Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hello, Mr. Sawyer! My daughter received a 225 as her selection index score in TX. I realize she’ll probably make it to the Semifinals; how are finals determined? Is the selection index score also used?
Congratulations to your daughter, Alexandrai! No, the Selection Index is not part of the selection process for Finalist. Keep in mind that 15,000 of the 16,000 Semifinalists become Finalists, so the odds are in her favor. NMSC looks at grades, school recommendation, and essay. Your daughter also needs a confirming score on the SAT or ACT. That shouldn’t be difficult, because she just needs to score at the equivalent of the Commended mark. As for grades, NMSC does not provide guidance other than a student needing “a consistently very high academic record.”
If live in NY but go to school in NJ, what state index is relevant for you? My son has an index of 228 (perfect score) so not asking for him but for one of his friends.
Sue,
National Merit goes by school rather than home state. Unfortunately, that means the NJ cutoff will apply.
Congratulations to your son!
Hi Art,
Thank you so much for all the helpful information that you provide. My son has a 218 selection index score in Colorado. What percentage chance would you say he has of being named an NMSF? When is the next time that you expect to have additional information to provide? Perhaps a blog post when the commended cutoff is known? If so, when would that be? Would that information be useful in better predicting if cutoff scores for NMSF will generally stay the same as last year, decrease, or increase? September can’t come soon enough!
Mel,
Now is the time when I expect additional information! I’m hearing that my estimate of 207 for the Commended cutoff is correct. [I’d still like further confirmation.] That’s good news for your son. Each year that the Commended cutoff has been below 210, we’ve seen a Colorado Semifinalist cutoff of 218 or 217. I’d caution that surprises do happen. I’d now rank your son’s chances as 80%+.
Does confirming score on SAT mean that it has to be just as good as PSAT – e.g. score was 1450 PSAT and 1410 on SAT. Should SAT be retaken? Student is also already a national recognition award winner. Does that impact chances for finalist?
Marc,
No, it does not need to be as good as the PSAT. Create a Selection Index from the SAT score. That SAT SI needs to be at least as high as the Commended cutoff. Your student can probably do better on the SAT, but a 1410 — depending on the splits — is likely high enough to serve as a confirming score.
I’m not aware of other recognition awards being used for Finalist consideration.
This is a very useful post.
Where did you decide Wisconsin would be a 214? I got a 213 and am from Wisconsin and am PRAYING that it doesn’t move. Based on the data shown, it looks like the data was very similar to last year. Do you have data for each state individually that hints a rise in the Wisconsin cutoff? Just curious what my chances are of qualifying or if I am really gonna miss it by 1.
Brayden,
There is a good argument for it to be 213. As you say, it was 213 last year and also for the class of 2021. It did hit 214 with the class of 2022 and 215 for the class of 2017 (I look at the latter because it is one of the years with a sub-210 Commended cutoff). Those factors made me go with 214. In a flat year for the Commended cutoff (which it now appears to be), we’d normally expect to see about two-thirds of states end up with the same or lower cutoffs. So you have a good chance with your 213. As with most of the scores in my estimated range, it’s really too close to call. We’ll be waiting until September.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
My son received a letter today stating that because his Selection Index score was above 207 he would find out in Sept if he’s either SF or Commended. You prediction of 207 was right on! Can we really know anything further in TX? I’m still holding out hope that it will be 218 for SF in TX this year. Thanks for your help!
Alisha,
Thank you for the update! Is your son homeschooled or did he receive the letter from his school?
Nothing further on TX. The 207 Commended keeps a 218 in play.
Mr. Sawyer, Thank you for your response!
He is considered homeschooled because he attends an online private school. We received the letter in the mail directly from NM. Fingers crossed in TX!
Thank you, Alisha! I’ve received additional confirmations, so we definitely know the Commended cutoff is 207.
We’re in the same boat with a 218 in Texas, hoping your estimated for Texas is high by 1 point.
Yes, I’m always happy to be wrong when the cutoff comes in lower than expected. Good luck!
Hello Art, rumor has it the commended cutoff is 207 for the class of 2024 based on letters to homeschool parents. Given 207 was your initial estimate, does this change your thoughts at all on state-specific cutoff ranges? Thanks!
Robert,
Yes, I heard the same thing from a parent here. Since the 207 came in as estimated, it doesn’t change my Most Likely estimates. What it does do is make some of the high estimates in the range less likely. If we just start alphabetically, for instance, a 215 in Alabama is likely off the table. If the Commended score had been an upside surprise, that wouldn’t be true.
Hello, Mr. Sawyer! My daughter received a 1480 as her score and 220 as her selection index score in Maryland, just below the predicted 222. Historically, how accurate have you been in your predictions?
Jessica,
The “Most Likely” estimates are so-so, and I’ve tried to show why “most likely” estimates are going to be so-so, at best. I encourage folks to look at the possible range of scores. Let’s say that there is a 40% chance of the “most likely” being right. That’s not all that good. But it’s better than the 20% chance that the cutoff comes in 1 point lower or the 20% chance that it comes in 1 point higher. And maybe there is a 10% chance of a 2 point shift lower and 10% higher. Those are general numbers, because some states move more than others. Large states tend to see smaller changes and the highest scoring states tend to see smaller changes.
Maryland is definitely not a large state, but it is a high-scoring one. Over the last decade it has joined a group of states with the highest or second highest cutoffs in the country. I mention decade, because it was the class of 2013 when Maryland last saw a 220 cutoff.
I included 220 in my range of possible cutoffs because it is possible. I just have to be honest that it is less likely than a cutoff of 222.
Thank you so much for your honesty and response!
Hi Mr. Sawyer, I’m a junior out here in Michigan. I was able to get a 220 selection index on the PSAT, and, seeing that your commended prediction was spot, can a 221 cutoff be ruled out in Michigan?
Daniel,
I certainly think so. We’re unlikely to see new highs being set this year, and a 3-point jump for a large state like Michigan is not in the cards. Congratulations!
Hello, Mr. Sawyer!
My daughter received 218 in New Jersey and it seems she is not qualified for NMS Semifinals. Does the school send a letter for Commended Scholar?
Subbu,
Yes, the school should distribute Commended letters around mid- to late-September. They are provided after the announcement of Semifinalists.
Art,
Do you have any new information on Louisiana? My daughter got a 213 index and we are really hoping that it stays at 213! Thanks.
Hailey,
Nothing new specific to Louisiana. We know that the Commended level didn’t change nationally, so that’s good news.
Hi, I got a 214 in Tennessee. What are the chances of getting semifinalist because Tennessee seems to be pretty consistent at 215?
Shawn,
Tennessee doesn’t have a recent record of going to 214. A one point drop is not out of the question, but I’d have to put the probability at around 10%.
Hi, Any anticipated changes to the Florida cut off for the 2024 year or you think it will be 216?
Eli,
With the unchanged Commended cutoff, I’m expecting little movement. A trusted source in Florida feels it could move to 215.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
What are the odds of a 216 in Ohio qualifying for semifinalist? Given that the commended cutoff is 207, does your prediction change?
A,
Sorry for the slow response! The 207 cutoff makes it more likely that the cutoff will come in at 215 or 216. There have been recent 217s and 218s, but I would peg the odds at about 75-80%.
My daughter’s counselor saw a list and she says it was national merit semifinalist, she said my daughter’s name was on it(with a 210 in Oklahoma). I’m thinking this was probably a commended list and it would be too soon to know about national merit semifinalist. What are your thoughts?
Kerry,
Sorry for the delayed response. You are right. The list counselors received in April is of students who will be Commended OR Semifinalist. A 210 is not out of the running in Oklahoma (the state has seen dramatic shifts), but you will need to wait until September to know.
Hi art,
I am a student in TX. I got a 217 index score, it’s unlikely that I’ll make it to SF right? Thank you
Francisco,
Unfortunately, Texas’s cutoff has not moved below 218 in quite some time. You will, however, be named a Commended Student in September.
Hi Mr. Sawyer!
I received a 219 as my Index, and I live in Indiana. I am wondering when the letters for commended scholars usually come out. I haven’t received anything from my school yet. Also, with a 219, it looks like I will be a semifinalist, but I just wanted to get your input on how likely you think that is to happen.
Thank you so much for your help!
Lucy
Lucy,
Sorry for being slow to reply. Don’t worry, you are not missing out on anything. The Commended cutoff has been set, but no one is officially a Commended Student yet. NMSC will send Semifinalist letters to high schools in late August. Schools usually notify students in early September, which is also when we will start receiving information about the state cutoffs. Commended letters are sent out after Semifinalist notifications are made.
At 219, congratulations! You should be a lock as a Semifinalist. I don’t see Indiana’s cutoff moving to 220.
Mr. Sawyer,
Given the national cutoff, what do you think are the odds a 220 qualifies in NY for semifinalist status? Greater than 75%? Thanks for any feedback.
Max,
Now that we know that the Commended cutoff is staying at 207, the odds are probably even higher than 75%. We’ve only seen NY hit 221 in years with high Commended cutoffs. Strange things can happen, but I think 80-90% is a fair estimate.
Mr. Sawyer,
This is an incredible resource and thank you for your work. My son has a SI score of 218 in NC. He doesn’t know if 207 is the number or a range of 217-219 is more accurate. Do you have any information? Is he likely to receive some information from NM? I saw in a previous post you mentioned confirming SAT and ACT scores. If his PSAT score was 1470, his SAT score was 1570(perfect Math) and his ACT was 35(perfect Math ), do these scores fit the “confirming” score? Does the college the student is applying to in the Fall of 23 affect their chances of being a finalist?
Thank you for all your information
Theresa,
With a 218 your son is guaranteed to be at least a Commended Student. It’s quite likely (90%?) that his score will qualify him as a Semifinalist. I don’t think we’ll see the North Carolina cutoff jumping 2 points this year. He won’t hear directly from NM about any of this. Instead, NMSC sends Semifinalist information to high schools at the end of August. Most schools notify students in early to mid-September.
If he qualifies as a Semifinalist, what comes next? He’ll apply to be a Finalist. That’s where the confirming score comes in. Given his SAT and ACT scores, you don’t even need to worry about the mechanics. He is all set (he’ll just need to have an official score report sent to NMSC, so I guess that is the mechanics.). Finalist also need to have excellent grades and a school recommendation. Most Semifinalists do end up becoming Finalists.
His school choice does not impact his selection as a Finalist. It is only at the scholarship stage in spring of 2024 that his college choice matters. Some schools offer NM scholarships to all Finalists. Some offer a limited number of scholarships. And some offer none at all. In the latter case, he would need to earn one of the company and National Merit sponsored awards.
Hey Art,
I was in this chat a few months ago asking about Louisiana and my daughter who got a 213. Are there any new updates that you have? And is the predicted score still a 213? Crossing my fingers for her!
Hailey,
The only new development — as discussed in the post — is that we now know the Commended cutoff. Since it came in exactly as expected, it doesn’t change the estimates for the state cutoffs. [Well, that’s not entirely true. It lowers the chance of an extremely high bounce.] Unfortunately, your daughter is going to need to wait until September to know anything more.
Hello Mr. Sawyer,
This entire article is very informational and I’d like to thank you for putting it together. I have a 215 in Tennessee, and wanted to know what your estimate of my odds are for becoming a semifinalist.
Thank you.
Samuel,
Given the unchanged Commended cutoff, I expect at least 2/3rds of state cutoffs to stay the same or move lower. Tennessee has stayed at 215 the last two years, so I’d put your odds at 65-75%. Good luck!
…215 the last three years…
chance for 215 in Arizona?
Aymen,
Arizona’s recent past shows why it can be difficult to predict a cutoff. If we look at last year’s 214, things look good. In the preceding 7 years, though, Arizona’s cutoff was no lower than 218. I’d say that it is something of a toss-up at 215.
When does Michigan release its National Merit Semifinalists? My son received an index score of 219 and has not received a notification indicating that he was selected as one of semifinalists. How do they communicate? Thank you
Bill,
Not to worry. No one has been notified. NMSC will send notification letters to high schools in late August. Most schools don’t notify students until well into September. Your son is in an excellent position with a 219.
Mr. Sawyer,
Thank you for taking the time to provide this very helpful information. Any thoughts on the likelihood of a 218 qualifying as a semifinalist in Pennsylvania?
Kristen,
When I look at the 3 out of the last 6 years where the Commended cutoff has been below 210, the PA cutoff has gone no higher than 210, the cutoff has reached 219. The Commended cutoff is at 207, so the odds are not bad. There is always a chance that a state sees a bounce upward, but I thing a 218 has an 80% (?) chance of qualifying. Alas, not so certain that it doesn’t mean waiting until September to find out for sure.
That should have read “…no higher than 218. The cutoff has reached 219 in years where the Commended cutoff has been above 210.”
Hello, Mr. Sawyer.
I recieved a 219 Index score on the PSAT and live in NY. Could you estimate my chances of making it to Semi Finals?
Dave,
NY generally stays within a tight range. Over the last 8 years, the cutoff has stayed between 219 and 221. It has been 219 twice and 220 and 221 three times each. The good news is that we’re seeing another low year with the Commended cutoff, and NY was at 219 last year. Given all of those factors, I’d say your odds are better than even.