Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Art, My son’s high school PSAT score (entire school) was disqualified due to “confidential irregularities”. Fortunately he was able to use a SAT score to qualify with an alternative entry. He met the semifinalist cutoff. He was told by his school that to apply for the finalist program he needs to take another SAT and have a confirming school that meets the cut off (Texas is 219). I called the National Merit Corp and 2 different staff told me the cut off is 207 (the commanded score). And that since my son use the alternative entry to qualify, he doesn’t need to take another SAT. I emailed the school administrators but they insisted that my son needs to take another SAT meeting the 219 index. What is your thoughts on this?
Thank you Art!!
F,
If I have come across this in the past, the correct answer escapes me. [Congratulations to your son, BTW!] My inclination is to believe NMSC. Would defying the school create tension at a time that your son needs a recommendation? I don’t think that’s a real concern. Since a student can take a confirming test as late as December, I just wouldn’t make a big deal about whether or not your son is sticking with his 219. Yes, I might make a 3rd call to NMSC (unless your son is interested in trying to raise his score. National Merit will use his best result.).
Will a 33 Composite ACT score be enough to validate the 215 PSAT score?
Brenda,
The confirming score threshold is set nationally at an SAT Selection Index of 207. The SI is calculated from an SAT score in the same way that it is from a PSAT score. But what about an ACT score? A 33 Composite can represent a wide range of section scores that would produce different SIs. You can read more about the conversion in our National Merit FAQ (linked in the article). You need to use a concordance table to convert the sum of your English and Reading scores into the SAT sum of Reading and Writing. You then need to convert your ACT Math to SAT Math. Science is ignored. You’ll double the SAT ERW sum and add the SAT Math score to get the Selection Index.
The short answer is that a 33 will almost certainly be high enough.
Hi Art,
Thanks for all of your helpful info! For semi-finalists: How does one find the code number/name for National Merit Scholarship Corp. to send ACT scores? It isn’t available in the choices on ACT’s web page for ordering the sending of scores like all of the other colleges and orgs.
Julie,
It should be code 7984.
Any reason why my child would not yet have received their Commended letter from HS? 211 selection index. Waiting to add this to college Apps and can’t figure out why it hasn’t been provided yet. Should we contact National Merit at this point.
KW,
Commended letter are not mailed to high schools until Semifinalists have been announced. This means that schools may still be receiving the packets. It’s safe to assume that your student was Commended.
My daughter is a Semifinalist with a GPA of 4.0, but she is currently dual-enrolled in 200-level calculus and physics classes in which she is concerned that she might receive grades of B or C. We see that her school is instructed to “notify NMSC of any noticeable decline in your academic performance during the current year.” Her first-choice college offers full-tuition scholarships for Finalists, so she is considering withdrawing from these classes – despite loving them – if it means jeopardizing her chances of becoming a Finalist. Do schools always report senior-year grades to the NMSC or only if there has been a “noticeable decline?” Would receiving B’s or C’s in these two classes constitute “noticeable decline?” Would withdrawing from these classes constitute “noticeable decline?” Thank you for all the helpful information you share with this community.
Katie,
The circumstances are so specific and the implications so important, that I hesitate to give definitive advice. I’d normally hate to see National Merit drive course selection, but when a student’s first choice offers full-tuition scholarships, there is a lot riding on these decisions. My understanding is that schools are not obligated to send mid-year reports. If you are only worried about year end grades, the decisions have already been finalized by then. It’s hard to get accurate information in confidence in this situation. You may need to discuss the situation with your daughter’s college counselor. You could also heck anonymously with National Merit, but they may not be able to speak to the situation. Best of luck to your daughter! And I’m rooting for A’s in those courses.
Hi Art,
The selection index for ACT is not based off the composite score right? Or can it be? Also 35 individual tests but composite score 36 will qualify for the index I suppose. Students can update the college choice anytime before Mar 1 . Do the colleges listed for offering scholarships imply they offer full ride scholarships, Art ?
Thank you
MaryAnn
The selection index derived from the ACT is not based off the composite score. Instead, the ACT M is converted to SAT M and ACT Eng and Reading are converted to SAT ERW. ACT Science is not used at all. We have more information and links to the conversion tables in our FAQ.
Most colleges that participate in National Merit offer more limited scholarships of $2,500 or $2,500 per year. In fact, full-ride scholarships fall in a gray area. NMSC does not administer them. It’s up to the colleges to decide if they want to make additional scholarship opportunities available outside of the official NMSC program. You’ll need to research those on your own and contact them to see if they have any special deadlines or requirements.
Thank you so much
Good day Art. Thank you for all your service and help.
Had a quick question – We missed the osa deadline today and got an extension. This should not affect the finalist decisions I believe. Is that right? Thank you Ty
Ty,
No, it will not affect selection in the slightest.
Hi Art – Does the college major and career codes play a role in the selection by colleges that offer full-ride for the finalists. Is that information available somewhere.
I have never heard of the codes being used in that manner.
Thank you so much as always!
Can you confirm the “commended” cutoff you published of 207? I have a child who scored above that but has been told she did not receive “commended” status by her school. I’d like to find out where the disconnect is.
Hi Tim,
The Commended cutoff is confirmed at 207. It’s possible the school meant your daughter did not qualify as a Semifinalist.
Art, Thanks for all this information. Is there a listing from NMSC about which states are in which regions for the boarding school groupings (which use highest state in region for cutoff instead of state in which the school is)? Thanks!
Summer,
NMSC has a tendency to be circumspect about even the most straightforward of things. I don’t know of a place that it lists the boarding school groups. If you find one, please let me know!
Art,
Hello. Thank you for your great answers on all things PSAT. I have a student who was ill on PSAT day this October, 2022. She has already been approved to apply for National Merit via Alternate Entry. What sort of SAT score does she need to achieve for National Merit in Oklahoma? Since the two tests are scored differently, how can she know what her target score should be relative to the PSAT? For example, if the cutoff is 211, does she need the equivalent (say a 1460) on the SAT? Say 760 on CR/W and 700 math? Just to throw around some numbers…And can she take the SAT multiple times to try to achieve this?
Thank you,
Andrea
Andrea,
I’m sorry that your daughter was ill. First, she is able to take the SAT multiple times for Alternate Entry. National Merit will use her best score but will not superscore.
Oklahoma’s cutoff has been 210 or 211 the last 3 years, but it has gone as high as 216. We don’t yet have data on the performance from this year’s exam.
Calculating the cutoff with SAT scores is the same as for PSAT scores, but we have to be careful about the upper limits. The most familiar scores are 200-800 (160-760 on the PSAT), but each section has a 10-40 (8-38) score. It’s those section scores that need to be used from the SAT. And because the PSAT scores do not go above 38, the SAT scores must be trimmed at 38. This is all getting confusing, so let me give a couple examples: (1) Your daughter gets 36 Reading, 35 Writing, and 39 Math (710 ERW 780 Math). On the PSAT, those section scores are summed and doubled to get the Selection Index. But the 39 is outside the PSAT range, so it needs to be trimmed. The Selection Index would be (36 + 35 + 38) * 2 = 218. (2) Your daughter scores 40, 31, and 37 (710 / 740). Her Selection Index would be (38 + 31 + 37) * 2 = 212.
Good luck!
Hello. I am a North Carolina Junior that took the October 2022 PSAT. I scored 1460(our school received our PSAT scores early on Naviance). Math – 37.5; Reading – 35; Writing – 36. I calculated my index score and it was 217, meaning I would have qualified for the class of 2023. However, I am class of 2024. Based on trends for North Carolina, how likely is it that I will qualify as a semifinalist?
Shivsai,
We have recently had 4 years that I consider “low years,” where Commended levels fell at 209 or lower. In two of those low years North Carolina’s cutoffs were 218. In two of those years North Carolina’s cutoffs were 217. There is just not enough to go on. You probably have a 50% chance and will need to wait until September to get the final answer.
Can’t believe I’m back here. DS22 was a NMF with a 221 from NY. We felt it was enough but thought perhaps a 222 might pop up, and so we waited and I checked this site A LOT. DS24 just got a 220 and I feel like we’re in a touch worse of a boat. It SHOULD be enough, particularly given decreasing scores in general, but we’ll have to wait for confirmation, and more checking of this site. My question is – DS24’s school offered the PSAT NMSQT on the alternate date (not the make up date, the alternative date 10/25/22). I was a little upset about that, thinking the curve might be different – that perhaps the group of students taking the alternative date is different somehow from the main date. Do you have any thoughts on this? The ship has obviously sailed for my son, but I’d like to go to our District and request that they offer the first date going forward. At the very least, it allows for a make up date.
Welcome back, Toby. PSATs (and SATs) are scaled in advance based on the results of research on prior administrations. That equating process is meant to ensure that tests are equivalent. As I said in my article, it doesn’t always work out that way. But I don’t have any evidence that the alternate dates are more likely to be wonky than the primary administration.
As you say, 220 should be enough in a year of low scores (we’ll know more in April with the Commended level), but it is going to be a wait to September. You know where to find me!
Hello from Florida,
My son’s score just came out today (1370) (detailed score report not yet available). What is the likely hood that he will be a commended scholar? Also, he just recently took the SAT and scored a 1440. Can he use that instead to qualify for National Merit? Thank you.
Tammy,
Students who take the PSAT cannot use an SAT score for National Merit entry. You may need to wait another day to get the individual ERW and Math scores that make up the 1370. He may be on the cusp depending on how those scores shake out. Double the ERW, add the Math, and drop a zero. For example, a 680 ERW and 690 M gives an SI of 68×2 + 69 = 205. I estimate that the Commended level will fall between 206 and 209.
Where do you get the Class of 2024 info on # of students and that 3% have 1400 or better? I’ve been looking through old data sets for comparisons from year to year but do not see this new info. Also, is there anyway to extrapolate what it means when your PSAT score goes up but selection index goes down as far as predicting cutoffs?
Brad,
That information is proprietary.
I am assuming that you are referring to your PSAT score going up from Sophomore year. If so, nothing can be extracted from that. The Selection Index is simply a constant formula that does not change based on the performance of others. If your SI went down, it’s likely because your ERW score (which is doubled) went down but your Math score went up.
Love your site and info. How accurate have your predictions been of the # of students, % scoring above 1400, and state-by-state cutoffs? Granted, Covid has thrown things off a bit.
Brad,
I can’t go into methods and sources too much. State-by-state cutoffs are estimates based on PSAT performance numbers nationally and historical performance. I expect 90-95% of state cutoffs to fall within the listed ranges unless we see a crazy year.
Hi Art,
Are the cutoff estimations for semifinalists published above based on the latest PSAT/NMSQT (class 2024)? My daughter just got his index score (217, Colorado), and I am wondering if she has a chance to qualify for semifinalist or when we are going to know for sure.
Claudia,
NMSC does not announce Semifinalists until September 2023. The current estimates provided by Compass are based on the historical numbers and the research Compass has done.
My son appeared for PSAT/NMSQT in Nov 22 and his NMSQT index is 221. We are in Buffalo NY. How likely he would be among the semi finalists?
Sreyasee,
We haven’t seen a year when New York has gone over 221, so I’d say that he has an excellent chance of qualifying.
Hi Art, thanks for your service. We are in Delaware and my daughter got 220. Will she qualify for 2024? Thanks for your help
Josh,
Delaware is a competitive state, but in the 4 “low years” I have identified as similar to this year, Delaware did not go above 220 and went as low as 218. Delaware has had a 221 in the past, but it came in a year when scores were higher across the board. Your daughter has a very good chance.
My daughter received 221 in NJ. What are her chances to qualify for semi finalist? Thanks 🙏
Sweetfairy,
We have to go back to the class of 2013 to find the last time a 221 qualified as NMSF in New Jersey, which almost always has the highest cutoffs in the country.
Does a 218 for Oregon qualify for semifinalist? Also, what was the cutoff for the semifinalist for Oregon last year? Was it 216 for commended or semifinalist last year?
Dave,
The Semifinalist cutoff last year was 216. The Commended cutoff is a national figure and was 207.
Hi Art! My daughter (class of 2024) got her score today and did well, but in a tough state to make the cutoff. (She’ll likely end up as commended.) Is there really no way to know before September what the cutoffs will be? I can’t believe they make the students wait almost a year– shouldn’t it be easy for them to determine top 99th percentile in each state right away? Or at least an overall idea of how the scores look so we know if the cutoffs are likely to be lower than predicted this year? Thanks for your insights.
Jen,
There really is no way — with one exception. The Commended cutoff usually leaks in April, because National Merit needs to contact schools to confirm eligibility for all honorees. NMSF cutoffs have never come out before late August. Once the Commended cutoff is confirmed, we can at least be confident that we are in a “low year.” We might see 10-15 states with lower cutoffs than last year, but only in the smallest would we expect to see a wide swing.
It’s very frustrating. Despite the changes in testing and technology, NMSC uses the same calendar it used 60 years ago. There are some reasons. Not all PSAT takers are eligible. Also, NMSC allows students who missed the PSAT to enter via Alternate Entry with SAT scores. And the organization is busy right now with Finalist decisions and then scholarship matching. It finally gets around to the class of 2024 in April. By the time it confirms eligibility, it is summer, and NMSC always works through the schools. And that’s how we end up in September!
Hello Art,
I live in Michigan and got 218 index. What are my chances?
Jeff,
In each of the 4 years where we have seen a Commended cutoff under 210, Michigan has come in at 2018 or less. However, it did have a run of 219s in the classes of 2018 – 2020. I think we are in another low year, so I like your chances. We can’t say that it is a sure thing, however.
My daughter received 218 in the state of Oregon. What are her chances to qualify for semi finalist? She appeared for PSAT Oct 15, 2022 and she is in class of 2024. Thank you!
I tried to post three messages before but they keep getting deleted. I think I accidentally entered wrong email address first two times. Hopefully someone can look at this fourth message and respond to it.
Ron,
In order to reduce spam, our comments are moderated. We usually don’t approve posts until we have an answer ready. Here is yours! Your daughter is in good shape with her 218, but Semifinalist is by no means assured. Oregon has gone as high as 221 and as low as 216. The class of 2021 saw a 220 cutoff, but that was driven by the large number of test cancelations and the high number of Alternate Entry candidates. I think this year will look more similar to last year. Better than even odds, but not as high as 90%.
What are the chances for someone with 221 in California?
CG,
I like your chances. There is an outside possibility that CA would move to 222, but I think it’s more likely to be at 220 or 221. Still, it’s close enough that you’ll really need to wait until announcements in September.
Hi Art,
My son got 222 in CA from PSAT October 2022. What are his chances to qualify for semi finalist for 2024.
Thanks for your help.
Madhavi,
He is highly likely to qualify as a Semifinalist. Realistically, I don’t see CA going above 222 without some 100-year flood event.
Thanks for answering the questions. This is awesome resource.