Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi I got a 222 in Illinois, will I definitively make the cutoff? Thanks!
Vib.
I’d say 99% sure.
Art
Thank you so much for the information in your article. My daughter’s PSAT/NMSF score this morning looks like she will qualify as a semifinalist in California. She has taken the ACT, but not the SAT. Can she submit her ACT score as part of her finalist application? Would you recommend that she take the SAT and submit that score instead? Thanks again
Congratulations to your daughter! There is no reason to switch from ACT to SAT on account of National Merit. Several years ago it finally broke down and started accepting ACT scores on equal footing. Calculating a confirming score Selection Index is a little complicated, but you can find the necessary information in our FAQ.
What are the chances that a 220 will qualify in Texas?
Luke,
I think it’s close to 50/50 or maybe a bit better. Given the national numbers, I think 220 is just a bit more likely than a 221. Good luck!
Hey, I got a 219 index score, and live in Oregon. What do you think my chances would be??
Thanks Art!
J,
Oregon is a tough state to predict. It was one of the only states last year to see a 3-point rise, and it was almost certainly driven by Alternate Entry, because PSATs were canceled in the majority of the state. So will things stay at 220, or will they drop back to the 217/219 seen in other “weak” years? I was conservative with a 220 Most Likely, but there is a good case for the cutoff being lower.
First of all, thank you so much for such a great, thorough article that analyzes all data so well! Words can’t describe how much I appreciate it! I agree with your predicted national commended cutoff of 208. If one was to look at where the Oregon semifinalist cutoffs were for graduating classes strictly before 2022, it appears that a better case could be made for a Oregon semifinalist cutoff of 218 or 219 instead of 220. If you were forced to bet $10,000 on it, would you want to put your money on 220 or 219 (or something even lower than that)? Thanks!
J,
I think the fact that Oregon was still able to reach 220 last year and has hit 221 made me a little cautious. Oregon has also seemed like a state on the rise in recent years. But you’re right that I’ve used your logic in a number of cases. If I only got a payout for being right on the money, I’d likely go with 219.
Hi Art – Are there any chances CA will dip to 220 for Class of 23? The younger son was hoping to match his brother.
Regina,
I’d say it is unlikely but not impossible. 2020 was about the worst we could imagine with the PSAT in California, and yet it still hung on to a 221 cutoff.
I have a 221 in California; what are my chances?
A.D,
IMHO, California will come in at 221 or 222. I give the edge to 221, so I’d say at least 60/40.
Hello Art,
I live in California and have a 222 selection index score. Do you believe that this will be enough to qualify, or is it possible that it will be raised up to 223-224?
Thank you!
AC,
I strongly believe that California will see either a 221 or 222 cutoff. I don’t think a 223 can be completely ruled out, but a 2-point increase from last year and the down classes of 2017 and 2020? Doesn’t seem likely at all.
Hi, Art, my son has 218 SI in California, which NSMS award can he qualify? As I only see 221-223 as qualifying score. And higher than 99% is comparing to national level, right? Thanks!
Jennifer,
Your son will be a Commended Student. Unfortunately, California is one of the most competitive states in the country when it comes to National Merit. Yes, percentiles are national comparisons. Also, I believe the 99th percentile for that score is the Nationally Representative Sample (a hypothetical group of all students in the country) versus the User Percentile, which is based on historical PSAT-takers. The latter would be a little lower.
Hey art, what are the chances I could qualify as a semifinalist in Washington with an Index of 220?
AB,
I don’t have any inside information on Washington, but I try to set me Most Likely — which is 220 — where I feel there is at least a 50-70% chance of qualifying.
It seems that about 1% of PSAT takers (15,000 from 1.5 million) end up as Finalists. DD has a 99th percentile composite, and a 207 index score in Kansas, which is a 11 points below the historical and expected cut-off for semi-finalist qualification. Yet I would expect her to be close to the top 1%, given the composite percentile, unless Kansas (relative to test takers in other states) has an unusually high concentration of high scorers. Is that the explanation for how a 99th percentile test taker could be far from qualifying as a semi-finalist? Or am I missing or misunderstanding something else?
Mark,
College Board makes the most prominent percentile what it calls Nationally Representative Sample. What that means in English is “We made up a number that we think represents the percentile if every kid in the country took our test.” That’s different than the User Percentile, which is what you and I would probably think makes more sense — how do you rank among the students who actually took the exam? Also, if your student did better on Math than ERW, her composite percentile would be better than her Selection Index ranking (which College Board does not provide). The College Board definition also defines the percentile as the students at or below a certain score. So if 1% of students are at the 99th percentile, then 30,000 students got that score or better. I’ve written a lot about College Board percentiles in the past, and few of my words have been kind.
Hi Art – thank you for these beautiful descriptions and clear translations of CB verbiage. Do you remember when CB introduced “Nationally Representative Sample”? Did they provide a reason? (If this is in another blog post you’ve done, please feel free to just link that as your reply.) Also – I thought there was an SI formula that they used… is that based on the User Percentile or the Nationally Representative Sample? You wrote in the article here about the PSAT being “well-designed to measure the performance of the average student, but is more prone to error at the edges”. Did you ever write more about this that I can offer to parents to read? (I’m a CC at a Georgia HS.)
Lindsey,
Thank you for an interesting set of questions.
I believe the Nationally Representative Sample was created when College Board introduced the new PSAT in October 2015. Let me see if I can condense the history: When David Coleman took leadership of the College Board, he set a goal to expand the reach of the PSAT and SAT. There were several threads: remake the tests to be more aligned to curricular standards (ACT had been winning this war), get the tests more integrated as part of state testing programs (again, something ACT had been out in front on), and creating an “SAT Suite of Assessments” that extended to lower grades (more customers!).
So where do NRS percentiles fit in? Let’s say I’m a state secretary of education. Do I want a test that is normed against an elite and changing group of test takers, or would I prefer a test that matches my state’s students to all of the other students in the country? College Board clearly assumed the latter. College Board would argue that by providing both the NRS and the User Percentiles that they have something for everyone. I’ve never trusted the NRS, partly because of how wrong College Board got them at the outset. If you want to read way too much about this part of the PSAT’s history, you can find more in this post.
The Selection Index is National Merit’s baby rather than College Board’s. All the SI does is take the Reading, Writing, and Math scores and combine them. It doesn’t factor in percentiles at all — which is for the best. National Merit is looking for an absolute number of students. If 50,000 students are going to receive honors, it moves down the SI until it hits 50,000 (approximately). NMSC never has to use percentiles.
Test designers need to consider for whom they are optimizing an exam. If I am testing a group of mathletes and give them some arithmetic and basic algebra, what is likely to happen? Most will ace everything, and the errors that occur may say more about careless bubbling than about underlying math ability. Conversely, if I give trig questions to 7th graders, I’m largely measuring guessing ability. Those are extremes, but the same holds when designing a PSAT. If I put questions that are most appropriate for an 800 (total) scorer, they are likely too easy for a 1400 scorer. If you were College Board, would you optimize your test for the 99% of students who won’t be Semifinalists or for the 1% who will? There aren’t that many problems that are challenging to the typical Semifinalist, so a ranking based on those problems is going to have more error. The fact that the PSAT is geared toward 11th AND 10th graders accentuates this problem. It’s the SAT and its 1600 scale that provides a bit more headroom than the PSAT and its 1520 limit. This post about the 2018 SAT gives a deep dive into some of the problems that occur with scaling when a test is too easy. There is also this post that I wrote about the 2019 PSAT. It gives some insight into how little room for error exists for both test creators and test takers when an easy test is used to measure elite students.
Hey Art!
Firstly, thank you for all the research you have done on the cutoff scores. I’m from Montana and earned a 209 index score, so I am trying to figure out where that will land me. After reading through all the data and summary, I’m thinking that I’ll qualify as a Commended, but not as a Semifinalist. What are your thoughts?
Selah,
I think you are my first Montanan poster. Welcome! I wouldn’t abandon all hope for Semifinalist status. In the 3 weaker years from the past 6, the cutoffs have been 210, 210, and 208.
Hi Art,
Thank you for this information. My son had a selection index of 221 in California. I know that your predicted range is 221-223, but how much of a chance would you say my son has of qualifying? (I’m wondering if the number’s likely to stay the same as last year or probably go up).
Thank you!
Anonymous,
It’s hard to base much on last year’s number in California because it was so dependent on Alternate Entry. I think there is a better than 50% chance that California’s cutoff will be at 221. The years it hit 222 and 223 were ones where we saw more high scores nationally. It’s going to be close enough, though, that we’ll all be anxiously awaiting September. Good luck to your son.
Hi,
My son scored 1390 and it says he is in the 99th percentile nationally – is this correct?
Andra,
Your son’s 1390 is 99th percentile for what College Board calls the Nationally Representative Sample. The sample is an estimate based on every junior in the country taking the PSAT. Among those actually taking the PSAT, a 1390 is the 96th percentile.
Hi,
My kid is in Virginia — and got a 223. I’m thinking that’s a go? What do you think? And do the kids find out about it before the fall so they can list it on applications and resumes? Thanks for your help.
-KD
Kate,
I agree with your assessment. I don’t think Virginia will go above 223 — especially this year. Students aren’t notified until September — so just in time to add it to applications.
I got a 1400 in illnois, 730 math 670 reading, 207 nmsc score, will i make commended cutoffs?
znnn,
It’s going to be close. While I think that a 208 cutoff is most likely, it’s possible that the cutoff stays at 207 (in which case you would be Commended).
Hi, Thanks for yr detailed analysis. In Texas my daughter SI 219 Your estimate of her chances into Semifinalist & when officially we come to know the cut off .
Sanjay,
While I think it’s more likely that Texas’s cutoff will remain at 220, I’d say your daughter still has a 30-40% chance.
Posting from CA with a 222 score. Chances of making semi finalist?
Tpp,
California’s cutoff has hit 223 before, but that was in a year where every cutoff was high and the Commended level was 212. The chances are very good that you’ll be a Semifinalist.
Hello,
My son has received a 1490 in PSAT, we are in PA.
What are the changes of making to the semi-finals list? Is the cut-off mentioned here to get into the top 50k or the 16k semi finalists?
Thnx so much for sharing this information.
AG,
The Commended cutoff is for the top 50,000 students nationwide, and I expect it to be in the 207-209 range. While 16,000 students become Semifinalists, each state gets an allocation. Basically the top 700 scorers in Pennsylvania will become Semifinalists. I expect that cutoff to be around 217-220. The total score — your son’s 1490 — is not used in determining his rank. Instead the Selection Index is used. The SI doubles the weight of the ERW score. With a 1490, though, even the lowest possible SI will qualify him in PA. All that is a long way of say: congratulations to your son!
What are the odds that the Commended Score stays at a 207 or lower? I live in Louisiana and scored a 207, so I was just contemplating my chances.
John,
There were enough more students testing this year than last that I don’t think the cutoff will remain at 207. But I did estimate a range of 207-209, because it’s not impossible.
I”m not sure how to interpret your comment. Do you think the cutoff will go up or down from 207 given that more people took the test? Thank you.
More people taking the test generally leads to higher scores. For the Semifinalist cutoff, though, all that matters is how many students took the exam in Louisiana.
I got a 220 in NC. How likely is that to make the cut?
Richard,
I think it’s 99%. Even in the best years North Carolina has only reached 220. I don’t see it going to 221 in a weak year like this one.
Hi Art,
My daughter just took the PSAT in Wisconsin and scored a 1390 with a 213, where do you think she will qualify in regards to commended vs semi finalist?
Thanks for all your great work!
Erin,
While a 213 cutoff is at the low end of my estimated range for Wisconsin, the state did end up at 213 2 years ago. If we see low scores (which we ARE seeing) and a low turnout in WI, your daughter could be a Semifinalist. She will be at least a Commended Student.
My son is in Indiana. He scored a 1460 with a SI of 219. He has a 1550 on the SAT with a perfect 800 on the math portion. Do you think his chances are good for semifinalist or finalist? He has a perfect GPA and has numerous college credits thus far including all the way finishing Calculus 3.
Jeanne,
Your son is almost certain to qualify as a Semifinalist given his 219 SI. He’s also in great shape to make Finalist. He has the confirming score and his grades are where they need to be. As long as he has the support of his school — sounds like that won’t be a problem — then he should be a Finalist.
Hi! I saw that the bottom number for Florida’s range changed from a 216 to a 215. I got an index score of 216! What would you say a rough possibility of the cutoff being 216 is? I’m a bit distraught that I might just miss the cutoff.
CS,
We are seeing weak numbers nationally, so there is still a chance of a drop in Florida from last year’s 217. I’d congratulate yourself for a great score and then try not to worry about it until September when we find out the real cutoff.
Thank you for the exceptionally clearly written information and details in this article, Mr. Sawyer. Our son scored a 1420 and his SI is 216 (Kentucky). What do you think his chances are for Commended and Semi-Finalist? We are new to this!
Thank you, Julie. He is guaranteed to be at least a Commended Student with that score. I don’t think we can completely rule out Kentucky having a 217 cutoff, but I’d say 75+% chance that a 216 will qualify. The thing about Semifinalist qualification is that all you need to do is hope and wait. So new-ness isn’t a handicap!
Hi Art,
Thanks for all the great information. I got a 219 in FL. What do you think my chances are at National Merit?
Anon,
I think you’re a lock. Florida won’t go above 219 this year. The state’s cutoff will likely stay at 217.