Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hello Art,
I received a 207 NMSC index score on the PSAT (710 in Math, 680 in Reading and Writing, and Ohio). I know that the Semifinalist score for a state must be higher than the cutoff for being Commended and that for the past three years, it has been 207. I also see that the predicted score is projected to be 208-210, but this is also the first time that College Board released the DPSAT if that has anything to do with the scores. So, what do you think are the odds/percent chance for me getting Commended? Are there any more “national awards” I can get with this score?
Thank you so much!
Robel,
It appears that approximately 7,000 more students received scores in the 1400-1520 score range this year. There is a strong correlation between that number and the Commended cutoff, because that’s approximately 7,000 more students who have a 210 or higher Selection Index. That’s why I think the cutoff will likely go up 1-3 points. If there is something wrong with the data, then a 207 cutoff is possible. Unfortunately, I think the chances are low.
Commended Students are eligible for Special Scholarships. In almost all cases, those are National Merit scholarships offered to the children of the sponsoring company’s employees.
My son in Indiana has a SI 216, same as the predicted number of 216 with range of 213-219.
So, what do you think are the odds/percent chance for him getting into Semifinalist list?
INMom,
[Rather than contradict myself, I am going to duplicate the answer I just gave to another student in your son’s situation.]
I think it’s going to be very close — as in 50/50. In the two classes I think of as analogues given the national numbers — 2017 and 2021 — Indiana had cutoffs of 217 and 215. We’ve seen it go higher than that only when we had far more 1400-1520 students than we have this year.
Hi Art,
Thanks a bunch for breaking down the PSAT stuff. My daughter hit 220 in Georgia. You mentioned 219 as the likely prediction, but the high end of the range is 220. If it’s 220, does that mean everyone at that score is a semifinalist, or could all 221 and above folks get in while only some 220 folks make it?
Thanks,
Walker
Walker,
It is all or nothing, which is why scores can easily tip a point one way or another. NMSC can’t choose to make only some students at a score into Semifinalists, so it can only approximate the target number of Semifinalists. I think 220 is pretty safe. We’ve only seen GA’s cutoff reach 220 during the extreme class years of 2018 – 2020. I’d say there is a 95% chance that the cutoff will go no higher than 220.
Hello,
Thank you so much for taking the time to answer all these responses. I’m from Florida and I scored 216. When I saw the updated November 15th results of 217, I didn’t think I had a good chance. But I saw you updated it to 216 after talking with a colleague in Florida. Out of curiosity, what made you change the most likely cutoff from 217 to 216?
Alan,
As I mentioned, I have a colleague with a great deal of experience with Florida Semifinalists, and we often compare notes. She thinks it is a weak year in Florida, despite the national numbers. That’s why I put my most likely back to 216.
Hello Art, do you think 220 (720 in reading and writing, 760 in math) in Delaware is enough to qualify as a semifinalist? Also, I took the PSAT in Delaware and go to school in Delaware, but live in New Jersey. My scores would be considered for Delaware, right? Thank you for all your helpful insight!
Quinn,
I think you are in the 70-80% zone. There is a good chance Delaware will move up a point, but a smaller chance that it will move up 2 points.
If you commute to a day school in Delaware, then you are considered a Delaware student. If your school in DE is a boarding school, then the school’s cutoff is determined by the highest state cutoff in the region (ironically, New Jersey).
Hello Art,
I received a 222 NMSC index score in Oklahoma. I am Homeschooled and was wondering what steps I might need to take to make sure everything works out smoothly
Isaac,
NMSC sees a lot of homeschool students, so it should work out fine. In fact, you’ve got the advantage that NMSC will send information directly to your home come announcement time. As long as you show as meeting eligibility requirements on your score report, you should just be able to sit back and enjoy the wait. Your parents may get a notification in April that you have made the first cut (in other words, above the Commended level) and need to verify your information — that’s how it works with high schools. They should receive the Semifinalist notification in early September.
We received our homeschool principal letter today, and it states commended level cutoff for 2025 is 208.
Excellent! Thank you, Gretchen. Best of luck for NMSF!
I’ll update my estimates, although I don’t think the 208 will tip my Most Likely for most states.
Hello, Art:
My DD received a 222 NMSC index score in TEXAS, with last year’s cut off in TX set at 221 what will you see her odds of making it in next September? Thanks-
Summer,
She will qualify! Texas will not jump to 223 this year. Congratulations to your daughter!
My daughter received a 1480…..740 on each test section and SI of 222. We are in Indiana. Is this meaning she will be a semifinalist? We are nervous as we don’t know the next steps and want to make sure we keep on top of what her school/counseling office is expected to complete for her qualification to be possible. She currently has a 1470 SAT and 33 ACT with two of 4 subscores at 36. We don’t want to miss a deadline or some such and have her miss out. Are there dates we should know so we can check in with school staff?
Shirley,
I’m almost 4 months late, but I just noticed your post. Yes, your daughter will be a Semifinalist. Her SAT and ACT scores should also be high enough to serve as confirming scores during the Finalist selection. NMSC takes its time getting things together, but I give them high marks for getting accurate information to and from schools. There is not much the school needs to do. Several weeks ago they would have received a confidential letter flagging students who would continue in the competition (208 or above) and asking for confirmation of the information (basically class year/name/etc.). There is no harm in politely asking the college counselor about this (the letter would have been to the principal), but it’s common for schools to stay mum. And NMSC generally won’t confirm or deny anything at this stage. Even if you don’t get an answer from your school, I would be pretty confident that all will go well and that your school will receive a Semifinalist letter in early September. At that stage, your school does need to help out. They will have to write a letter of recommendation as part of the Finalist process and are also in charge of submitting the finalized application. Once your daughter is named a Semifinalist, NMSC is good about shepherding you and your school through the process.
Hi Art!
Thanks for all of your wonderful guidance. My son received a 220 in PA and I feel he has a great shot at advancing to the SF round in September, BUT he has 2 C’s on his transcript from his freshman year, both in core honors classes. Do you think these 2 lower marks will preclude him from advancing to the finalist round? He has a 1520 SAT and will complete all of the necessary requirements should he make it through. Thanks in advance!
Stan,
I am really late with my reply here. NMSC releases zero data on how Finalists perform in terms of academic record. If you have been hunting around, you’ll probably encounter some of the same anecdotes that C’s can be an issue. Is there data to support that? No. My recommendation is to control what you can control, and focus on the steps in the process. Your son is presumably trying to do as well as possible this semester. He already has a confirming score. With a 220 in PA, he is in pretty good shape to make Semifinalist. And if he receives a NMSF letter in September, then he should approach his Finalist application in the same way he would a college application — putting his best foot forward. I know this isn’t the definitive answer you might be hoping for, but your son is still 9 months away from hearing about Finalist status. I believe in cautious optimism.
Hello Art,
I received an index score of 220 in Texas, which is within the predicted range of 218-221 and is the predicted cutoff. I am concerned that many of my friends got the same index score as me and that since it seems that so many people got that score, I am afraid the cutoff score will be 221. Of course, that could just be a coincidence due to my school being above average. What do you think my chances are of making it to semifinalist this year?
Owen,
The 220s at your school are most likely a coincidence (yes, your school is far from average if it has a lot of scores in that range). I can only base my estimates on what we have seen historically. 2-point jumps in large, high-scoring states are uncommon. And we aren’t seeing an outlier year nationally like we did in the classes of 2018 and 2019 (the last times that TX came in at 221). I’d think your chances are better than 80%.
Hi Art, my daughter got SI 216 in AZ. Is AZ considered a state with a large pool of test takers or a medium pool of test takers? Trying to estimate her chances of qualifying to be a semifinalist
Vinila,
Arizona is solidly medium-sized in terms of the number of participants. It’s also a good example of why it is so hard to predict where a state will fall. It has come in at 218, 214, and 216 in the last 3 years — a period of relative calm nationally. That’s a pretty wide range.
Hi Art! I scored a 220 in PA. Do you think my chances are still good at making semifinalist? Thanks for all you do! Kyle
Kyle,
Yes, the 208 can only be good news. There doesn’t appear to be some nationwide surprise coming (not that I thought there was). That doesn’t mean that we won’t see some state surprises. We know that (1) PA has never gone above a 220 cutoff, (2) PA is a large state where big swings are uncommon. So while there may not be a guarantee, I think you are in excellent shape with a 220.
Hi Art,
I scored a 216 in Indiana. What do you think my chances are for making semifinalist, now that we have the commended cutoff?
Thank you
Andy,
Indiana is a little hard to read. The highest cutoff in the last 4 years (216) is lower than the lowest cutoff in the previous 4 years (217). Which period more accurately reflects Indiana? I’d give the advantage to the more recent years. You are right at last year’s cutoff. When looking at results across all states, the previous year’s cutoff is high enough to qualify as a Semifinalist about two-thirds of the time.
Ok, so would you say I have about a 66% chance of becoming a semifinalist?
Andy,
Yes, that’s a fair estimate.
Hi Art! My kid has a 220 in Texas. I am on pins and needles. What are the new odds the National Semifinalist cutoff being 221?
Lisa,
I don’t think the odds have shifted much. The 208 Commended confirmation did at least remove any lingering doubt that a national trend upward was underway (as had been true for the classes of 2018 – 2020, which is also when the TX cutoff was last at 221.). A cutoff jumping 2 points in a large state with a high cutoff and in a flat-ish year would be unusual. I’d put the odds of a 220 qualifying in Texas as at least 80%.
Hi Art,
I scored a selection index of 218 in Rhode Island. What do you think my chances are of being a semifinalist?
Thank you!
Sofia,
Your chances are excellent. In some states, I’d say that a 4-point jump is almost impossible. Rhode Island, though, is very small state that has seen a fluctuating cutoff. Still, I think it unlikely that Rhode Island would see such a jump. I’d say your chances are at least in the 80-90% range.
My kiddo has a 214, so hoping for a 1 point drop, Class of 2025 PSAT10 were lowest in the last five years, so I am hoping that means it’s possible. I think with a 218, you are definitely safe. Congratulations!
Hello Art,
Thank you for the article update. I’ve seen some other people from Florida in this comment section talk about the change from 217-216. Based on the commended cutoff results, what are the chances that someone with a 216 will be a semifinalist in Florida? Do we know how many top-scorers Florida had? I read the class of 2023 report and saw that there were almost 1,000 semifinalists. Do you still stand by 216 as the most likely cutoff after the April update?
David,
College Board doesn’t release numbers by state until it is too late to do any predictions (next October). Yes, the target number of Semifinalists is around 1,000 for Florida each year. I’m still predicting 216 as the most likely, but that does not rule out 215 or 217. An anonymous expert in Florida who I have compared notes with in the past has told me that she suspects 215. I think a 216 is in the 60-70% range.
what about 214
Hi Art,
Do you think the Commended being 208 has any effect on the 213 in Nebraska. Chances that it is actually 212?
Krish,
It improves the chances that the cutoff is 212 or lower. I just didn’t feel that there was enough new information to update the “most likely.” If we look at the years where the Commended cutoff is under 210, Nebraska has been at 212 or lower 50% of the time, so it’s something of a toss-up. Good luck!
Hi Art,
I posted a comment on this forum that you responded to back in November. I got a 218 selection index (1470- 760 math, 710 ebrw) and I live in Georgia. The last time I made a comment you said that the predicted is 219 as shown in the chart and that I simply must patiently wait and not get my hopes up. I assume that I should keep the same mentality moving forward. However, now that the commended score of 208 has been published, lower than the predicted of 209, does this give me more hope?
Thanks!
Bennett,
Thanks for coming back. The 208 is good news in that it tells us that there wasn’t any wide-scale swing due to the digital test. It doesn’t help much in making fine distinctions between 218 and 219. As you already suspected, yes, you’ll need to wait another 4.5 months to know.
Hi Art,
Percentage chance Wisconsin stays at 213 now that the commended score is final? I see you still predict 214.
KJ,
It’s definitely not bad news that it came in at 208! In years where we’ve seen 207-209 Commended cutoffs, WI’s cutoff has been in a narrow band of 213-215. Yes, I’ve still got my most likely at 214, but I encourage you to disagree!
Hi Art,
Any thoughts on Rhode Island? The PSAT10 is required and the Class of 2025 scores were the lowest in 5 years. My child has a 214 and the Cut-off was 215 for 2024, so I remain hopeful.
Elizabeth,
Small state. Large swings. Rhode Island often surprises. Historically the states cutoff was usually 216-218, but in the last five years we’ve seen a 213 and a 220. That’s one of the largest among all states.
You had stated in the article that there might be a large number of alternative entries this year due to some digital glitches on testing days that affected a great many students. My child scored 221 in Colorado and the newly announced commended score is 208. first question: Just verifying if you get a 208, it is confirming….you don’t have to do better than a 208, correct?
Second (and more importantly): Do you think the number of alternative entries still coming in until June could push him out of being named a semifinalist in Colorado?
Michelle,
Yes, for a Semifinalist to become a Finalist, the SAT Selection Index (or ACT equivalent) must be at or above 208 (although NMSC almost never confirms this in advance).
There were some submission glitches on the PSAT. I don’t believe that they’ll have an impact on the cutoffs. Even a 2-3% failure rate during testing is huge (I don’t believe College Board has ever come out with a number). But since any failures would be distributed across the full range of scorers, I don’t think SAT submissions from those students would be enough to tip the scales. And while certain sites had problems, the failures as a whole were not state-specific. Compare that to what happened during COVID cancellations where entire counties and states were impacted.
Hi Art,
What do you think the chance is that the VA cutoff stays at 219 or 220 rather than 221, considering the 208 commended cutoff?
J,
I’d like to claim that I understand why Virginia dropped to 219 last year, but it was honestly one of the biggest surprises of the year. Since the new 1520 scoring was introduced, we’ve never seen VA drop below 221. So does it mean that something has changed in VA or that it was a fluke? My model puts weight on recent years but also considers one-time drops as outliers. That’s why I still have my most likely at 221. The 208 is about what I expected, so doesn’t change my prediction. But as I said, VA shocked me last year.
Hi Art,
I am in Florida. What do you think of my chance with a 216? Thanks so much!
Michelle,
I’ve found that in flat years for the Commended cutoff (and it was relatively flat), about two-thirds of states come in at or below the prior year’s cutoff. I think that’s a fair estimate of your chances. On the positive side, a colleague who works with Florida students believes that it will fall as low as 215. Good luck!
Hi Art,
Any thoughts on California? My son has an index score of 220 in California. He probably just missed being a semifinalist. What are the odds that the index score will be 220 ?
Thank you!
Jennifer,
Large states (and none are larger) tend to be stickier than most, and I think 221 is the most likely for CA. But it was just 2 years ago that we saw a 220. I’d say that the odds are 30-40% that it will drop a point.
Hi Art, we are at California and my child has 222. Do you think the cut off will go to 222 or 223?
Pat,
I really don’t. California has hit 223 before (just once!), but that was during a year when scores overall were quite high. We are not seeing that level of scores this year. I’d put your child’s odds in the 90%+ range.