Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
A North Carolina student has reported a qualifying 219.
Thank you, Bob!
Hi Art – thank you for all of the information! Question – has PA been confirmed for 218? I note the change on your list but that there is still a notation about 219 above?
“Confirmed” is a loose term at this stage in the process. The original information came from a counselor who had a qualifier at 219 but may not have had a student with a 218. I received a report from a student qualifying at 218, so I think we’re at <=218. I just deleted the old language.
I’m from MS, and I and another from my school qualified with a 214 :D. The next closest was a 209 I think, so no real help on the cutoff.
Congratulations to you and your classmate!
Anymore info on MS
Confirmed at 213 Mgm.
Was the California rumor of 220 not making it confirmed by other people as well. So far I know of one person who claimed that but don’t see other comments. At least with Texas, many people stepped up and backed up the new 220 score cutoff. Waiting on a reliable source to confirm whether or not 220 made It or not.
No, it has not been further confirmed. I’ll add the caveats to the post. I agree that it would be nice to get more reports.
What are your thoughts on the debate of 220 vs 221? Trying to get additional insight. Thanks as always!
Sorry to be wishy-washy, but my thoughts are that I’d like to get some definitive information.
Received Semi Finalist confirmation from Alabama with a 213.
Congratulations to your student!
Any news on VA cutoff ? Thanks
r/psat had an early report of a 219 cutoff, but I haven’t seen anything to confirm or deny.
Thank you! This is such a relief to hear because my daughter has a 213, but her school hasn’t released any information yet.
My son was notified by his school that he’s a semi-finalist in South Carolina with a 216. Anecdotally, one of his friends who is also a semi-finalist here has said that he had a 215 (just word of mouth on that score, though).
Thanks, CD! Congratulations to your son.
What is Ohios SI and how did you get that number?
Also, why are the semifinalist numbers fluctuating between increasing and decreasing for most of the states?
Thank you so so grateful!
OH Parent,
In most cases, the upper bounds of cutoffs come from student reports. An Ohio student reported qualifying at 215, so the cutoff should be <=215. Cutoffs fluctuate regularly because each state's cutoff is completely independent. Sometimes states have more participants one year than next. Or an important feeder drops the PSAT. Or the state just has a weak class. Keep in mind that many of the "cutoffs" are simply maximums at this point and not the final cutoffs.
received a semifinalist notification with a 225 in illinois, which isn’t too helpful for guessing cut-offs, but haha.
Yeah, I don’t think there were too many 225s losing sleep over the cutoff! Great job. It’s always nice to actually get the notification.
Any update on semifinal index cutoff for Maryland?
Are all principals notified even if a student doesn’t make semifinalist or only if the make cutoff?
I haven’t seen anything, Bill. I believe that packets only go to schools with NMSFs. Commended letters go out later.
Thanks, Art. Truly appreciate your response.
We are also in Maryland and haven’t heard anything … the waiting is killing us! Wondering if mail is slower in Maryland, or Principles have been instructed not to release early (both benign reasons) or if so many AEs have delayed MD reporting (not so benign!). It doesn’t really seem likely that NMSC would release some states but not others though, right?
The mail goes out at the same time, but keep in mind that MD is not a large state. We’re still in the dark about NY, so it’s not all that surprising that we don’t have confirmation on Maryland.
Am curious: If student is an alternative entry (took SAT last Oct. and scored 1580 on it) – no PSATs due to Covid – will student get letter now along with the rest of the semifinalists or does that come later? Are there some states where no PSATs were administered?
MP,
In most cases, yes. If a student applied and got scores to NM promptly, they should be on the initial lists. If they submitted scores after NM’s internal deadline (which I don’t know), they’ll eventually be notified.
I believe every state had at least some PSAT administrations. The cancellation decisions were made at the school and district level.
When do you estimate results will officially be released? P.S. anything about Illinois yet?
Dan,
Results aren’t officially released in the classic sense. NMSC does not publicly post cutoffs. It sends the names of Semifinalists to schools and to media outlets. In the case of the latter, it embargoes the information until 9/15. But there is no requirement for media outlets to publish the information. Every year there are still students trying to track down their status, even after the end of the embargo.
Still no news on NY? Does news from NY come slower than other states typically?
Information does seem to come out slowly in NY each year. I don’t if it’s because of the concentration of NMSFs in NYC magnets or just coincidence.
I can confirm the Mississippi cutoff is at most 213, as that’s what my SI was and I recently got notified that I qualified for Semifinalist status
Congratulations, Ray! I just received additional news of 213 in MS.
Just got confirmation from the school counselor that my D22 qualified as a NMSF with a 218 in Missouri! The school is not planning to tell the kids until 9/15, though.
Congratulations, Jill! Yes, some schools take the cautious approach of waiting until the press release deadline.
Hey Art! I noticed that you removed the asterisk from TX. Have you received more confirmation that it is <=220? Thanks so much!
Received a report of a 220 qualifying, so I decided to remove the asterisk.
If you are a semifinalist with a n index score of 220, is a 1470 SAT score high enough for a confining score. I’m a little confused about that.
Thank you
Amanda,
The confirming score is set nationally and usually is at or near the Commended level (using the SAT score to produce an SI). Yes, 1470 will be high enough. There are more details on our National Merit FAQ page.
HI, Has anyone heard for sure that a confirming score will or will not be required this year, since was not required for 2021? Does the confirming score change state to state, or student to student, or is there be one confirming score for the whole country? Daughter looks to be 2 pts above NMSF threshold for our state, but only took ACT once end of 10th grade. She is signed up to take both ACT and SAT in October, but not sure if needed, and already stressful enough with 5 AP classes.
thank you.
M of S,
The confirming score is a national figure for all students. It is generally set at the Commended level, but NMSC does not officially state that, so theoretically has some discretion. I recommend that students try to clear the threshold by a few points, so a 210 SAT/ACT Selection Index this year. See more information here about converting the ACT components to a Selection Index.
thanks, she’s at a 208 if I’m doing the calculations right. Are they taking ACT’s new “superscoring” into account this year? Just curious.
They’ve never superscored, so I really doubt that they’ll start now. I would give NMSC a call. They are usually more forthcoming after the 9/15 press release, but the worst they can do is say no.
Hi Art,
Legally speaking, are public schools bound to secrecy till Sept 15th? Can a counselor or principal tell a student if they qualify or not for SF in strict confidence prior to Sept 15th? What authority does a private entity like NMC have that overrides a student’s privileges or immunities granted in the 14th amendment? All other College Board data go through the student- why should this competition be any different? If some students are notified earlier like homeschoolers, don’t they have more time to prepare application material (like essays) for the Finalist competition? Sorry for all the questions- this whole process has taken a toll on me!
The request is that they not release the information beyond notifying the student and counselor. Some schools still like to wait until the press release deadline (or are mistaken in believing that they must wait). Some schools, for example, have NMSFs pose for a picture or publish something on the school’s socials. For that, they are supposed to wait until 9/15. I know of no penalty beyond a wrist slap. College Board is not directly involved with NM selection or notification, and NMSC still prefers to work with the schools (since there is also eligibility information that needs to be confirmed). At the Finalist stage NM starts communicating directly with the student. The essay question has not changed in a number of years. I believe I have it on our FAQ page. It’s general enough to work with most Common App essay choices.
Hey Art! I noticed that yesterday the Texas cutoff of 220 hadF an asterisk next to it, but it has since been removed. Were you able to confirm this cutoff? Thanks in advance!
Faris,
It’s not confirmed as being 220, but with an additional report of a student qualifying at 220, I didn’t feel the need to leave an asterisk.
Oh awesome! That provides some relief, thank you!
Oklahoma cutoff confirmed at 210. Student with 209 was not a NMSF.
Thanks, MLCA. I’ve updated the post.
Art – what’s your source for NJ 222? Is that a =222 or <=222?
<=222. I received an NMSF report from a student with 222. Reddit had an early mention of 221, but I wanted to be conservative given that NJ is usually the highest cutoff.
Hi Art,
Just making sure– this means that you know for a fact someone from NJ with a 222 made semifinalist?
As long as if by “fact” we accept that it’s a report from a student on the internet. Considering that there has been a report of 221 elsewhere, I think the 222 figure is conservative.
Hi! Do you know what the Illinois cutoff is likely to be?
Matthew.
I haven’t received any direct reports, but I believe r/psat has had a student reporting qualifying at 221. That means IL would come in <=221.
Art – I have a data point about a NY student qualifying with a 220.
Thanks, ATTABOY! I’m sure there are some NY students who will be happy to hear the news.
Hi! I was just notified by my school that I am a National Merit Semifinalist. (Score: 221, State: CT) And thank you for collating this data.
Congratulations, Natalie! I’m away from my computer, but I’ll update the post with your information.
Hi Art, Do you have cutoff information for Massachusetts ? Thanks.
Nothing on MA. My guess is that it’s going to come in between 220 and 222, with a “most likely” at 221.
MA Dad,
I answered too quickly. I just got an email from a parent with a student (and friends) qualifying at 221. So we’re officially at <=221. [And a thank you to that parent!]
Qualified in Illinois with a 219. Thanks for keeping track and for the great information you provide!
Congratulations to your student, VHP! Glad to hear that 219 made it. Thank you.