Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
My daughter has 222 index in Massachusetts where this year’s cut off is 223, then I found that this year, Mass has 294 qualified, and last year it was 379, not very sure what this meant.
Shawn,
NMSC occasionally adjusts the target number of Semifinalists based on high school student population, but what you are likely seeing is the impact of the cutoffs being all or nothing. I actually show the class of 2024 and 2023 numbers as 336 and 359 in MA. Given the high cutoffs MA has, students are tightly clumped together. Let’s say that the target number in MA is 330 Semifinalists based on the state’s allocation. There were apparently 294 at 223 and above. If there were 375 at 222 and above, then the 223 cutoff gets closer to the target number.
Hi Art, Yeah, kind of lucky, or not at all. But thanks for your great work here, and congratulations for all those qualified, good luck for the coming busy months of this senior year!
Regarding the topic of appealing, how people would take the fact that having a 222 index, qualifying or not is up to where you live in US, and this is for national “merit” scholarship program.
Shawn,
First, congratulations on your great score! This is always a hot topic. Depending on your point of view, National Merit has been either consistent or obstinate for 60 years in sticking with state-by-state cutoffs. NMSC feels that the geographic diversity created by the state cutoffs is the best way to represent a national set of students. It’s unfortunate that this also means that many high-scoring students miss out on the opportunity.
Hi Art! Thanks so much for all of your hard work on this…very informative! I have a quick question, are there any statistics about how many boys vs. girls got semi finalist this year? My daughter missed it by one point (darn) but I saw the all boys school next door had 22 times more recipients:..usually they’re pretty even. My daughter doesn’t like the online test and I’m curious if the boy/girl ratio changed a lot this year. Thsnks’
Ali,
Neither NMSC or College Board report score breakdowns by gender. I have not heard of any major shifts because of the change to digital. College Board researchers would generally check for a disparate impact before the introduction of a new test.
Hi there,
My son is at a 208 and I wonder if he will be commended? Announcements not made at my son’s school in FL yet per guidance. From your article I see the cutoff is 208+ but not sure if that means all/some with 208 will receive this distinction.
Kelly,
Commended announcements always lag the Semifinalist announcements, because those letters are not sent until the press release date for NMSF. Yes, everyone at or above 208 will be Commended (unless they qualify as a Semifinalist). Congratulations to your son for being a Commended Student!
Hello,
My son qualified as a semi-finalist out of California with a SI score of 222. I haven’t found any information on how NMSC determines if his SAT score (1490) confirms his PSAT score for him to become a finalist. Is it based on the national selection index score?
Stephanie,
Congratulations to your son! If he logs into the OSA portal, there should be a worksheet on calculating his confirming Selection Index. There shouldn’t be any combination of Math and RW for a 1490 that isn’t sufficient. Students must meet a national selection index which is usually set at the Commended cutoff.
Hello Art,
My kid is a semifinalist, and the school informed him of this a week ago. To our knowledge, he can apply for finalist status. However, his school has not told him anything yet. Would you happen to know the procedure and timeline? Shall we reach out to the school? Thanks.
MG,
Congratulations to your student! He needs to get the letter sent to the school which includes his login information to the Finalist application portal (“OSA”). The application needs to be submitted BY THE SCHOOL by October 9. He completes his part and then the school completes its part. The deadline is soft, but not so soft that you shouldn’t start bothering the school for information.
Thank you for your response, Mr. Sawyer. What do you mean by “The deadline is soft”? So the school can submit the application after October 9?
MG,
I can’t speak for NMSC, but that has been the case in the past.
Hello Mr.Sawyer,
Is there a place where all the NMSC 2025 college sponsors are listed along with the amount of merit money offered by them.
Thanks in advance.
Paddy,
I don’t know of any listing that includes the scholarship value for each of the college sponsors. There have been a variety of attempts at this over the years — at least tracking the largest awards — but they often grow stale. One quirk when discussing this topic is that the largest scholarship awards received by Finalists are NOT actually NMSC college-sponsored awards. Official NMSC awards from colleges are $500 – $2,000 per year and are renewable for 4 years of study. But the truly large awards that many students hear about — full-rides or free tuition — are technically scholarships given by the colleges to Finalists (usually only to those naming the college as first choice). The same outcome, but one scholarship is administered by NMSC, and the other is administered by the college. For example, Texas Tech provides students almost $30K per year to cover tuition, fees, housing, meals, books, and transportation. College Vine lists some of these large awards, although I would recommend checking school websites directly for the latest instructions.
What is the original source of 208 score for Commended cutoff? my son got 209 but not received any certificate from the school. School says they dont know anything about it. How to get certificate?
Satish,
You can find confirmation on the nationalmerit.org website: https://www.nationalmerit.org/s/1758/images/gid2/editor_documents/guide_to_the_national_merit_scholarship_program.pdf?gid=2&pgid=61
NMSC mails letters to high school principals, and the packets would have been sent out around September 12th. Lists of Commended Students are not publicly released, so your best bet is checking with National Merit directly at (847) 866-5100.
Thank you so much! I will check with them.
Hello Mr Sawyer,
My son has a score of 1500, 750 in math, and 750 in English writing and reading. I read your article and found in Texas 219 , and my son is 225. But he has not entered the semi final list. How can I contact the National Merit Scolarship Corporation?
Thanks in advance!
Claire
Claire,
Give NMSC a call immediately at (847) 866-5100. Yes, there is no state where a 225 would not qualify. Did your son’s score report reflect eligibility (essentially, was he listed as a junior)? Have you checked with your son’s school? Good luck getting things straightened out!
Hello Mr. Sawyer,
My son received a 1500 on his PSAT (740 R/W & 760 Math). We are located in New Jersey. Is my son guaranteed to be qualified for semifinalist, or is there any chance the cutoff will jump up 2 to 225? Also, if his score is eligible, what is the next step in the process? I appreciate the help!
Thank you,
John
John,
Congratulations to your son! There is no chance that New Jersey’s cutoff will jump to 225. Unfortunately, the next step in the process is just waiting…. Your son’s school will be notified at the end of August 2025, and your son will be notified of Semifinalist status in September. At that point, he will fill out an online application to become a Finalist. Oh, he will need a “confirming” SAT or ACT score, but that just means he needs to score about a 1400. And he needs to keep his grades up, but I’m assuming that that was already his intention.
my daughter got same score, the index is 224. If the cutoff line is 224, does that mean it includes 224?
Lesley,
Yes, a 224 cutoff means everyone at or above that score qualifies. So, congratulations to your daughter, as we won’t see a 225!
How can you so confidently say that there won’t be 225? My son got a 224 index as well, and we live in Jersey, but does’t it change each year?
Jack,
Scores do change each year. But in the almost 20 years that I have tracked NM scores and across 50 states, we have never seen a legitimate 224 cutoff (Maryland in class of 2022 was a COVID artifact). I also know that scores at the upper ranges tend to be quite stable. Finally, I know that the air gets very thin once you start talking about scores in the 225-228 range. There simply aren’t enough of those scores to fill the slots in a state. I tend to be cautious about flat out statements, but I feel pretty confident saying that a 224 will qualify in New Jersey.
Thanks for this very informative website! My son just got his PSAT score and we didn’t really know anything about this stuff. He scored 720 on RW and 750 on math in Texas. 72+72+75 =219 which has been the cutoff for semifinalist for the last several years. Really hoping it stays there! We were hoping he would make commended but it looks he may make it farther than that.
Drew,
Glad to hear that you and your son had a pleasant surprise with his 219. Yes, he is very much in the mix!
I know it is super early but what are your thoughts on a 214 for Mississippi class of 2026? Thanks so much for all your help!
Brian,
As you say, it is super early, so I don’t yet know how things are shaping up nationally. I will say that your daughter’s score would have qualified in 8 of the last 9 years!
Thank you for your response. We know we are on the upper end of your predicted range for next year but just nervous we could see a 3 point jump from 212(2025) to 215 (2026). Here’s hoping for a two point or less jump in MS for this year.
Hey! Gutted to see my score today- I got a 220 in California. I see that the cutoff last year was 221, so barring a miracle I’m out of the mix, right? Just wanted to get your input.
AC,
Don’t be too hard on yourself. Great score! I don’t think it rises to miracle level; you would just need some things to break the right way. CA did see a 220 just a couple of years ago.
Hi Art,
My daughter got her PSAT score of 1390 with an index of 212. We’re located in Oklahoma and was wondering about her chances for NMSF and if Oklahoma’s cutoff is likely to decrease or increase!
Layla,
Unfortunately, College Board doesn’t release data state-by-state until next October (at which point you’ll already know one way or another). The good news is that it has been a few years (class of 2020) since Oklahoma was above 212. Your daughter’s score is in what I would call the waiting zone. It’s not high enough where she is guaranteed to qualify, but it is certainly not so low as to take her out of the running. Realistically, she is going to be waiting until Semifinalist names are released next September. Fingers crossed!
First, thanks for this amazing resource! Second, I have a question. Virginia jumped 3 points last year (219 to 222), does that make it less likely to go up this year? My son was pleased to get a SSI of 223 on the PSAT score he got yesterday, which would make this year’s cut off, and would make the cut off that you predict for next year. But he is nervous that next year’s cut off will jump again, and if it goes up by more than 1, he’ll just miss the cut off. On the one hand I would think that there isn’t a correlation between change the prior year and change the next, but on the other hand, if Virginia jumped by 2 or 3 points this year, that would be 5-6 points over two years, which seems like a lot!
Corey,
Upward movements become less and less common as the cutoffs increase. There has never been a true 224 cutoff (Maryland had a 224 during the COVID cancellations, but that was because virtually all students had to apply via SAT scores). The 221 least year was more of a return to form than it was a jump. Virginia has traditionally been a top 5 state. No, there really isn’t a correlation between year-to-year jumps. Much of it depends on how well the College Board scales a particular test and how many students enter the competition. I’ll have a better sense of the national numbers in the next 2-4 weeks, but unless something unprecedented happens, Virginia will not go to 224.
My kid, a junior in TX, just scored a 219 which would qualify this year and you show 219 as predicted for next year as well. Looking through Texas’ history it’s been as high as 221 just a few years ago but has leveled off at 219 for the last 3 years. What factors go into your prediction and what would cause it to go up. Obviously we’re hoping for your prediction to be correct.
Sandy,
I take account of the historical numbers and how scores are looking nationally. There is not available data on the individual states, so the estimates are always going to be imprecise. We tend to see high years (210+ on Commended) and low years (under 210). Recently, Texas’s cutoff has hit 221 during those high years. Based on the data I just published, we seem to be in something of a high year (or, at least, a not low year). I don’t want to rule out a 219, but now I think a 220 is just a bit more likely.
Hi,
I scored a 1490, 730RW and 760M leaving me with a 222 in NJ. The cutoff the last couple years, I see, has been 223. Is there any chance it could go down? From everything I’ve seen so far it seems like it is mostly likely going to stay the same meaning I will miss the cutoff by one point. My report listed me in the 99th percentile, but I am aware this is not a guarantee that you will make it because of how these number are rounded. How slim of a chance is there that the cutoff would drop to my 222, and what sort of data could I look out for to give me a better indication before next year when semifinalists are announced?
Quinn,
I just published some data showing that this is more likely to be a strong year rather than a weak one. Unfortunately, that makes it more likely that NJ sticks at 223. You are correct that percentiles are unhelpful, particularly since they refer to prior years.
Hi Art, my class of 2026 son has an index score of 212 and we’re in South Carolina. He had perfect math score but was devastated by his reading/writing score. This past cutoff SC saw a 5 point jump from 209 to 214, what are your predictions for SC – do you think it’s reasonable to hope for a 2 point drop from 214 to 212?
MHB,
South Carolina has certainly been full of surprises. I did not see its 209 coming, and a 5-point jump is always shocking. So I would not rule out a 212. It would be a bit of a surprise to see a 2-point drop in a strong year, but South Carolina has been providing us with surprises.
Hello, and thank you for an excellent resource. Can you explain how the “Most Likely” column for 2026 is estimated? Thank you..
Matt,
I look at the historical record in a state and in similar states and combine it with the current year score trend. I’ve just updated the post to reflect that we now have a good deal of national score data, and it looks like we’ll see a lot of cutoffs move up from last year’s figures.
Thank you for the reply. And again for such an informative web site.
For the group that makes it as NMSFs, is there then any correlation between selection index and eventual NMFs? E.g., 212 vs 220?
No correlation. Your score is high enough for NMSF or it is not. The Selection Index does not play a part in Finalist selection.
I noticed you changed your prediction on Texas from 219 to 220. I scored a 220 (1480) and am trying to remain hopeful that it won’t go up to 221. Do you see this as a large possibility at all?
Lauren,
It looks like there were a lot of strong scores this year, and that is typically associated with high state cutoffs. I wish I could say that we could rule out a 221 in Texas, but we saw it occur in the 3 years when the Commended cutoff was 211 and above. I’d estimate that there is a 1-in-3 chance of it happening again.
Hi from Michigan! My kid managed to get a 219. Any thoughts on how likely she is to make the cut off?
Sherri,
Hi from California! Michigan’s cutoff has never gone above 219. So why, in my estimates, do I allow for it to go as high as 220? Because in an up year — and that’s what I am seeing nationally — there are usually a few new records set. I don’t think Michigan is likely to be one of them. I’d put your daughter’s chances as 90-95%.
Mr. Sawyer,
Thank you so much for the great information. My daughter got NMSC Selection Index sore of 222 from Kentucky. She will be graduating a class of 2026. She took SAT in October 2023 (Sophomore: Fall 2023) and scored 1560. Does this test can be used for the semifinalist criterion? Or she needs to take the SAT again to qualify? Do students need to take SAT/ACT after PSAT results? Please advise
RK,
Congratulations to your daughter! Only the PSAT matters for Semifinalist qualification, so she is all set there. One of the requirements to qualify as a Finalist is an SAT or ACT score. The good news there is that any test date between fall of sophomore year and December of senior year is accepted. And a 1560 is more than sufficient. So your daughter is squared away and just needs to await word from her school in September 2025.
I know it’s early, but what are your thoughts about 214 for Louisiana? 214 was the cut-off for Louisiana for the Class of 2025 and the Class of 2024. Since it didn’t increase for the Class of 2025, is it more likely to increase to 215 or higher for the Class of 2026?
Allison,
The concerning thing is that we are seeing more high scores this year than we have seen in recent years. This year seems to be shaping up more like the ones we saw for the classes of 2017 – 2020, where LA’s cutoff ranged from 214 to 217. Let’s hope it stays at the 214! Because the data are only available at a national level, we don’t really know where Louisiana will fall along that continuum.
Mr. Sawyer, I note that your 2026 projections appear to dated Nov. 6. If I am not mistaken, that was before the release of the Nov. 7 batch of scores. If so, does the Nov. 7 release trend consistently with the Oct. release, trend up, or trend down in the analysis? Mostly interested in Louisiana, but I understand that the numbers you are able to analyze are national. Thank you.
BB,
My post includes scores released to students on Nov 7th, so I’m only expecting a smaller batch (maybe 15% of the total) next week.
Hi from TN- With so many “strong” scores this year will be you adjusting likely scores needed for NMSF? My son has an index score of 220 in TN. Thank you for all the info and data you provide.
SR,
I’ve already made one set of adjustments. I will take another look when the final batch of scores arrives. Realistically, your son will be named a Semifinalist! I don’t see any pathway to a 221 cutoff in Tennessee.
Can you give your opinion on a % chance of a 214 making the cutoff in Mississippi? I see that’s the top of your predicted range. Thanks so much for your work providing this information.
Stephanie,
Mississippi’s cutoff has hit 215 before, but that was back when we saw more students taking the PSAT. I think there is a 90% chance that a 214 makes the cut. As I look closely at the MS data, I probably should include 215 at the upper edge of possibilities.
Mr.Sawyer,
My S scored 220 NMSQT and had 1460 SAT in MI. What is the probability of becoming a finalist?
Thanks
RR,
Your son should qualify as a Semifinalist. I don’t think we can say that 221 is an impossibility, but it’s close. So 99% chance of being NMSF. Finalist is a very different thing in that it does not depend on score alone. Only about 1,000 Semifinalist fail to move on to the Finalist stage. Your son’s 1460 is high enough as a “confirming” score, so he has checked that box. NMSC will also look at his grades, his recommendation, and his essay (all of which would come at the Finalist application stage next Sept/Oct).