Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Do the bold numbers mean you feel certainty?
Jess,
I used that to flag cutoffs where we had narrowed things down to a single score. I think it is more confusing than helpful, so I’ve eliminated it.
Any more news on SC? I’m at a 215 and a bit nervous. Haven’t heard anything from my school yet. Thanks so much for all the updates!
No, the latest report is the qualifier at 217.
I work in a SC school, and as of today, (9/9) we have not received any news/mail. It’s odd.
I wish it were more odd! Thanks for the update, RVH.
What states do you think will be the 210 cutoff, is it going to be multiple?
CJ,
There is not guarantee that there will be a 210 state. NMSC first determines the cutoff for Commended by looking for a Selection Index that would qualify approximately 50,000 students from among the pool of eligible test takers. That was 210 this year. It then looks to get as close as possible to a state’s target number of NMSFs by finding the appropriate cutoff. The catch is that no state’s NMSF cutoff can be below the national Commended cutoff. Let’s say that West Virginia’s allotment of Semifinalists is 65 and that, in order to get to 65, NMSC would need to go to a Selection Index of 208. Instead, WV’s cutoff would be 210 and it might end up with only 55 Semifinalists.
That said, I don’t recall a year where there have ben 0 states at the Commended level. It has happened most frequently in West Virginia and Wyoming and less frequently in the Dakotas. We don’t have any state data that would tell us what states might be at 210 this year.
Hi Art!
Is the CA score – 224 confirmed?
Yes, solid.
I got it in Mississippi with a 214 waiting to see if my friend with a 213 gets it too.
Congratulations!
Does College Board post all the state cutoffs on 9/10? My daughter is Arkansas class of 2027, so I am just seeing how the scores track from 2023-2026.
Would you believe the answer is “sometimes.” One of the reasons I started doing this many years ago is because it was not publishing the cutoffs in a timely manner. I’m hopeful.
MS cutoff at most a 213. My kid has a 214 and another friend of his got in with 213 as well.
Thank you, B. Congratulations to your student!
213 is confirmed for MS. 212 at same school did not make it
Thank you, b! I’ve updated the post.
Someone is commenting on Reddit that with NY 222 their school told they they did NOT make it . Do we have confirmation of that 222 before for NY?
I’m 99% sure that we have a previous report of a 222 qualifying. Checking. In the meantime, I’ve made note of the discrepancy. Thank you.
Does this mean that they made the test too easy? How to interpret this big of a jump?
Malena,
I’ll be doing a complete write-up once we have a full picture. It really depends what we mean by “easy” and “hard.” The questions on the test being easy would normally be offset by a tougher scale. And if the questions are hard, the scale is more generous. On the old paper PSAT, we could say that a given number wrong would align to a certain score based on that form. For example, 1 wrong on Math might be a 750 and 2 wrong a 730. That’s not possible with the digital PSAT. Instead, College Board uses what is known as a 3-parameter IRT model to produce a scaled score based on the specific items seen by a student (not every student sees exactly the same questions). Students with 2 wrong answers could receive different scores depending on the statistics of those items. And each test includes unscored items that are used to try out new questions.
My leading theory is that the item statistics used were flawed. College Board may not have had enough data on them. Also, it’s not easy to accurately scale a test with only 40 problems, even with the adaptive nature of the PSAT. What we can clearly see is that the digital PSAT was more generous (“easier” in that sense) with high scores than it had ever been in the past. Based on the cutoffs, more students earned 740-760 scores than ever before.
Hi,
Any words on the PA cutoff?
No, it has been stubbornly invisible. Please let us know when you hear! Thank you.
I got semifinalist with 224 in PA and also someone with 223 in my school got qualified for NMSQT semifinalist in PA.
Congratulations! PA finally comes through with some intel.
Why do many schools still not have letters for students? I know my daughter’s score of 219 in MS should be good enough (recently saw Reddit post that someone got it in MS with a 213), but I also know the school has not received anything since I am a teacher at the school. My daughter is nervous somehow there has been a mistake.
Janet,
There is no way that a 219 doesn’t qualify in MS (I am assuming that your daughter is not at a boarding school). Reasons that I have seen in the past:
1) USPS. NMSC doesn’t even send the information by Express.
2) Confusion in the mail room. The information goes to the principal, but it is often a college counselor who handles the details. Given your presence in the school, this sounds less likely.
3) Secrecy. NMSC asks that the information not be made public until 9/10. Some schools interpret that to mean that they shouldn’t share the information until 9/10. I’ve seen at least some schools tell untruths to provide cover. “No, we haven’t received anything.”
4) A mistake at NMSC. This doesn’t happen often…except for this year. I am getting multiple reports of counselors receiving incorrect lists (students from other schools mixed in and some students from their school missing).
Don’t worry, mistakes get cleaned up. After 9/10, you or your school’s counselor should be able to contact NMSC.
Same in South Carolina! The principal has checked his box daily, and hasn’t received anything. We are the biggest HS in the state and always have several finalists. At this point it must be a mail issue!
Yes, this is not uncommon.
After the press embargo ends tomorrow, NMSC will generally confirm a qualifier via a phone call. You’ll still need to get the letter from the school, because it has important login information. Your principal will be able to bug NMSC about the letters, as NMSC won’t send one directly to you.
My son was notified that he qualified with a 215 in Iowa!
Congratulations! Thank you for letting us know.
Hey Art – I’m an interested Ohio student and just saw on Reddit that a mother confirmed Ohio cutoff to be at 219. She said the info came from her student’s principal. Thanks for pulling all this info together!
Thanks, Abby! I just included that info on the page.
I got a 216 as a student in Utah, does that mean I qualify for semifinals and if so when and how will I be notified?
Yes, as long as the report of the 216 qualifying is accurate (and I think it is), you will be a Semifinalist. Students are notified via their schools. If you don’t hear after tomorrow, you should be able to call NMSC and ask about your status. You’ll still need to get the letter from your high school, because it will have login instructions for the Finalist application.
Someone in Reddit mentioned OH cutoff is 219
Updated. Thank you for the alert, Steve.
Hi Art,
Is there any further confirmation of 219 in Ohio, or just the one reddit post so far?
Thanks!
Just Reddit, I believe.
Do schools always tell students ahead of the list being published tomorrow? Principal requested a meeting with child for Friday with no stated purpose. Could it be that the school will not tell before the list is published tomorrow? Not a very transparent notification process. 215 in Arkansas…
Jane,
No, they definitely do not. NMSC leaves it up to schools as to how and when to inform students. I wish NMSC would bring the process into the modern age. As I’ve mentioned in a few posts, parents generally have luck getting information from NMSC (by phone) AFTER the press embargo ends.
Bentonville High School notified students today. My coworker has a 2026 winner, but I don’t know the score.
What is the most recent news out of Arkansas? I’m right on the bubble with a 213, and haven’t really seen anything besides the 220 on Reddit. Thanks!
Barrett,
That’s all I have. Good luck!
Arkansas – 216 qualified
Thank you, Petros!
Any news from Nevada?
Marie,
No I have not heard from NV.
Hey Art, any updates on the New York cutoff? Has anyone reliable actually confirmed to have qualified with 222?
Ollie,
I’ve been shaking the trees but don’t have an answer yet. I believe the only report on 222 qualifying was an early Reddit post.
Hi Art! Do you have any idea why the scores jumped so “crazy” with higher-scoring states, but the states in the lower-to-mid range seem to have stayed somewhere around your projected ranges? Just from someone still waiting in a smaller state for tomorrow!
D,
I just happened to answer a similar question earlier this afternoon. It’s a lot of text, so I’ll just link to it.
While the number of 210-215 scores seemed to increase modestly, we saw unprecedented numbers of students scoring 220-228. I’ll cover more theories in a future report.
Is Texas confirmed at 222?
Kristine,
We’ve had multiple students report qualifying at 222. We have had fewer (just 1?), reporting not qualifying at 221. I feel pretty confident in 222.
Is 221 feasible for New York?
JB,
It depends on what one thinks about the student reports. Both come from Reddit, so I don’t have any additional context. Yesterday a student at 222 noted that they were told by their school that they did not make the cut. That would place the cutoff at 223, because there is a report of a 223 qualifying.
BUT, last week a student reported 222 as qualifying. If we favor that report and say that yesterday’s report is mistaken, then a 221 is still in play.
My daughter qualified in Oregon with a 219. Art, thanks for all the work you have put into helping us understand this process!
Congratulations to your daughter, Eric! That’s going to popular news for a lot of students. Thank you.
Thanks for posting! We are in Oregon and have not heard from the school sitting on a selection index of 221. So fingers crossed!
Alaska: my son got it with a 220. Not sure how low the cutoff is though.
Thank you, Matt. Congratulations to your son!
any news on NY?
No, haven’t been able to confirm.
IDK if this means anything, but my friend with a 228 just randomly got a bunch of direct admission offers on his common app. is that correlated to national merit or just random?
Very unlikely that it is NMSF related. Common App maintains its own direct admit program, and I don’t think that it has a relationship with NMSC. It’s likely based on the profile your friend built out on Common App. Not random, but not NM.