratulations. If you still haven’t heard from your school, you can contact NMSC directly [(847) 866-5100] for confirmation. You’ll still need to get the letter from your school, as that has your login information for the application portal for Finalist.
Hi Art,
We live in Europe and my son is a US citizen who was born and raised overseas. He attends a semi-‘international’ high school, and will be able to take the PSATs at another intl school (not his own school- which doesn’t offer it). Since he doesn’t really have a US state affiliation (I am registered to vote in CA, where I last lived in the US), does that mean he won’t be eligible for the NMS at all?
Carleen,
Your son seems to meet the eligibility requirements — assuming he is a junior. As long as he lists himself as a junior and as a U.S. citizen, then he is eligible to participate as a student outside of the U.S. On his online PSAT report, there should be a confirmation on the tab for National Merit (as I haven’t taken the PSAT in a looong time, I may have the naming wrong). In April, high schools receive lists of students eligible to continue in the NMSP process — meaning they hit the Commended level or above. Schools aren’t supposed to release that information, but they are supposed to confirm it with NMSC. That’s the only part of the process that makes me nervous, as I don’t know how familiar your son’s school is with National Merit. If there have been other Commended Students or Semifinalists from the school, then you know things must be working.
Hi Art,
Firstly, Thank you so much for this blog.
My son made the cut off for NY with 220.
For the confirming score, NMSC requests SAT or ACT. He has 1550 (750E and 800M) in SAT and 36 in ACT (35R 35W 36M 36S). Based on concordance tables, SI for ACT and SAT would be the same (I.e. 1550). Seems like NMSC is ignoring the science section of the ACT when doing conversions. Does it matter which one we submit ? I think SAT is cheaper to submit than ACT.
Thanks
Andy
Congratulations to your son, Andy.
He is so far over (!) the necessary confirming score (which should be at 207 this year) that you might as well just flip a coin. A higher score does not boost a student’s chances at the Finalist or Scholar stages. Yes, SAT reports are a few dollars cheaper.
Hi Art:
What is the meaning of the three digit code (just next to the names) in the semifinalist? For example, 999, 000, 520, 743, 200, so on and so forth.
It’s the code for intended major a student listed when registering for the PSAT.
https://nationalmerit.imodules.com/s/1758/images/gid2/editor_documents/collegemajorcareercodes.pdf
What does 000 means
meenakshi,
The 3-digit number represents the college major or career code students chose during PSAT registration. 000 means that no code was chosen or the student entered National Merit via Alternate Entry.
Hi Art, I have received the letter from my school and will start my application process soon. Thank you for all the great work you have done for the students! You’ve made the process less stressful. I have one question. I want to include the NM semifinalist status in my college application but also indicate that I am likely to be a finalist. In your opinion, what is the appropriate way to list it? Can I say something like “National Merit Scholarship Semi-finalist, finalist status anticipated (or expected) in Feb. 2024?” I don’t want to sound like I assume too much but also want the colleges know that I meet all the finalist eligibility requirements (GPA, confirming score, etc.). Thank you!
Congratulations, Luke!
I would recommend against listing yourself as anything beyond a Semifinalist. Colleges know how the timeline works and that Finalists won’t be named until 2024. They also know all of the things you mentioned and with a lot more detail. Colleges have all of your grades. They have recommendation letters. They have your activities. They have your essays. They have test scores (if you choose to send them). Let them make their own assumptions about where you will end up in the NM process. Best of luck!
Thank you so much, Art! I will definitely follow your advice. Have a wonderful weekend.
Art, do you happen to know the reason why Merit will not post the complete list of semifinalists on their website?
Harry,
I’m a big supporter of National Merit and NM students, but I would be hard-pressed to name a process change in the last 40 years. They have always chosen to send physical packets to schools and to have Semifinalist names distributed only by schools or the local press. That made a bit more sense when the local paper might run an item about Semifinalists. Or when the only dependable way to get information to 16,000 PSAT takers was via their schools. Now a community is lucky if it still has a local paper. And every student has an email address. I hope National Merit eventually adopts an online process just like every college has adopted. Until then, we just have to accept that they don’t intend to fix what they don’t consider broken. I will say that putting 16,000 student names on their website might create some privacy issues, but I’m reaching.
Hello, we are US citizens living abroad. My daughter just missed the cutoff for international. Her school confirmed this but she does make the commended cutoff. Her school has no information about commended students. How can my daughter confirm this? Do commended letters go out with semifinalist letters?
Lynn,
NMSC does not send Commended letters to schools until the Semifinalist press release date (the 12th). So your daughter’s school may not receive them for a couple of more weeks. Her score means that she will certainly be a Commended Student!
My daughter was named a semifinalist. Her high school does not have many semifinalists, and the school is not sure how to do their part. Should the principal have received her own log-in information?
D,
I’m not sure on that one. Has your daughter completed her portion? It may give instructions for next steps. You best bet is to call NMSC: (847) 866-5161. Congratulations and good luck!
Art my daughter who is a NMSQT semifinalist in Utah has score 1490 in SAT and has GPA of 4,2 what are her chances of becoming finalist
Mo,
It’s difficult to give chances on Finalist qualification because NMSC does not publish specific standards for academic achievement. Her SAT score is high enough to check that box. Her GPA is likely strong enough. As long as she gets a recommendation from her school, she should be in good shape. 15,000 of the 16,000 Semifinalists end up as Finalists.
Do you know how the scoring will work this year? Do you think that they will adjust the requirements to make it more fair? I just don’t understand how they can score it fairly when everyone took a different test, some harder than others because of the “harder” modules after taking the first one.
The digital PSAT (and SAT) use a type of scoring known as Item Response Theory. One of the big advantages is that tests can be scaled — essentially on the fly — based on characteristics of the individual items. The math behind IRT is complex, but it has been in use for 50 years and has become the preferred method for scoring standardized tests. One way to think about the adaptive test is to consider how wasteful the old style was. You had tens of thousands of very high scoring students answering problems that they were all going to get correct (except for a few careless errors). The adaptive sections allows students to do problems that are better at truly defining their scores.
Realistically, all of the students competing for National Merit will have seen the harder modules. While the questions they saw were not identical, all of those modules can be set to a common scale using IRT. None of this means that College Board got it right (!), but it does mean that the ideas behind the test do not necessarily make it less fair.
I just saw the new PSAT score report. We are in NJ and found it interesting that the average score for both sections was bellow the national average. I would have expected NJ to be above that since it usually has the highest cutoffs – or is it a case of having a lot of both extremes? Do you know what the state average has been in the past?
TG,
You’re on the right track. There is often an inverse relationship between average score and NMSF cutoff. It boils down to participation rate. NJ has a high PSAT participation rate. Students across the full gamut of abilities take the test (I show last year’s average for NJ juniors was 966). In states where the participation rate is low, the test taker pool tends to skew high. But even with that skew, it means that many NMSF-capable students don’t bother taking the PSAT (this is common in states where the ACT predominates). That leaves less competition for the state’s Semifinalist slots. NJ, on the other hand, has a lot of high-scoring students who virtually all take the PSAT. The competition is fierce.
Hi Art,
Another grateful “thanks!” for compiling this data and watching – and being willing to project – the trends. The latest update show the Class of ’25 Commended cutoff rising 1 point to 208. How rare or anomalous would it be for the cutoff to actually rise to 210 or 211, given what’s known so far & what’s left to be seen? I ask because my junior received a score giving a selection index of 210, which seems pretty likely to be in the Commended range, but more assurance is always, well, reassuring. Thanks again for the great resource you make available to parents & students everywhere!
R.E.,
It would, I’m afraid, not be that anomalous. If the second batch of scores includes as many 1400-1520 scores as we saw in the first batch, then the Commended cutoff is probably in the 209 – 211 range. If it is exactly 60,000 students in that band, then my Most Likely would be at 210. Alas, that’s probably not all that reassuring. Thank you for the kind words.
PSAT scores just came out. It looks like the cut offs are going to be really high this year with the digital test. Is 226 selection index good enough for making NMS semifinalist in California for Class of 2025? 1510 (750-English, 760-Math)
Thanks!
Willy,
Congratulations! So far we only have half of the scores. That first half looks higher than the last few years, but we’ll know more in another week or two. I can’t imagine a scenario where a 226 doesn’t qualify. Scores thin out rapidly above 223. California has never been above 222.
Thank you, Mr. Sawyer! Based on the statistics from the last few years on your website; I know I should feel confident about the 226 but I am nervous looking at the score inflation with this year’s digital tests. I’ll come back here after the 16th to look for your insights on the full results. Thank you again for this awesome website! 😊
Wow – thanks for compiling this info so quickly. Will wait with fingers crossed until we find out more on Nov 15th.
My daughter was 2022, scored 1440/222 and WAS a NM Semifinalist.
My son is 2025 and just scored 1460 but only 216. Seems weird, no?
Steve,
Not that weird. The Selection Index doubles the RW score, so presumably your son did better in Math (presumably 700RW 760M) and your daughter did better in RW. You may be misremembering her scores slightly. I can’t make a 222 out of a 1440. If she had a 760RW 700M, then she’d be at 222.
Yes, you’re correct. That’s exactly how my son’s score broke down AND my daughter was 221. So….what’s the theory behind doubling the verbal portion?
It dates back 50-60 years, so I’m not sure that there is a useful theory other than “that’s how we have always done it.”
Update: Actually, it seems my daughter took the PSAT twice…something to do with COVID. First one was 10th grade (1440) and then, the one she said “counted”, she scored a 1490 on. Sorry for the confusion.
Ah, that makes sense. Thanks!
PSAT Scores just came out. We are based in alabama and my son got 216 selection index. Seems like scores are a lot more inflated this time around. Would we get a better idea by November 15th whether 216 can qualify him for National Merit Semifinalist
Mark,
We should have a better picture by Nov 15th, although I don’t want to promise that I’ll suddenly know the state cutoffs! We should have a better idea about the general state of the inflation. The good news is that Alabama’s cutoff has topped out at 216 over the past 15 years. So it would take an unusual year for it to go to 217.
Thanks so much for all this amazing information, Art!
I’m relatively new to this and my daughter just received a 1470/220 today (in MA). Sounds like she would be a borderline semifinalist? Still a great accomplishment and we are very proud!
JB,
Absolutely a great accomplishment! Yes, MA is usually right behind NJ for the highest cutoff. A 220 was enough for the class of 2023, so we’ll see how things shake out. Good luck to your daughter!
Hi Art,
Great information! When should we expect to know what the “official” selection index cutoffs will be for the class of 2025? Is it correct that we need to wait until April of 2024 until they are published? My son’s selection index for Pennsylvania is a 220 so he’s right in the middle of the predicted range. Thanks!
Penny,
It’s actually not until September 2024 that things are made official. In April the Commended cutoff usually leaks, but that’s not true of the Semifinalist cutoffs. I’d say that he is better than in the middle. The highest we’ve seen PA’s cutoff is 220. Which not to say that a higher cutoff is impossible in an unusual year.