Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hello – My son got a PSAT of 210 but then got a SAT of 1570. It sounds like he will only get a commendation based on what I’m reading. I am in NJ. Is that correct?
Tracey,
That’s correct. NJ is the toughest state in the country. There are many students who would trade NMSF for a 1570 on the SAT. Congratulations!
Hey. I have a 219 in Texas. What are my chances?
Ketan,
I think your chances are right around 50/50 (arguably a bit better than that). The good news is that TX was at 219 last year. The less good news is that it has hit 220 even in years where the Commended cutoff has been low (under 210).
What are the odds for a 212 in Mississippi?
Jenn,
The last two years we have seen Commended cutoffs of 208 and 207. In one of those years Mississippi’s Semifinalist cutoff was 213 and in the other it was 210. That sort of sums up why I think it’s about 50/50.
If alternate SAT for NMSP was taken this June, would the student be included in the list for semifinalists that will come out this September? Score is above projected semifinalist cutoff and has been sent to NMSP, alternate entry form also submitted to NMSP.
Harold,
I’m not sure. Most alternate entry students are announced along with the rest of the Semifinalists, but that may simply be because most have sent scores for earlier test dates. Since NMSC allows scores to arrive as late as October, it clearly has some Semifinalists who are not notified until after the initial batch of announcements.
Hi Mr Sawyer,
I received a selection index score of 217. I live in Colorado. Given the Commended cut-off of 207, what do you think are my chances of making semifinalist? Better than 60%? Thank you!
Jonah,
I’d say somewhere between 60% and 75%. While things have been steady the last few years, a 1-point change upward can happen even in years where the Commended cutoff remains unchanged.
What are the chances I make it with 220 index score in Texas?
Caden,
I think they are strong (80%+). We’ve only seen TX hit 221 in years where the Commended cutoff was at least 212. But because Texas has hovered in the 219/220 range, I don’t think we can completely rule it out. Good luck!
If I have a 220 in Minnesota, what are my chances at getting National Merit Semifinalist
Cecile,
We’ve never seen a cutoff above 220 in MN, and there is no reason to think we will this year. Congratulations!
Hi, what is the likelihood of qualifying as a semifinalist with a 217 selection index in Florida for the class of 2024?
Emma,
I think the chances are quite good (80%+?). It’s unlikely that we’ll see many (or any) large states see 2-point increases this year.
Hello Mr. Sawyer!
I have scored a 218 Selection Index Score in Ohio through the Alternate Entry Form from NMSC. I turned in this form and SAT score in the beginning of July. Is the “early enough” for me to know whether or not I qualified for National Merit in September?
Harsha,
You’d need to direct this question to NMSC. I’m not sure what their deadlines are for announcements when it comes to Alternate Entry. If a 218 qualifies in Ohio, you will qualify as a Semifinalist. Whether your name is announced or not in September, I’m not sure.
Hello Mr. Sawyer!
Thank you for the information! I asked NMSC and they told me that I will know whether I qualified in September along with the other qualifiers. What do you believe are my chances to qualify as a Semifinalist with a 218 in Ohio?
Great! Thank you for sharing the information. You are in an excellent position with a 218. We’ve only seen Ohio’s cutoff hit 219 in years where the Commended cutoff was 4-5 points higher than it is this year. I’d put your odds above 90%.
Hello,
Last year Illinois index score was 219 and What are the chances I make it with 219 this year? Thank you!
Grace,
I expect cutoffs to be fairly stable this year, meaning that two-thirds will see no change or a decline. The Illinois cutoff has only gone above 219 in years where the Commended cutoff has been over 210. I’d put the odds of a 219 qualifying at 75-80%.
chances with a 224 in new york?
S,
A 224 will qualify as a Semifinalist in every state. Congratulations!
Hi! My index was 221 and I live in VA. What would you estimate my chances to be? Thanks!
Austin,
As you probably know, Virginia usually has one of the highest cutoffs in the country. The good news is that the cutoff has been fairly stable. It has only moved in the 220 – 222 range in the last 10 years. I’d put the odds of a 221 qualifying at about 80% or better.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
What are the odds of a SI of 220 in Massachusetts qualifying for semifinalist? Given that the commended cutoff is 207, does your prediction change?
Thank you so much !
MA-Mom,
The Commended cutoff came in exactly as expected, so there has been no change to the predictions. I expect two-thirds of states will see no change or decreases. That’s probably a fair estimate for the chance of MA remaining at 220. Unfortunately, Massachusetts has a history of cutoffs above 220 even in “down” years.
My son received an index of 218 in the state of Iowa. What are your thoughts of him being a semi-finalist in September? If he becomes a semifinalist I had read that he would have to possibly take the SAT. Is that true? He did take the ACT and got a 35. Would that be enough?
Kellie,
Congratulations to your son! He will qualify as a Semifinalist. Several years ago NMSC began accepting ACT scores as “confirming” scores for the Finalist stage. The calculation gets a little tricky because of how NMSC ignores Science and combines English and Reading, but it won’t matter in your son’s case. A 35 will qualify. More information here: https://www.compassprep.com/psat-national-merit-faq/
Hi Art,
Do you have an article describe how finalists are selected from semi-finalist?
Jason,
I talk about it a bit here: https://www.compassprep.com/psat-national-merit-faq/
I’ve described it as a mini-college application process. Your SAT/ACT score will matter, but only to the extent that it fulfills the confirming score minimums. GPA (more accurately, your transcript) matters, but NMSC doesn’t provide a hard cutoff. Your essay and recommendation are also used in the process. Keep in mind that most (15,000 out of 16,000) Semifinalists become Finalists.
We live abroad and my child got a 216 Selection Index, and scored a 1590 on the subsequent SAT. Does it mean that she will not progress to the Semi Finalist List?
Baba,
Only the PSAT is used to determine Semifinalist status. For U.S. students living abroad, the cutoff is set to the highest state cutoff. Unfortunately, that means the cutoff this year will fall in the 221-223 range.
Hello Mr. Sawyer! I Received a 212 as my selection score in KY, what are my chances of becoming a semifinalist?
Garret,
Kentucky illustrates why it is difficult to pinpoint an exact cutoff score. The good news is that the state’s cutoff has remained at 212 that last 2 years. But it has moved as high as 218 as recently as the class of 2019. I still think your chances are at least 50/50.
How high does an ACT score need to be to be within the proper Selection Index scoring? My child had a 33 with Math being only 30, Reading 36, and English 35 . Will that suffice? Or should we plan on a retest?
Thanks!
Wendi,
Your student’s scores are high enough. The confirming score to qualify as a Finalist is generally set at the Commended score (207). In order to calculate the SI with an ACT score, you have to get the concordant score for the Math (30 -> 700) and for the combined English and Reading (71 -> 770). When calculating the SI, the highest a score can be is 760. ERW gets twice the weight of Math. So your student has a 222 SI (76 x 2 + 70).
https://www.compassprep.com/psat-national-merit-faq/
Hi,
I am a rising senior who has a 222 index score, and I live in Maryland. What are my chances for making the cutoff?
Jesse,
I think the most likely case is that Maryland will remain at 222. And I’d say that there is a greater chance of 221 than 223. So I’d put the odds at around 70%.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
I received a selection index of 219 in Oregon. What would you say are my chances of making senifinalist? In the article, it seems like you’re implying that an increase of 4 in Oregon would be somewhat unlikely. Thanks!
Andy,
This is an example of why trying to predict cutoffs can be maddening. You are right that 4-point increases are unusual. But so are 4-point drops, and that’s exactly what we saw last year in Oregon! Overall, I like your chances with a 219. I attribute the 220 cutoff in the class of 2022 to the high proportion of alternative entrants during the COVID cancellations. The only other times that Oregon’s cutoff has gone above 219 were when we saw high scores nationally. I think your odds are at least 80-90%.
Hello Mr. Sawyer!
Thanks for the helpful information!
What do you think the chances of a 219 getting into semifinalist in Texas is this year? I know that you were saying 50/50 earlier, but wanted to understand the probability between the cutoff being 219 or 220 and what it depends on. Thanks!
Antony,
The cutoff is determined by hitting — as closely as possible — the target number of Texas Semifinalists. For example, let’s say that NMSC has calculated that Texas’ allocation of Semifinalists is 1,550. If 1,400 students scored 220 and higher and 1,650 scored 219 and higher, then the cutoff would be 219. But we don’t know either of the critical variables — the exact target or the exact distribution of scores. Even small changes in one or the other can move a cutoff by a point. In the last 9 years, we have had 6 with Commended cutoffs below 210. In 3 of those years, Texas’ cutoff was 220. In the 3 other years, the cutoff was 219. We simply don’t know enough to say much more than 50/50.
Hello Mr. Sawyer,
When do letter go out to schools notifying them about their students that qualify as National Merit Semifinalist? After they are notified, is it up to the school as to when they notify the students? Thank you!
The letter likely go out this week, but I find that schools rarely do anything with them until after Labor Day. It’s possible that we’ll hear from some home schoolers before then. Many schools will wait until the press release that I believe will be on 9/13/ There are always a few schools that wait until after that, but we should know cutoffs by then.
Mr. Sawyer,
My student took the PSAT in Nevada and the Selection Index is 222. I imagine this puts them in a really good spot. Over the summer, however, we had to move from Nevada to New Mexico. Do you have any suggestions on how not to get notifications and information lost in the shuffle of not only moving schools but also moving states? Thank you so much!
ARM,
Yes, your student will qualify as a Semifinalist. Congratulations! Moves are not uncommon, so NMSC will be able to handle this. It does not confirm status until the official September announcement date (likely the 13th). You might try contacting your student’s Nevada school in the week before that announcement. They should have received letter by then, but some schools wait to distribute them. If you are having no luck, I would call NMSC after the 13th. Your daughter will be a Nevada Semifinalist, as National Merit follows the school where a student took the PSAT. You’ll want to track the process to make sure your daughter’s Finalist application gets sent to NMSC. But as I said, NMSC is well-practiced in this.
This has certainly put me at ease. I appreciate your prompt response. Thank you 🙂
Hello Mr. Sawyer:
I am new to the this whole process. My child has a 215 index in IL. Will that qualify for anything? Also a 1530 on the SAT, current senior.
Nikki,
Your daughter will be a Commended Student and should receive notification from her school in late September or early October. Her PSAT score is not quite high enough to qualify as a Semifinalist in Illinois.
My child had a 216 in Florida. What are the chances Florida stays at 216? Better than 50/50?
Abi,
I would have said 50/50, but my colleague in Florida knows more about the state than I do, and she is estimating 215. So if you listen to her, a 216 would probably have a 75% chance.