Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
My son’s school announced today. RI is 219 with his friend confirmed at 218 not getting it. School has 10+ NMSFs, a new record, though not surprising as top public school in the state.
Great to get confirmation from Rhode Island. Congratulations to your son!
Mr. Sawyer,
If our school still does not notified us tomorrow, will we be able to find the official cutoffs anywhere?
Thanks
Frank,
Here, I hope. 😉
NMSC’s history on publishing cutoffs on the day of the release is mixed. You can check the Press Release page and see if they have updated the Guide to the Merit Program to the 2025 version.
The press release doesn’t really contain any useful info, IMO. I thought it would have more dada (total, number by state, etc.)
https://www.nationalmerit.org/s/1758/images/gid2/editor_documents/guide_to_the_national_merit_scholarship_program.pdf?gid=2&pgid=61&sessionid=201962f4-5ae9-4a13-9dab-a5434299483c&cc=1
thank you!
My daughter is at a 215 in KY and I checked with the school just this morning and they have not been notified or received anything.
Congratulations to your daughter! The mail sometimes gets delayed. They can contact National Merit to see if they can get online access to their list.
Hey! My school sent out an email this morning saying I qualified. 215 from SC. I’m like 90% sure it’s correct, although my school has been known to be disorganized/not know what they’re talking about. Thanks for all the updates, I’ve been checking this page a lot over the past week or so.
It’s correct. Congratulations!
Alabama 214, Alaska 215, Arizona 218, Arkansas 215, California 224, Colorado 219, Connecticut 223, Delaware 220, Florida 219, Georgia 220, Hawaii 219, Idaho 215, Illinois 222, Indiana 218, Iowa 214, Kansas 216, Kentucky 214, Louisiana 216, Maine 217, Maryland 224, Massachusetts 225, Michigan 220, Minnesota 219, Mississippi 213, Missouri 217, Montana 213, Nebraska 214, Nevada 214, New Hampshire 219, New Jersey 225, New Mexico 210, New York 223, North Carolina 220, North Dakota 210, Ohio 219, Oklahoma 212, Oregon 219, Pennsylvania 221, Rhode Island 219, South Carolina 215, South Dakota 211, Tennessee 219, Texas 222, Utah 213, Vermont 216, Virginia 224, Washington 224, West Virginia 210, Wisconsin 215, Wyoming 210, District of Columbia 225, U.S. boarding schools ***, U.S. territories 210, Outside the U.S. 225
Thank you, Alex!
PA cutoff is 221
Thank you, JK.
My daughter did not qualify in Georgia at 219. I don’t know the cutoff, but at least >219. I’m devastated but thankfully she was like “oh well” and went on about her day. I really thought at 219 (730/730), she would qualify. Probably came down to 1-2 questions. If only she had had her 760 in RW from her sophomore year, I’m sure she would have qualified in GA even with this year’s wacky scores. Looking forward to your postmortem . Thanks for keeping us all informed.
I’m sorry that your daughter missed the cutoff (220). She should still be proud of her score!
I look forward to your analysis . Very curious also how many states broke records and by how many points . As a parent, this is my first year learning about all this. We had the highest index our state had previously seen and a corporate scholarship potential so it is disappointing to have the state break records by 2 points . I am also curious how within the states the socioeconomic representation is…. Not sure if your analysis will touch on this or if anything is ever published about this ? Especially with the large states that have pockets of wealth
11 states set new records (12 if you exclude Maryland’s COVID year). All of those records were in high-scoring states. The forces that had kept changes muted in the 220+ states for 20 years suddenly let loose.
NMSC doesn’t report any socioeconomic details. When I’ve looked at the city by city data in the past, they confirm what we know about high scores generally — they correlate with parental education and income.
Hi Art,
Well the late Tuesday Ohio info on Reddit was accurate about the cut off being 219! Phew! My daughter did make it with her 220, as you correctly predicted quite some time ago. In fact, despite the crazy scoring in some of the states, your forecasted range was correct for 42 states, with your “likely” being exactly correct in 1/3 of them at 14.
Thanks again for your informative site and commentary!
Thank you, Chas!
Looks like Montana (a low-scoring state, historically) might have set a new record, too – 4pts up from last year and 3pts higher than your “Likely” (which you continue to nail with a high degree of accuracy across all states, by the way). I wonder if this reflects demographic shifts into Montana over the last 4 years. My kid scored 213, so we’re waiting to hear from the school (since NMSC sends names to media but not to, ya know, “the names” themselves). Thanks for your work here.
CoachW,
In a normal year, there is always a Montana, a small state with a surprise. What made this year so unusual was that surprises extended to the largest states and to the highest scoring states.
Demographic changes could be playing a role, although we do see small states have unusual years occasionally. Montana has fewer than 50 Semifinalists each year, so it doesn’t take much to shift the cutoff. A couple of high schools offering the PSAT for the first time. The presence of some math items that aligned well with Montana’s standards, etc. Some of it just boils down to luck. Those 50 students range from 213 to 228 (last year from 209 to 228), so at some of those indexes, there were very few students.
Or, it’s all about “Yellowstone.” 😉
You should hear soon. If you want your student to do something more productive than waiting, I posted the essay prompt (which never changes).
Art, one thing that’s become apparent over the past two years is that you serve as an important distributor of information about this entire process. Any Google search in the past two weeks quickly led right to this blog. Other blogs use you as their yardstick too.
Given how difficult it is to get information passed through the media, I am wondering if you’ve ever inquired about getting a media credential from NMSC based on this blog. so that you can also receive yhe press releases. I am sure you would reach a wide audience, and it would serve a great public good. There would be concerns about preferntial treatment towards a consultant, but I suspect there is a way through that.
As an example of what is NOT working: NMSC gave me the names of 3 media outlets in my state that they release information to. I had already written two of these – neither has ever released any news about the NMS process. They simply don’t understand it and are not interested.
Matt,
Thank you for the kind words. I suppose that I could ask you for a recommendation letter to NMSC.
A media credential would take away one of the things that I value — the ability to talk openly about the entire process. I don’t want an NDA, I want NMSC to disclose more. Instead, it went in the other direction this year and locked things down even harder. I think the current notification process is unnecessarily cruel. Let’s make students wait 11 months and then dribble out notifications in a haphazard manner. The process that worked 50 years ago needs to be updated. What college still uses the “fat envelope in US Mail” style of admission notification? It’s especially true because, as you point out, media organizations are no longer in a position to carry part of the burden.
I’m a big supporter of National Merit, and NMSC does an amazing job on so many things. It’s a wonderful organization that I want to see thrive. The Semifinalist process needs to be improved.
Any news on NC besides a 220 cut off? My son school has heard and received nothing and multiple other posters on Reddit saying the same. Also can’t find any press releases.
Linda,
That’s not unusual. The notification process is…dated. Now that the results have been released, you should be able to call NMSC to get your son’s status confirmed. He’ll still need the letter from the school within login information to the OSA (Online Scholarship Application), but there is really no rush. Other than the essay, the application will take an hour (if he types really slowly) to fill out. The essay prompt is the same that NM always uses, so he can get started on that, too. It’s so general that one of his college essays can be quickly tailored.
To help the reviewers get to know you, describe an experience you have had, a person who has influenced you, or an obstacle you have overcome. Explain why this is meaningful to you. Use your own words and limit your response to the space below.
I think students find that they can fit about 600 words. Good luck with Finalist!
My daughter is at a 228 in NJ and I have not been notified any from school yet. Should I contact the school?
Yes, I would start there, because the letter from the school has the login information needed for the next stage. Check out the post that should be right above yours for the essay topic.
Glad Maryland is not the crazy 226!
Yes, the 225s were crazy enough!
Mr. Sawyer,
What is a high enough confirming score? Here are the tests I have taken:
ACT #1:
35E 31R 32M 33S (33 composite)
ACT #2:
34E 35R 32M 28 S (32 composite)
Test 2 would result in a high confirming score, however, it is not my highest composite score, and I believe they do not superscore (my superscore is a 34 if that matters). Would they take Test 2 or Test 1? Do my scores look high enough to advance to finalist?
Thanks!
Frank,
Short answer: Submit test 2 and you are good to go!
Long answer:
NMSC doesn’t use your composite school when evaluating your standing for Finalist or Scholar. The confirming score requirement is strictly pass/fail, and you pass. Your combined E+R is 69 and that concords to a 740 RW. Your 32M would be a 730 M. That gives you an SAT Selection Index of 221, and you should be good with 210 or higher (NMSC generally sets things at the Commended level). I know it seems odd to send your “lower” score, but science is completely ignored. No superscoring with National Merit.
Hi Art,
I just wanted to thank you for your incredible work. I’ve left several messages for this entire process, and you were always there to reply in a timely manner. The effort that you put in, cycle after cycle, is really admirable. Please keep being an incredible resource!
Thank you, Janet! Every year I hit a lull in June/July where I wonder whether I’ll have the energy for Aug/Sep. And then each year I get excited to help.
Art,
This might be a bit early, but given the way that things ultimately unfolded this year, what do you think is going to happen with next year’s national merit competition? Cutoffs, scaling, notification process, etc.
Veron,
I think the most important takeaway from this year is that high-scoring states are no longer immune from the disruption seen in the past at the Commended+ range. Has College Board lost hold of the scale or is this just a fluke from a bad test date? I don’t think we can know definitively, but either way we now know to expect the unexpected.
NMSC had more than its share of fumbles this year, so maybe it will get them thinking about modifications in the future. I don’t expect those changes to happen for the class of 2027. The glass half full view is that at least we know how the process works!
Magnet school in Texas just announced and said the cutoff was 223 this year for Texas.
Austin,
My guess is that they didn’t have any students at 222 and assumed the cutoff was 223. The Texas cutoff has been confirmed as 222 by National Merit. Thank you!
Thanks for posting the state data link above. Is there anyway to find out the district or school data for a state? I am just curious as I am trying to understand the TN data. This year the cut off for TN jumped 2 points to 219. I know this was possible since it has happened before but not likely (I have followed your projections closely). Our district is a very high performing district. When you look at last year’s data, the cut off of TN was 217 that resulted in 319 semifinalists statewide of those 88 were from our district (27.9%). This year even though the cut off was raised to 219, I’d expect to see our district perform similar to last year. The state number for semifinalists was 306 (at the 219 cut off so fewer than last year which would be expected); however; our district only had 60 semifinalist (down to 19.6% of the state semifinalists). This tells me either a lot of students improved tremendously (outside of our district), maybe a school was added that skewed the numbers, perhaps our students did not improve proportionally with the state improvement, or maybe we just have a lot of students that scored at the 218 index? I like for the math to make sense, but I cannot get it to so I’d love to know what happened. Yes my daughter scored 218 and did not make the cut. So is more data available. Just curious. Thanks for all the information you provide.
Amy,
National Merit does not provide any information below the state level. College Board makes some school and district data available, but only to the school and districts. And District X doesn’t have access to District Y.
The odd thing about this year is that the 2-point rise was what we would “expect” from Tennessee. Twenty-five of fifty states went up by exactly 2 points, and thirty-two went up by 2 or more points. The extent of the increase makes me believe that the change is attributable more to College Board than anything at the student level. Tests are not always scaled perfectly, and this year’s PSAT is evidence of that.
So why did the number of Semifinalists in your district go down? You’ve outlined the leading theories. We sometimes see that level of shift at top schools that might have do – 80 NMSFs. We are, after all, only talking about a shift in 28 students. I don’t know if you’ve gone back further and seen how consistent the NMSF numbers are for your district. In the “old days” of paper testing, I would have tried to investigate whether different forms of the PSAT performed differently. We saw, at times, where the Wed test produced highly dissimilar results to the Saturday test (and not simply due to differing pools). The digital PSAT is scaled such that all of that information is invisible to us. The questions used, the parameters of those questions, the score distributions, etc. are all hidden away. Did your district’s students take a test that produced an anomalous result versus the majority of other districts? We saw that arise sometimes on the paper test.
My daughter’s counselor said school still did not recieved any yet and she thinks it will be later in the month! But I see so many other schools posted their semi-finalists already. Does it come by email? or package to school?- NJ
JK,
The information comes via snail mail. In the past, NMSC mailed everything at once — a school’s list and a larger master list. This year NMSC only mailed the basic list and told schools that everything else would come later. The counselor should be able to call NMSC and usher things along if they are willing to do that. You can call NMSC to confirm that your daughter qualified. If she did, then really all you need to do is have your daughter start on the essay (prompt is in our NM FAQ), make sure that she has the confirming SAT/ACT score, and remind the school that they’ll need to follow up. The school’s most important role is getting your daughter the login information and then submitting her completed application along with a recommendation. That’s not until October. NMSC wants students to participate and will make it happen. It’s just not great about making it happen all at once.
I’m sure she is qualified since she got a perfect score, 1520. Thank you for your info
Mr. Sawyer, what is the percentage of PSAT test takers that qualified as Commended from the Class of 2026?
Petra,
Almost 41,000 qualified as Commended this year from a pool of 1,445,000 test takers. That’s about 2.8%.
Mr. Sawyer,
what is the expected cutoff for finalist? I am in GA and my SAT NMSC index will be 223.
Thanks
AG
AG,
The confirming score cutoff is set nationally rather than by state. In the past, the cutoff has been at the Commended level, so I expect 210 to be sufficient. 223 certainly is!
Thank you. any other insights into what is required to make it to the 15000 finalist list? I am assuming SAT NMSC Index is just 1 factor. If there is anything else I can focus on my application, then please let me know. Thanks again!
AG,
For good or bad, much of it is out of your hands at this point. Your grades definitely matter! You’ll need a recommendation from the school (they are usually happy to do it). And your own essay, of course, although I believe that’s used more at the scholarship stage than the Finalist stage. Handle those things and you’re likely to be a Finalist.
Hi Art,
Thank you for the great write-up and analysis and keeping us anxious parents/students posted through the entire process. As we keep moving on with this process with our current senior, we will keep monitoring your blog and be back in a year with our current sophomore going through this again!
Ely,
Glad that I can help. I look forward to having you as a returning visitor!
Art,
Have you ever seen a student make NMSF when they were not on the original press release? Our school announced a student who wasn’t on the National Merit list for the state originally. Is there an appeal process for NMSF or a lower cutoff for students with testing accommodations? Just seems odd…
Thanks for all you do!
It’s not that uncommon. It definitely does not represent a different standard — the student must meet the same cutoff. NMSC deals with tens of thousands of students, many of whom are on the move — either geographically or between class years — so things can fall through the cracks. Sometimes students list the wrong thing such as class year on the registration form, and no one catches the mistake until it’s too late to get on the printed list. [I’ll bet that there are more than a few students dealing with that situation right now!] Some alternate entry students can also lag behind.
I don’t think it’s any of those things, but thank you for super quick response!! I don’t know how you do it!
Hi – my son, class of 2026, got a selection index of 213, his school has not received anything about him being a commended student. Even though he is not a semifinalist, it would still be good to include being a commended student on his college application. How should we go about looking into whether he should have the recognition? Thank you!
CC,
As long as he scored at 210 or higher and took the test as a junior, then he is a Commended Student. Your best bet is to contact NMSC directly to see if they can give your confirmation, but I would not be hesitant to list it on his application. (847) 866-5100