National Merit Semifinalist Cutoffs Class of 2027

Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.

For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.

National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.

Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.

Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.

Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.

On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.

The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.

On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.

Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes.  The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.

We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.


State
Class of 2027
(Most Likely)
Class of 2027
(Est. Range)
Class of 2026
(Actual)
Class of 2025
(Actual)
Class of 2024
(Actual)

Avg NMSFs
Alabama213210 - 216214212210250
Alaska214210 - 21621521420935
Arizona218215 - 220218217216398
Arkansas213210 - 216215213210143
California223220 - 2242242212212,115
Colorado218216 - 221219218216286
Connecticut222220 - 223223221221175
Delaware219218 - 22122021921944
Florida217216 - 220219217216999
Georgia219217 - 221220218217602
Hawaii218215 - 22021921721762
Idaho214211 - 21721521321196
Illinois220218 - 222222220219704
Indiana217214 - 219218217216313
Iowa213211 - 216214212210145
Kansas216213 - 219216215214144
Kentucky214211 - 217214213211201
Louisiana215212 - 218216214214222
Maine215212 - 21721721421355
Maryland223221 - 225224222221308
Massachusetts223221 - 225225223222318
Michigan219216 - 220220218217485
Minnesota218216 - 220219217216279
Mississippi213210 - 215213212209155
Missouri216213 - 218217215214289
Montana211208 - 21421320920947
Nebraska213210 - 216214211210105
Nevada214211 - 217214214211168
New Hampshire217214 - 21921921721560
New Jersey223222 - 225225223223451
New Mexico211208 - 214210211207104
New York221219 - 2232232202201,012
North Carolina219216 - 221220218217510
North Dakota210207 - 21221021020730
Ohio218215 - 220219217216538
Oklahoma212208 - 214212211208204
Oregon218215 - 220219216216188
Pennsylvania220217 - 222221219219596
Rhode Island217214 - 22021921721547
South Carolina214210 - 217215214209236
South Dakota210207 - 21321120820942
Tennessee218215 - 219219217217319
Texas221218 - 2222222192191,623
Utah212210 - 216213211209196
Vermont215211 - 21721621521228
Virginia222220 - 224224222219437
Washington222220 - 224224222220348
West Virginia209207 - 21221020920764
Wisconsin214213 - 217215214213292
Wyoming209207 - 21221020920724
District of Columbia223222 - 22522522322336
Territories209207 - 21121020820739
Outside US223222 - 22522522322386
Commended209207 - 210210208207

How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.

We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.

Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.

No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.

Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.

Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.

When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.

Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.

  • Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
  • Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
  • Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
  • The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
  • Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?

Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.

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Art Sawyer

Art graduated magna cum laude from Harvard University, where he was the top-ranked liberal arts student in his class. Art pioneered the one-on-one approach to test prep in California in 1989 and co-founded Compass Education Group in 2004 in order to bring the best ideas and tutors into students' homes and computers. Although he has attained perfect scores on all flavors of the SAT and ACT, he is routinely beaten in backgammon.

5,044 Comments

  • Ana says:

    Hello Mr. Sawyer,
    My score was 221 in CA. What made you change your most likely from 221 to 222 as the cutoff?
    Thank you.

  • David says:

    Hi Art,
    For Minnesota, is your cutoff prediction still 219? Any update?
    Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      David,
      I’ve updated my Most Likely to 218. We’re probably going to see it fall in the 217-219 range.

  • Shreya says:

    Hi,
    I got a 214 from WI. What would be my chances of getting selected? I see that the last year’s cutoff for WI was 214, but how often does it fluctuate?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Shreya,
      Even in years where the Commended cutoff is unchanged (as in this year), about half of the state cutoffs go up or down. You only need to worry about it going up, of course. I’d say your odds are good (70-80%?), but it’s tight enough that you’ll want to keep your fingers crossed come late August.

  • Anonymous says:

    Hi Art,
    In ID would a 215 PSAT score qualify for SF, and if so, would a 1480 SAT be high enough? Do they ever look at ACT scores (score of 34) or is it only the SAT?
    Thanks!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Anon,
      A 215 will likely qualify as Semifinalist in Idaho this year. As a confirming score for the Finalist selection, NMSC makes a Selection Index from your SAT or ACT score (the procedure for the ACT gets complicated) as detailed here. The cutoff is usually set at the Commended level, so your 1480 should produce a high enough score no matter the ERW/M split.

  • Alex says:

    Is there any benefit to getting a 214 in California? CLass of 2023 and not sure if I should be looking out for anything.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Alex,
      It’s an achievement that will reward you with a Commended Student honor. While most scholarships are associated with Finalist status, you can list your Commended status on your college applications.

  • Eric says:

    Hi Art,
    I’m from Illinois and my Selection Index is 219, the same as the “Most Likely” cutoff. Given that the cutoff for Commendation is lower than usual this year, what do you think my chances of becoming a Semifinalist are?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Eric,
      My Most Likely estimate takes into account the weak year (there is also a good argument for 218). The good news is that Illinois has never gone above 219 in “low” years. The caveat is that until Illinois switched to the P/SAT as the state-sponsored exam, its cutoffs were lower, so the historical record means a bit less. I’d say that your chances are 70-80%.

  • Barbie says:

    Hi Art,

    2 questions:
    1. If a student takes the PSAT NMSQT as a homeschooler in junior year, and then they decide to enroll full-time in public school for their senior year, if their PSAT score is high enough to become a NMSF, are they treated as a homeschooler within the process to move to Finalist since they were a homeschooler when they actually took the test?
    Or, would they be treated as a public school student since that is what they will be when the score shows up in September?
    Asking because who writes the Student’s Recommendation Letter will be determined by this. The public school principal or someone at the school is supposed to write the Recommendation Letter for full-time public students. Homeschool students handle the Recommendation Letter by choosing someone who knows them well.

    Different Student:
    2. If a student takes an AP Test and knows they did very poorly on it, likely scoring a “1”, and this student’s PSAT score has a very good chance of qualifying them as a National Merit Semifinalist, should they cancel this AP score before it comes in? The score is not the student’s fault. The instructor did not cover 1/2 of the coursework. The classroom is chaotic every single day. The student studied a lot outside the classroom but is almost certain their score will be extremely low. It’s likely the entire class scored a “1”.
    All other test scores are reported on the transcript, which makes us think that AP scores will also be reported there. The student does not want this score considered as part of the National Merit Finalist Application or for it to be seen by any university admissions or scholarship personnel, when the time comes.
    The student is wondering if it is worse to score a “1” or if it would be seen as worse to remove it and not report it altogether. They know that earning a “C” on a grade card can make a student ineligible for National Merit Finalist, and it seems like scoring a “1” on an AP test would be viewed as just as bad or even worse. Or is there a way to give a statement regarding the score? This student usually scores in the top 99% of all test takers. First time for this. (The student has over 100% in the class as a grade.)

    Thank you.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Barbie,
      1) I haven’t encountered this situation. Transfers — homeschoolers or otherwise — are not uncommon, so I’m sure that NMSC has set guidelines about whether the junior or senior year status applies. I recommend contacting them directly.

      2) AP scores are not used by National Merit. When you say that the test scores are reported on the “transcript,” I’m not sure if you mean the school’s transcript or the student’s College Board record. It’s considered bad form for schools to put scores directly on a student’s transcript, but some schools do it nonetheless. AP scores are sent separately from SAT scores, and a student has the option of withholding or canceling scores. Find out more about those options in College Board’s FAQ. There would be no reason to directly send AP scores to National Merit.

  • Wei says:

    Hi, Mr. Sawyer,
    Do you have an idea when the official NMSF names will be announced? Thank you!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Wei,
      Names have been sent to schools, but there is no generally agreed upon way of notifying students. Most students will receive word from their counseling department or principal between now and the second week of September.

  • Anonymous says:

    215 qualified in Kansas.

  • Alisa says:

    Does a lower Florida cutoff than expected signal that other states will also tend to the lower end of the range? Speaking as a 221 from CA.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Alisa,
      While one state doesn’t indicate a trend, it’s nice to see a big state such as Florida come in low.

  • J says:

    Hi Art. Do you know if CB generally sends all the letters for every state out around the same time or do they batch them by state or region? If the former, most schools should have the scores within a couple days, if the latter entire states many not have had letters sent yet, etc. Thanks.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      J,
      National Merit mails everything at the same time from its headquarters in Illinois, and yet there have been years where Illinois schools have been among the last to receive letters. The USPS gets the job done, but on its own inscrutable schedule.

  • Jen says:

    If the chart shows 43,985 students were in the high scorer range of 1400-1520…and the top 50,000 kids get commended or better…wouldn’t that mean even some kids under 1400 would get commended? My son got 1400 and a 206, which sounds like he’s one of the 43,985 high scorers but below the cutoff and won’t get commended.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Jen,
      National Merit doesn’t use the combined score (the 1400 – 1520). [We cite it in the article because it’s the score range that College Board releases.] Instead, NM uses the Selection Index, which puts twice as much weight on the Reading and Writing (ERW) score than on the Math score. Your son, I believe, scored a 660 ERW and 740 M to give him a 1400 combined score and a 206 SI (66 x 2 + 74). A student scoring 700 ERW and 700 M would have received an SI of 210 (70 x 2 + 70). There were enough students scoring lower than 1400 but with SIs above 206 that your son did not qualify. For example, a student scoring 750 ERW and 620 M would have a combined score of 1370 but an SI of 207.

  • B says:

    216 qualified in Alabama!

  • Priscilla says:

    216 Qualified in TN.

  • Kay Jay says:

    Apologies if this is obvious and I’m missing it. What is the “given Selection Index” referenced in the legend? (<= indicates that the cutoff is equal to or lower than the given Selection Index)
    I was thinking it was the "Most Likely" number in the table for 2023, but Alabama's confirmed cutoff is higher than Compass' estimated number, and Kansas' is lower.

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Alabama is not yet confirmed (AFAIK). The less than or equal means that we know the HIGHEST that the cutoff could be is less than or equal to 216. If someone qualifies at 214, then we would know the cutoff is <= 214. It's not until we hear from someone who has not qualified that we can say we know the cutoff for sure. [Or we hear the cutoff from a counselor.]

  • GC says:

    Thanks for all this information. It appears that you will use “=” to indicate that you can confirm what the state’s actual cutoff is, and that you will use “<=" or "=<" when you have anecdotal information regarding a state from a reader based on their child's actual score, but you are not able to confirm that state's cutoff lies. In the latter cases, the cutoff could still be quite a bit lower (or higher) than the score one student reported. Is that accurate?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      That’s right GC. We don’t know the exact cutoff until we hear from someone who did NOT qualify. Or we hear from a counselor who has confirmed the cutoff as received from National Merit.

  • Jennifer says:

    219 qualified in Texas. We homeschool and just got the letter in the mail.

  • Jennifer says:

    My daughter’s 214 qualified in Arkansas.

  • J says:

    Qualified as a 214 in AL!

  • Aarush says:

    A 217 qualified in Indiana

  • Vernon says:

    221 qualified in California

  • Prash says:

    My son has 220 in Texas and he hasn’t heard from his school yet. Who should he be contacted, if at all?

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Notifications have been mailed to school principals. It often takes time for schools to notify students, especially at the beginning of the school year. Congratulations to your son! I’m sure that he’ll eventually get the good news.

  • Aarush says:

    Missouri had a 215 qualify

  • Clemente says:

    Missouri <=215

  • Ryne says:

    Hi Art!
    First of all, I would like to thank you for your amazing work cataloging all of this, I have been looking at it for a while. I’m a Florida student who has just recently qualified with a 216!!! I am so excited because of the Benacquisto scholarship, but I have a question I hope you’d know the answer to. The eligibility requirements say you have to be a National Merit Scholar, which includes the National Merit awards, corporate-sponsored awards, and college-sponsored awards. I’m interested, though, how likely it is that I would get a college-sponsored award? let’s say, for example, my first choice was the University of Central Florida. Considering I don’t have any sort of disciplinary record or extenuating circumstances, would they have a reason to not grant me their college-sponsored scholarship? Would love to know your thoughts on this, thank you!

    • Art Sawyer says:

      Congratulations, Ryne! Yes, the Benacquisto is a great program for the participating Florida schools. In order to qualify as a Scholar, you first need to be named a Finalist. If you were to then list UCF as your first choice with National Merit, you would receive a scholarship. In order to become a finalist, you need a “confirming” SAT or ACT score (see our FAQ for more info), a completed application (you’ll receive this information from your high school), a recommendation from your school, and “a record of very high academic performance.” It’s that last one that National Merit leaves vague. About 15,000 of 16,000 NMSFs become Finalists.

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