Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi Art,
I have a 217 in Michigan. Any updates on the cutoff?
Thank you!
Not yet, but I expect a large set of updates Tuesday morning.
So if I have a score of 218 in Texas is there no chance of becoming a semifinalist?
I’m sorry, Louisa, but that is correct.
Hello Art,
Will IL cutoff be at 219 or 218?
Thanks,
GA
Illinois is confirmed at 219!
Hi Art, how did we find out the score cutoff for Georgia? I’m just curious because I have a 219 and am a little nervous. Thanks!
Georgia’s official cutoff is 218. I just posted the complete list.
Any word on Delaware 219?
Delaware’s cutoff was 218 this year. Congratulations!
Hi, Art. I scored a 216 in Ohio. You said in another comment that a 217 should qualify, so do you have any new information?
A 216 qualified. Congratulations! We just posted the full list of cutoffs.
215 Ohio not qualified?
Adrees,
That’s correct. 216 or higher qualified in Ohio.
Not helpful at all since we already know the highest cutoff is a 223, but a 224 qualified in Colorado…
Congratulations, A! We just posted all of the official cutoffs.
Hi Art,
I just wanted to say thank you again for all of your work on this. It really helped alleviate a lot stress knowing the cut-off early. It was also great theater watching the scores roll in!
Hello, Art. I got a 220 in Massachusetts. Is this sure to qualify for NMSF?
Thank you!
Alex,
As long as you are not a boarding school student, it will qualify.
Does a 215 in AZ qualify for national merit semifinalist?
Yes, the cutoff is 214.
Do you happen to know – Were the high schools notified of their school’s semi-finalists today?
Notifications were mailed to schools about 2 weeks ago, which is why information has been filtering in. There is no single procedure for schools to notify students, but many will wait until next week when the press embargo ends.
Thanks! Your articles have been super helpful!!!!
I qualified as a semifinalist (yay!) and also have a confirming sat score. Is there anything else I can really do now to improve my application before October? Thanks for the cutoff information, you saved my friends and I a good deal of stress!
Mavo,
Congratulations! And I’m glad I could help. You can start on your Finalist essay and stay out of trouble at school! That’s about all you need to worry about at the moment.
I called high school principal this afternoon to see if my son made the NMSF, he said that he didn’t get anything from college board or NMSC yet! Is it possible?
Yes, it’s possible. I recommend patience in these situations. NMSC won’t be helpful until after the press embargo ends next week, but my experience is that they will be very helpful after that date. And the mail will have likely shown up by that point.
I’m a student in Texas and my school notified me that I made it as a semifinalist.
Congratulations, Steven!
Hi Art
Thank you for your time and service. From MA 222 but have not received any information from school. It is a catholic school. would that matter?
MaryAnn,
No, it shouldn’t matter. Many schools will wait until the press embargo ends next week. I would give it until next Wednesday and then contact your counselor. As a distraction, you can start thinking about the Finalist essay. Unless they have changed it this year: “To help the reviewers get to know you, describe an experience you have had, a person who has influenced you, or an obstacle you have overcome. Explain why this is meaningful to you. Use your own words and limit your response to the space provided.”
Hi Art,
Can you explain the “press embargo”? Does the letter to schools specifically instruct them not to tell anyone until next Wednesday? And, if so, why are we hearing so many reports? According to your numbers, my son should be a finalist (222 in IL), but I’m getting a little anxious.
I don’t have the exact wording, but my recollection is that it asks schools not to “make the information public” until the announcement date. Many schools read this as only restricting public release — so avoiding things like school assembly announcements or a piece in the school newspaper. Some schools read the language as meaning that it should keep the list of students secret until the announcement date. I would feel a bit more sympathetic to NMSC’s desire for secrecy if the press release date actually saw all students being notified. Instead, NMSC only notifies schools and the press, so many students are left hanging. It’s well past time for NMSC to institute electronic notification. It’s worked for virtually every college in the country; it can work for the National Merit Scholarship Program.
Hi. Can you elaborate on “limit your response to the space provided”? Does that translate to a character or word count? Are you able to repurpose a Common App essay if it fits the prompt without editing it or is the “space provided shorter than 650 words? Thanks.
It is a combination character/space limit. Your Common App essay can likely be repurposed. Last year’s language: “We estimate your essay should be about 3,500 characters; however, you must preview your work to make sure that your essay fits in the space provided on the PDF. Any text that does not appear on the PDF will not be read or considered, even if it is within the character limit.”
Hi Art,
Thank you for all you do!! I am wondering about our Finalist application- how good do our essays, activities, etc need to be to get this status (if you have any idea)? Just worried about this along with college apps..
AFAIK, the essay and activities are not a part of qualifying as a Finalist. Those are used at the scholarship phase. The good news is that the application is not daunting. The essay prompt is general enough that you’re likely already writing something that works. The rest of the application takes about 15 minutes (assuming you’ve already gathered much of the basic info for your college apps). If you’ve got a confirming SAT/ACT score, then you’re set on that score. Grades matter, but that’s out of your control at this point.
HI. Thanks for all the great details. On the grades, which quarter or semester do they look through — end of junior year, Edna of senior Q1 or end of senior senior semester 1?
Given the timing, I think it could only be through junior year for Finalists. I can’t swear that NMSC doesn’t ask for an update from schools when considering scholarships.
About the first-choice college, do we put any college or have to pick one from the sponsor colleges? When would be the last date to change the college? Thanks!
The scholarship matching process begins March 1. You can change your choice after that date, but you risk being mismatched and losing the opportunity for a scholarship.
You don’t HAVE to choose from among sponsoring colleges, but that means you will only be available for NM and corporate-sponsored awards.
I’m confused about the “Confirming SAT Score”. Does that mean the semi-finalist’s SAT score should also be above the state cut-off for Semi-finalist cutoff? I also thought I read somewhere it only needed to be above the Commended Scholar cutoff? Thanks for your excellent updates, Art and Compass Group. You have been the best source of information about many test-related questions for many years!
The confirming score is set nationally; no, a student does not need to reach the state’s Semifinalist cutoff. NMSC doesn’t come right out and say that the confirming cutoff and the Commended cutoff are the same, but it is true or approximately true. Thank you!
Hello Art,
Is it possible CA cutoff is 221 but not 220?
Thank you.
The CA cutoff is 220. Period.
Nevada has the biggest drop since 2020–from 218 to 210. First, is 210 absolutely confirmed? Second, would it be attributed to low participation or “learning gaps”?
Absolutely confirmed. Small states can see large swings from relatively minor changes, especially when their cutoffs are on the low side because scores tend to be clumped together. Nevada saw 162 NMSFs this year as opposed to 114 last year and 112 the year before. That means the cutoff was probably not that far from being 209! It’s hard to know which of the factors played a role. The number of Semifinalists + Commended Students has remained fairly constant the last 3 years at 220-230. So for some reason there were as many students reaching Commended, but many more getting stuck at just a few points above Commended. I’d say scoring anomalies, learning gaps, and participation rate all could have played a role. Also, all it takes is a few powerhouse schools to drop out to shift things in Nevada. Bottom line: I don’t know.
Thanks for the reply! 162 is a big jump from 114. Does that mean NMSC was targeting Semifinalist count ~114, but there were too few >=211 and a whole lot of 210s?
Or that they are targeting around 130, perhaps, and that some years giver more or less because of how the distribution plays out. It means a lot of 210s. It’s harder to say about 211s because by the time they hit 162, they weren’t even going to take the 163rd.
Art
Since there are only 16000 NMSF each year, if Nevada had 162 with target 130, does that mean the increase was adjusted with other state targets? Did New Jersey meet its target number for NMSF or fewer to adjust variance with other states?
It usually works out to closer to 16,500 or so. I’m not entirely sure, but keep in mind that some schools are going to be a bit above target and some will be a bit below. So it’s not as simple as “this school got more so we need to take them away from other states.” New Jersey was on the low side, presumably because it had a large number of students at 222.
I made the TX cutoff with a 220 and have a confirming SAT score of 221 … any idea what GPA is required to make it to finalist?
No, NMSC does not release a GPA cutoff.
Hi Art,
Do you know how many NMSF’s California had this year?
I don’t know the exact number, but it is generally a bit over 2,000.
Question about the term “cutoff.” Does it mean you must score higher than the number, or equal to/higher than? Asking because my daughter scored 222 in Maryland. Haven’t heard from the school as of yet.
Equal to or higher. Your school may just be waiting.
Hi Art. While they don’t publish the exact GPA cut-off, would you consider 3.8X (unweighted) with no C’s a safe qualifying GPA?
J S,
I just don’t have the data. My recommendation would be to stay positive, assume that it’s sufficient, complete your Finalist app, and then get on with the important job of getting admitted to college!
Hi, is 214 in AZ absolutely confirmed? Thanks!
The cutoffs are correct.
If you had to send an alternate entry of a SAT score due to illness on the day of the PSAT, does that SAT score act also as the confirming SAT score or do you have to retake another SAT? Thank you.
I would check with NMSC on that. I think it came up last year, but I don’t remember where things fell. I want to say that it could serve as the confirming score.
What should we do at this point if our school says they haven’t received anything (not that they can’t won’t say, but that they say they actually haven’t gotten anything) but we met the criteria according to what you posted? Our kid has a 211 in Arkansas. I think our school has never had a National Merit Semi-Finalist (or even commended) before – we had to push them to even offer the PSAT to make this possible.
You can call NMSC and see if they are now able to confirm that you are a Semifinalist. If so, then you (or you and NMSC) will need to work with your school, track down your paperwork, and learn how to submit the Finalist application. You DO the application. But the school has to write the recommendation and SUBMIT the application.
Hi Art,
I know based on the cutoff scores that my son has qualified and, when I asked the principal, she broadly smiled and says she has a letter on her desk, but wants to wait until the pep rally at the end of September to make the announcement. While I think it is sweet that she wants to make a big deal out of it, I am anxious to see the actual confirmation so he can get started on his application. When I searched the National Merit Website, all I could see was a generic press release explaining National Merit. Where can I find a list of names? (Apparently the local media didn’t care about the press release.)
Anonmom,
There are no lists available beyond what NMSC shares with the press (NMSC does not share those lists with the public) and schools. If you are really concerned that your son is not a Semifinalist, you can try calling NMSC. They will usually confirm a name at this point. The essay prompt should be unchanged, so your son can already start preparing his essay. It’s nice to have the letter, but not having it should not pose much of an obstacle.