Record High National Merit Scores Announced
Every year, the National Merit Scholarship Program honors approximately 17,000 students as National Merit Semifinalists based on junior year PSAT scores. Semifinalists can continue in the competition to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. Current Semifinalists and future participants may want to read Compass’s National Merit Scholarship Program Explained for more information on the steps in the program. An additional 40,000 students are honored as Commended Students for having scores in the top 3% of all test takers. The recently confirmed cutoffs reveal that the Class of 2026 had the highest Semifinalist scores ever on the PSAT. Of the 12 largest states, 8 set new records and the other 4 tied their highest historical marks. Students in Massachusetts and New Jersey (225) would have needed to score at least a near-perfect 750 on the Reading & Writing (RW) and combine it with a 750 or 760 on Math.
The large jump points to a problem
The nearly universal increase in Selection Index cutoffs is most likely attributable to a flaw in scaling or test construction that produced higher scores on both Reading & Writing and Math. Since these sorts of scoring changes can also occur on the SAT, this post explores the implications for National Merit and college admission testing.
Scaling error best explains:
- Why there were changes across the entire score range
- Why there was a change in almost all states
- Why new records were reached in so many states, particularly the largest states
It’s the sort of shift we have seen before, but there are some added twists this time.
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. This means that students across the country face varying qualifying scores for Semifinalist status (the Commended level is set nationally). The cutoffs for the Class of 2026 range from 210 in New Mexico, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Wyoming to 225 in New Jersey and Massachusetts. If California is allocated 2,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. This year, California’s 224 included 2,172 students. A cutoff of 225 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 223 would have gone well over the allocation.
Below are this year’s cutoffs compared to those from prior years. The Class of 2026 figures are confirmed.
| State | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Change | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Semifinalists | Commended |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 214 | 2 | 212 | 210 | 228 | 141 |
| Alaska | 215 | 1 | 214 | 209 | 31 | 24 |
| Arizona | 218 | 1 | 217 | 216 | 409 | 557 |
| Arkansas | 215 | 2 | 213 | 210 | 141 | 106 |
| California | 224 | 3 | 221 | 221 | 2172 | 6840 |
| Colorado | 219 | 1 | 218 | 216 | 287 | 579 |
| Connecticut | 223 | 2 | 221 | 221 | 193 | 709 |
| Delaware | 220 | 1 | 219 | 219 | 47 | 84 |
| Florida | 219 | 2 | 217 | 216 | 1008 | 1824 |
| Georgia | 220 | 2 | 218 | 217 | 620 | 1243 |
| Hawaii | 219 | 2 | 217 | 217 | 60 | 124 |
| Idaho | 215 | 2 | 213 | 211 | 90 | 76 |
| Illinois | 222 | 2 | 220 | 219 | 748 | 1888 |
| Indiana | 218 | 1 | 217 | 216 | 333 | 531 |
| Iowa | 214 | 2 | 212 | 210 | 138 | 77 |
| Kansas | 216 | 1 | 215 | 214 | 136 | 113 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 1 | 213 | 211 | 200 | 121 |
| Louisiana | 216 | 2 | 214 | 214 | 220 | 219 |
| Maine | 217 | 3 | 214 | 213 | 57 | 63 |
| Maryland | 224 | 2 | 222 | 221 | 348 | 1290 |
| Massachusetts | 225 | 2 | 223 | 222 | 282 | 1754 |
| Michigan | 220 | 2 | 218 | 217 | 470 | 965 |
| Minnesota | 219 | 2 | 217 | 216 | 266 | 438 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 1 | 212 | 209 | 153 | 53 |
| Missouri | 217 | 2 | 215 | 214 | 281 | 326 |
| Montana | 213 | 4 | 209 | 209 | 48 | 8 |
| Nebraska | 214 | 3 | 211 | 210 | 109 | 63 |
| Nevada | 214 | 0 | 214 | 211 | 185 | 78 |
| New Hampshire | 219 | 2 | 217 | 215 | 51 | 99 |
| New Jersey | 225 | 2 | 223 | 223 | 511 | 3199 |
| New Mexico | 210 | -1 | 211 | 207 | 111 | 0 |
| New York | 223 | 3 | 220 | 220 | 992 | 3378 |
| North Carolina | 220 | 2 | 218 | 217 | 523 | 1151 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 0 | 210 | 207 | 26 | 0 |
| Ohio | 219 | 2 | 217 | 216 | 490 | 999 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 1 | 211 | 208 | 214 | 39 |
| Oregon | 219 | 3 | 216 | 216 | 188 | 318 |
| Pennsylvania | 221 | 2 | 219 | 219 | 612 | 1511 |
| Rhode Island | 219 | 2 | 217 | 215 | 50 | 96 |
| South Carolina | 215 | 1 | 214 | 209 | 225 | 197 |
| South Dakota | 211 | 3 | 208 | 209 | 46 | 6 |
| Tennessee | 219 | 2 | 217 | 217 | 306 | 521 |
| Texas | 222 | 3 | 219 | 219 | 1673 | 4653 |
| Utah | 213 | 2 | 211 | 209 | 199 | 68 |
| Vermont | 216 | 1 | 215 | 212 | 27 | 27 |
| Virginia | 224 | 2 | 222 | 219 | 489 | 1912 |
| Washington | 224 | 2 | 222 | 220 | 388 | 1295 |
| West Virginia | 210 | 1 | 209 | 207 | 66 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 215 | 1 | 214 | 213 | 287 | 216 |
| Wyoming | 210 | 1 | 209 | 207 | 20 | 0 |
| District of Columbia | 225 | 2 | 223 | 223 | 37 | 230 |
| Boarding Schools | 220-225 | 158 | 652 | |||
| U.S. Territories | 210 | 2 | 208 | 207 | 43 | 0 |
| Studying Abroad | 225 | 2 | 223 | 223 | 86 | 565 |
| Commended | 210 | 2 | 208 | 207 |
What the PSAT tells us about the SAT
Analyzing the PSAT/NMSQT is about more than just explaining National Merit cutoffs. The PSAT also provides a unique window into the SAT program. National Merit results offer comparable year-over-year data that are more granular than what College Board provides for the SAT. The scoring anomalies we saw on the October 2024 PSAT are also likely occurring on the SAT; they’re just better disguised on the three-letter exam. Based on our historical review, scoring outliers crop up every 3 to 4 years with the PSAT. Projected across an SAT cycle, that’s potentially 2 problematic exam dates every year!
Cutoff changes
In total, 47 states saw higher cutoffs, as did the District of Columbia (225, a new record), U.S. territories and commonwealths (210), U.S. boarding schools (220-225, new records), and U.S. students abroad (225, a new record). Boarding school cutoffs are set at the highest state cutoff within the National Merit region. For students at day schools, eligibility is defined by the school’s location rather than the student’s home address.
State cutoffs always have some degree of fluctuation, especially in smaller states. The size and consistency of this year’s movements set them apart, and large states provide the best measuring stick. A 3-point increase in Maine’s cutoff might be considered unusual, but a 3-point rise in California’s cutoff demands an explanation.
The 12 largest states account for more than 10,000 Semifinalists. Their cutoffs went up an average of 2.25 points, a record change. Even the plunge in the Class of 2021, traced back to a flawed PSAT form, was more moderate.
Over the last dozen years, the majority of 2- and 3-point changes in large states’ cutoffs occurred just this year.
The bias is also seen when looking at all 50 states. The chart below shows how changes in the prior 11 years compare to the Class of 2026’s shifts. Historically, cutoffs remain unchanged approximately 30% of the time, and go up by 2 or more points only 15% of the time. This year, two-thirds of states saw increases of 2 or more points.
Was the PSAT fair? Was it wind-assisted?
In running events such as the 100m-dash, results do not qualify as world records if there is too much wind. The race results still stand; the gold, silver, and bronze medalists still finished first, second, and third. But the runners’ performances are not comparable to other races if they had a 15-mile per hour wind at their backs. While the October 2024 PSAT was likely wind-assisted, it was largely fair to those taking the test. The higher National Merit cutoffs did not alter the number of Commended Students or Semifinalists. Students were still ranked 1, 2, 3, etc.
Why the qualifier of “largely fair”?
On the digital PSAT, not all students answer the same questions. There is a pool of potential items. Nor is scaling done by a simple tally of right/wrong answers. As with the digital SAT, a specialized form of scoring called 3-parameter Item Response Theory (IRT) is used on the PSAT. IRT is a form of pattern scoring, where a student’s score is determined by which specific questions are answered correctly or incorrectly. If the parameters for questions were inaccurate and those questions only went to certain students, then the bias in scores may not have been uniform. A swirling wind could have helped some students and not others. The consistency of the upward bias, though, indicates that most students were boosted last October.
Scores provide needed insight
In the old world of paper PSATs, College Board shared select test forms with students, provided educators with performance data for questions, and released scales. None of that takes place with the digital PSAT. No items are released. No scoring parameters are provided. No performance data is shared. Students are not even told how many questions they got right or wrong. In short, visibility over the exam is available only by analyzing reported scores.
Those reported scores clearly show the upward bias. The number of students earning a 700-760 score on Reading & Writing increased from 62,000 to well over 74,000 (a 20% increase). The number of Math scores in that range went from 59,000 to approximately 78,000 (up more than 30%).
The changes at the very top were likely even more extreme. With the 223 cutoff seen in New Jersey for the Class of 2025, there were 12 score combinations that qualified a student for Semifinalist: 740RW / 750M, 740RW / 760M, etc. For the state’s 225 cutoff this year, there were only 6 combinations. It’s possible that the number of 750-760 scores went up by 50% or more.
So, the October 2024 test was easier than normal?
If easier is defined as more students able to achieve top marks, then the answer is “yes.” That doesn’t mean that the questions themselves were easier. The test’s scale is meant to adjust for differences. Somewhere along the line, things broke down.
Over the last two decades, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), 2019 (Class of 2021), and 2024 (Class of 2026) stand out as problematic. In those years, almost every state saw a change in cutoffs, and the direction and size of the change point to non-parallel forms (wind!). (The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year.) The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time.
Implications for the SAT
The PSAT offers a snapshot of an entire class at a specific moment. In contrast, the SAT is administered on various dates and times, yet all results are reported as interchangeable. Some SAT takers may have wind at their backs, and some may be running directly into the wind. College Board’s goal is to prevent differing conditions or factor them out of the equation. Its objective is to ensure that the questions on each exam are nearly identical in content and difficulty (known as “parallel forms”), with any minor discrepancies accounted for through equating and scaling. However, PSAT results highlight the challenge of achieving this goal. Ultimately, some SAT administrations are going to yield higher or lower scores, just as observed with the PSAT.
Why aren’t you analyzing those SAT changes?
SAT data provided by College Board tend to obscure non-parallel results. Scores from individual test dates are not publicly shared. Even in the locked-down educator portals, scores are only reported in broad ranges. By the time College Board presents the results for a group of graduated students, the impact of non-parallel forms has been smoothed away, and College Board prefers it that way. If you can’t see scoring irregularities, did they really happen? The useful thing about the PSAT is that we can see them. National Merit cutoffs are far more granular than the 1400-1600 range that College Board reports annually for the SAT.
Non-parallel forms, norms, and student behavior
If test forms are not consistently parallel, then students have added incentive to repeat the SAT. As a test taker, why wouldn’t I want to stumble across an exam with an upward bias? The incentive is increased by the fact that superscoring locks in any upward bias and any positive error (see below) on each section of the test. Over time, the number of test dates taken by students applying to competitive colleges has increased, and testing calendars have shifted forward to allow for this. This may not be desired behavior, but it is rational behavior.
Due to upward shifts in SAT scores, traditional normative data like percentiles are insufficient for accurately measuring performance. PSAT students in the class of 2026 saw how tricky it can be comparing one’s performance to historical norms. The same problem arises on the SAT. Percentiles are provided for the three preceding class years. If there is an upward shift, it will not be fully reflected for more than three years. Unlike the ACT, College Board stopped reporting the number of students achieving each score nearly a decade ago and has never disclosed the impact of superscoring on score distribution. When assessing where an SAT score really ranks, students are not given the full picture.
In effect, College Board provides outdated track season averages for the SAT and expects them to be good enough to assess individual race results. Wind be darned.
Haven’t scores always been volatile?
Fluctuations at the individual level are different than those at the population level, although both can contribute to scoring uncertainty for students.
All tests contain inherent imprecision, known as the standard error of measurement (SEM) in psychometrics. SEM reflects that a single test can not accurately pin down a student’s “true score.” For this reason, College Board provides students with a score range, typically plus or minus 30 points, beneath their reported test scores.
Changes in the National Merit cutoffs can not be explained by SEM. Error in measurement is effectively random, and negative error and positive error cancel out when viewed over a large population. It doesn’t get much larger than the 1.5 million juniors who took the PSAT. SEM would not push scores upward.
The confidence intervals provided on student scores, however, assume parallel forms. Non-parallel forms are the likely cause of the increases on the October 2024 PSAT.
Instead of random error, scores were biased upwards, at least at the highest levels. There is strong circumstantial evidence that the October 2024 PSAT was not parallel to the October 2023 PSAT. In other words, students saw volatility (College Board’s inability to equate each test to produce equivalent scores) layered on top of typical volatility (the fluctuation of individual student scores due to SEM). The same problem arises with the SAT, it is simply hidden from view.
Fluke, shift, or trend
Was the observed bias on the PSAT a fluke, shift, or trend? The change in score distribution could be attributable to something unique to the October 2024 PSAT. We saw this happen with the paper tests in the past. There were outlier years that we might consider “flukes.”
Alternatively, we could be seeing a permanent shift upward in scores. Instead of wind at the back, are we perhaps seeing a move to a new track surface that will permanently raise scores? Equating a new test format is difficult. Equating a new format that accounts for future student behavior is even harder. Is it simply coincidence that scores jumped in both 2016 and 2024, the years after the introduction of new PSAT designs? It’s difficult to disprove a shift at its very outset.
Could the change reflect even more than a shift? Could it be a trend that will push scores higher still? This seems like the least likely possibility. Previous examples of major score differences have fallen into the fluke or shift buckets.
Other theories about the change
There are other theories as to why PSAT scores increased. For example, is the increase in PSAT scores due to better preparation? It is unlikely. I have spent much of my professional life helping students improve their test scores, so it may seem odd that I discount learning improvements or test preparation as an explanation. Practice and preparation do raise scores at the individual level. The behavior of a testing population, however, rarely changes quickly or uniformly.
The cutoffs in the largest 12 states went up either 2 points or 3 points. We should not have seen that uniformity if preparation and technique were the primary causes.
It’s Desmos’ fault
Probably not. Desmos, the powerful online calculator available for the PSAT and SAT, was available in 2023, as well. Students may have become more adept with Desmos, but that doesn’t explain why we also saw an increase in Reading & Writing scores. Further, a Desmos-linked impact should be less prominent at the highest score levels, since students capable of scoring 740-760 are less likely to see the benefit versus those scoring, say, 650-700.
Are the cutoffs explainable by a change in testing population?
The number of students taking the PSAT can change from year-to-year. The score level of those students can also change. For example, if a state begins requiring all students to take the PSAT, the average score will go down, while the number of high scorers may move up (in previous years, we saw this in Illinois and Michigan). This is a poor fit for what we saw with the PSAT. Scores went up across virtually all states. There is strong evidence that there were forces that pushed Selection Indexes up by 2 points.
Is the change attributable to the adaptive nature of the exam?
The RW and Math PSAT each have two stages. A student receives an initial set of questions. Based on their performance on that first stage, the student receives a set of easier or harder problems in stage 2. An adaptive test can more quickly narrow down a student’s score, but there is always the chance of what is known as routing error. In other words, a student with an ultimate score of 640 probably should have been routed to the harder stage 2 problems rather than the easier ones. There may be less accuracy had the student been routed to the easier set of questions. However, routing error should be neutral for the population as a whole. Further, College Board research maintains that routing error has a minimal impact on scores. Most important, students scoring at the National Merit range would have been routed to the harder stage 2 with 99+% certainty.
IRT scoring may have been a factor. Item parameters are calculated beforehand through pre-testing, where the question is included as an unscored item on earlier exams. Inaccurate parameters can lead to inaccurate scores.
The digital PSAT and SAT are shorter than their paper ancestors, and this can contribute to score instability. An individual problem or two plays a greater role on a shorter exam. While this can be offset by the adaptive nature of the test, longer is always better when it comes to test reliability. The PSAT tries to place students on a 160 to 760 scale with only 40 scored Math questions and only 50 RW questions.
Could NMSC have changed how it calculates cutoffs?
Each year, some students are unable to take the PSAT because of illness or other extenuating circumstances. These students can apply to enter the scholarship program via Alternate Entry using an SAT score. The deadline for application is generally April 1 after the PSAT, although students can use SAT scores through the June test date. In the past, NMSC has only used PSAT scores to calculate cutoffs (with an exception made during the COVID-related cancellations in 2020). Because students can take the SAT on multiple dates, their scores skew higher than PSAT scores. If NMSC were to include them in the cutoff calculations, it would likely lead to cutoff inflation. Compass has not heard that any changes were made for the Class of 2026.
Did Compass see the changes coming?
Only in part. Once PSAT scores were available in November, we noted the uptick in 1400-1520 scores and projected that the Commended cutoff would move up 2 points to 210. While upward movement was expected nationally, we did not foresee the breadth of the changes. The table below shows that there were far more high scores in the Class of 2020. The class also saw a higher Commended of 212. Yet the highest Semifinalist cutoff only reached 223. Cutoffs as high as 225 were without any precedent.
What about expectations for the Class of 2027 and beyond?
More than ever, PSAT students have to be aware that “past performance is no guarantee of future results.” In November, Compass will report on the scoring of the October 2025 exam and provide our range projections. We won’t know what future cutoffs will be, but the PSAT scores may provide clues on the question of fluke, shift, or trend.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
NMSC sets a target number of Semifinalists for a state. For example, California sees about 2,000 Semifinalists every year, Michigan 500, and Wyoming 25. In each state, NMSC determines the Selection Index that comes closest to matching its target number of Semifinalists. If 1,900 California students score 222 and higher and 2,050 score 221 or higher, then the Semifinalist cutoff would be 221 (this assumes that the target is exactly 2,000). Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced for the next class?
The Commended cutoff will become unofficially known by the end of April 2026. The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Awesome work compiling all the cutoffs!
Out of curiosity, do you have the list that shows how many commended are in each state and how many unique schools are represented in each state?
Thank you, George.
I do not.
Hello Mr. Sawyer!
This information may not help you, but I wanted to let you know that I have received an NMSC letter from my school confirming that I am a Semifinalist as an alternate entry applicant with a Selection Index score of 218 in Ohio! Thank you so much for helping me and a lot of other families by making this amazing website!
Thank you for sharing and for the kind words. Congratulations!
Hello! I took the PSAT my junior year when I was in South Carolina. I got a 215. After my junior year, I moved down to Florida for my senior year that’s going on right now, and will graduate from a Florida high school. Which state’s cutoff should I look at?
Sarvesh,
National Merit considers students based on the school they attended when they took the PSAT. You are a South Carolina student for National Merit. Congratulations!
Thank you for collecting this info. Curious though, my son attends a public school in MA and scored a 227 on last years PSAT. Per is eligibility info he does meet entry requirements. He has not yet heard whether or not he is a semifinalist. Is there a situation in which he would not be make it? Getting very nervous since he has not been notified yet.
Christina,
Many schools prefer to wait until the 13th, which is the press release date for National Merit announcements. There is no reason to be nervous. If you haven’t heard from the school after the 13th, check in with them. If you aren’t able to get an answer from the school after a day or two, you can call NMSC directly to confirm that your son is a Semifinalist. Congratulations, btw!
There are lightning-strike rare instances of where, say, a student’s class year is wrong. On the National Merit tab of your son’s PSAT report from College Board, I believe there is an indication of whether CB has him as having met eligibility requirements. That will not tell him whether or not he is a Semifinalist — College Board is not involved in that decision — but it will confirm that the correct information was passed along to NMSC. Even those sorts of glitches can be cleared up.
Thank you so much for your work! I must admit, I was refreshing non-stop for confirmation of our state’s cutoff last week. I was able to breath a sigh of relief that my son did make NMSF. He is now working on the application for NMF and I would like your guidance on listing the first choice college. For our family, chasing merit money is key. However, my son’s first choice college is not a sponsor of a NM scholarship. Should he even list that college as his first choice or would it be smarter to list one of the colleges that do sponsor a NM scholarship that he does have interest in?
Congratulations to your son!
You will want to list a sponsoring school. That’s a particularly easy answer in your son’s case, since merit aid is important. You’ll want to keep reevaluating that first choice as your son goes through the admission process. The matching process doesn’t begin until March, so he’ll know a lot more about his prospects by then. There are some wonderful schools that provide significant financial aid for National Merit Finalists. And don’t be shy. See if a school has a liaison that deals with National Merit students. Make sure that you ask about any school-specific deadlines.
Feel free to ignore my question, but I’ll put it in a simple yes/no form. Is the essay on your son’s NMF app using the same prompt as in past years: “To help the reviewers get to know you, describe an experience you have had, a person who has influenced you, or an obstacle you have overcome. Explain why this is meaningful to you. Use your own words and limit your response to the space provided.” Thanks!
Thank you for your thorough reply! The prompt is the same.
Thank you, Chris! There are always some students who are late receiving notifications, so it’s nice to be able to confirm the prompt for them.
When do you think is a reasonable time to follow up with the school to ask about the materials. My son’s index met the cut off for our state but have heard nothing from their school
RC,
Many schools prefer to wait until the press release date on the 13th, so your situation is not unusual. No need for concern. If your son doesn’t hear anything on the 13th, I would follow up with the school.
Do the alternative entrants still have to send another SAT or ACT score as confirmatory?
Harry,
I have heard from Alternate Entrants who have talked with NMSC about this in the past that a second SAT is not required. Because the topic is not covered in any of their released publications, I would advise contacting NMSC directly.
thank you!
Hi Art!
Daughter is Oklahoma. Doesn’t want to take SAT.
ACT (33) conversion is 220. Lots of community service and activities. Will that be a safe score to submit for Finalist consideration? Will have great essay and recs from school.
Also, would appreciate your advisement on what to put for school of choice since none of her top 4 are NM Sponsors.
Thanks for your continued help!
Kerry,
Your daughter does not need to take the SAT. Her 220 is well above what is needed as a confirming score (generally set at the Commended level of 207). And having a higher score does not play a factor in Finalist selection.
Putting a non-sponsoring school does little (nothing?) for a student. If she puts one of her top 4 schools as her first choice, she just has to accept that the only scholarship opportunities are direct from National Merit or a corporate sponsor. Only about a quarter of Finalists receive such an award. As I’ve recommended to other families, don’t view what she puts now as her final answer. Set a reminder for February and see where her admission process stands. If she knows that she will be going to a non-sponsor, then she should list the non-sponsor at that time. It’s better for her to compete for a national award than to get matched with a school she is not considering.
Thank you Art! Truly appreciate all your help over the last year!
Hi Art,
I qualified as a semifinalist in CA, thanks for compiling this information for us! I was looking through the finalist application and saw on the NMSC website that a whopping 95% of semifinalists become finalists. Do you think the 5% who did not become finalists simply didn’t submit an application? And how highly should I prioritize this application, considering I also have college applications and many other commitments at the moment?
Lisa,
Congratulations! I’ve never found any material indicating the percent that different factors play in disqualifying Semifinalists from continuing. I suspect that some of them do not complete the application. As you point out, it can serve as a distraction. And schools have to write letters of recommendation and send the completed application, and there are some that don’t give National Merit a high priority.
But my guess is that the top 2 reasons are the academic expectations and the need for a confirming score. “Have a record of consistently very high academic performance in all of grades 9 through 12 and in any college course work taken.” That’s a high standard — “consistently,” “very,” “all,” “any.” To my knowledge, NMSC has never defined those standards publicly. So students do not have a way of knowing if a GPA is sufficient or if a bad grade in 10th grade is going to disqualify them. The good news is that there is nothing you can do about any of that other than to keep getting good grades your senior year (and you are already going to do that for colleges). So my advice is to stay optimistic. The confirming score likely trips up some students, but because it is a national score based on the Commended cutoff, it’s not much of a threat to the typical CA qualifier. Best of luck!
Deciding to focus on your college applications is a perfectly reasonable response with one caveat. If the potential financial aid benefits are important, try to find the time. And it really shouldn’t take much time. The essay is so general that it shouldn’t be hard to rework one of your college app essays. The rest of the application won’t take long at all if you have things organized — which you also need to do for your college apps.
I got a 219 and I live in Texas. Does this mean I am a Semifinalist?
John,
A junior in Texas with a 219 will be a Semifinalist. Congratulations. If you still haven’t heard from your school, you can contact NMSC directly [(847) 866-5100] for confirmation. You’ll still need to get the letter from your school, as that has your login information for the application portal for Finalist.
Hi Art,
We live in Europe and my son is a US citizen who was born and raised overseas. He attends a semi-‘international’ high school, and will be able to take the PSATs at another intl school (not his own school- which doesn’t offer it). Since he doesn’t really have a US state affiliation (I am registered to vote in CA, where I last lived in the US), does that mean he won’t be eligible for the NMS at all?
Carleen,
Your son seems to meet the eligibility requirements — assuming he is a junior. As long as he lists himself as a junior and as a U.S. citizen, then he is eligible to participate as a student outside of the U.S. On his online PSAT report, there should be a confirmation on the tab for National Merit (as I haven’t taken the PSAT in a looong time, I may have the naming wrong). In April, high schools receive lists of students eligible to continue in the NMSP process — meaning they hit the Commended level or above. Schools aren’t supposed to release that information, but they are supposed to confirm it with NMSC. That’s the only part of the process that makes me nervous, as I don’t know how familiar your son’s school is with National Merit. If there have been other Commended Students or Semifinalists from the school, then you know things must be working.
Hi Art,
Firstly, Thank you so much for this blog.
My son made the cut off for NY with 220.
For the confirming score, NMSC requests SAT or ACT. He has 1550 (750E and 800M) in SAT and 36 in ACT (35R 35W 36M 36S). Based on concordance tables, SI for ACT and SAT would be the same (I.e. 1550). Seems like NMSC is ignoring the science section of the ACT when doing conversions. Does it matter which one we submit ? I think SAT is cheaper to submit than ACT.
Thanks
Andy
Congratulations to your son, Andy.
He is so far over (!) the necessary confirming score (which should be at 207 this year) that you might as well just flip a coin. A higher score does not boost a student’s chances at the Finalist or Scholar stages. Yes, SAT reports are a few dollars cheaper.
Hi Art:
What is the meaning of the three digit code (just next to the names) in the semifinalist? For example, 999, 000, 520, 743, 200, so on and so forth.
It’s the code for intended major a student listed when registering for the PSAT.
https://nationalmerit.imodules.com/s/1758/images/gid2/editor_documents/collegemajorcareercodes.pdf
What does 000 means
meenakshi,
The 3-digit number represents the college major or career code students chose during PSAT registration. 000 means that no code was chosen or the student entered National Merit via Alternate Entry.
Hi Art, I have received the letter from my school and will start my application process soon. Thank you for all the great work you have done for the students! You’ve made the process less stressful. I have one question. I want to include the NM semifinalist status in my college application but also indicate that I am likely to be a finalist. In your opinion, what is the appropriate way to list it? Can I say something like “National Merit Scholarship Semi-finalist, finalist status anticipated (or expected) in Feb. 2024?” I don’t want to sound like I assume too much but also want the colleges know that I meet all the finalist eligibility requirements (GPA, confirming score, etc.). Thank you!
Congratulations, Luke!
I would recommend against listing yourself as anything beyond a Semifinalist. Colleges know how the timeline works and that Finalists won’t be named until 2024. They also know all of the things you mentioned and with a lot more detail. Colleges have all of your grades. They have recommendation letters. They have your activities. They have your essays. They have test scores (if you choose to send them). Let them make their own assumptions about where you will end up in the NM process. Best of luck!
Thank you so much, Art! I will definitely follow your advice. Have a wonderful weekend.
Art, do you happen to know the reason why Merit will not post the complete list of semifinalists on their website?
Harry,
I’m a big supporter of National Merit and NM students, but I would be hard-pressed to name a process change in the last 40 years. They have always chosen to send physical packets to schools and to have Semifinalist names distributed only by schools or the local press. That made a bit more sense when the local paper might run an item about Semifinalists. Or when the only dependable way to get information to 16,000 PSAT takers was via their schools. Now a community is lucky if it still has a local paper. And every student has an email address. I hope National Merit eventually adopts an online process just like every college has adopted. Until then, we just have to accept that they don’t intend to fix what they don’t consider broken. I will say that putting 16,000 student names on their website might create some privacy issues, but I’m reaching.
Hello, we are US citizens living abroad. My daughter just missed the cutoff for international. Her school confirmed this but she does make the commended cutoff. Her school has no information about commended students. How can my daughter confirm this? Do commended letters go out with semifinalist letters?
Lynn,
NMSC does not send Commended letters to schools until the Semifinalist press release date (the 12th). So your daughter’s school may not receive them for a couple of more weeks. Her score means that she will certainly be a Commended Student!
My daughter was named a semifinalist. Her high school does not have many semifinalists, and the school is not sure how to do their part. Should the principal have received her own log-in information?
D,
I’m not sure on that one. Has your daughter completed her portion? It may give instructions for next steps. You best bet is to call NMSC: (847) 866-5161. Congratulations and good luck!
Art my daughter who is a NMSQT semifinalist in Utah has score 1490 in SAT and has GPA of 4,2 what are her chances of becoming finalist
Mo,
It’s difficult to give chances on Finalist qualification because NMSC does not publish specific standards for academic achievement. Her SAT score is high enough to check that box. Her GPA is likely strong enough. As long as she gets a recommendation from her school, she should be in good shape. 15,000 of the 16,000 Semifinalists end up as Finalists.
Do you know how the scoring will work this year? Do you think that they will adjust the requirements to make it more fair? I just don’t understand how they can score it fairly when everyone took a different test, some harder than others because of the “harder” modules after taking the first one.
The digital PSAT (and SAT) use a type of scoring known as Item Response Theory. One of the big advantages is that tests can be scaled — essentially on the fly — based on characteristics of the individual items. The math behind IRT is complex, but it has been in use for 50 years and has become the preferred method for scoring standardized tests. One way to think about the adaptive test is to consider how wasteful the old style was. You had tens of thousands of very high scoring students answering problems that they were all going to get correct (except for a few careless errors). The adaptive sections allows students to do problems that are better at truly defining their scores.
Realistically, all of the students competing for National Merit will have seen the harder modules. While the questions they saw were not identical, all of those modules can be set to a common scale using IRT. None of this means that College Board got it right (!), but it does mean that the ideas behind the test do not necessarily make it less fair.
I just saw the new PSAT score report. We are in NJ and found it interesting that the average score for both sections was bellow the national average. I would have expected NJ to be above that since it usually has the highest cutoffs – or is it a case of having a lot of both extremes? Do you know what the state average has been in the past?
TG,
You’re on the right track. There is often an inverse relationship between average score and NMSF cutoff. It boils down to participation rate. NJ has a high PSAT participation rate. Students across the full gamut of abilities take the test (I show last year’s average for NJ juniors was 966). In states where the participation rate is low, the test taker pool tends to skew high. But even with that skew, it means that many NMSF-capable students don’t bother taking the PSAT (this is common in states where the ACT predominates). That leaves less competition for the state’s Semifinalist slots. NJ, on the other hand, has a lot of high-scoring students who virtually all take the PSAT. The competition is fierce.
Hi Art,
Another grateful “thanks!” for compiling this data and watching – and being willing to project – the trends. The latest update show the Class of ’25 Commended cutoff rising 1 point to 208. How rare or anomalous would it be for the cutoff to actually rise to 210 or 211, given what’s known so far & what’s left to be seen? I ask because my junior received a score giving a selection index of 210, which seems pretty likely to be in the Commended range, but more assurance is always, well, reassuring. Thanks again for the great resource you make available to parents & students everywhere!
R.E.,
It would, I’m afraid, not be that anomalous. If the second batch of scores includes as many 1400-1520 scores as we saw in the first batch, then the Commended cutoff is probably in the 209 – 211 range. If it is exactly 60,000 students in that band, then my Most Likely would be at 210. Alas, that’s probably not all that reassuring. Thank you for the kind words.
PSAT scores just came out. It looks like the cut offs are going to be really high this year with the digital test. Is 226 selection index good enough for making NMS semifinalist in California for Class of 2025? 1510 (750-English, 760-Math)
Thanks!
Willy,
Congratulations! So far we only have half of the scores. That first half looks higher than the last few years, but we’ll know more in another week or two. I can’t imagine a scenario where a 226 doesn’t qualify. Scores thin out rapidly above 223. California has never been above 222.
Thank you, Mr. Sawyer! Based on the statistics from the last few years on your website; I know I should feel confident about the 226 but I am nervous looking at the score inflation with this year’s digital tests. I’ll come back here after the 16th to look for your insights on the full results. Thank you again for this awesome website! 😊
Wow – thanks for compiling this info so quickly. Will wait with fingers crossed until we find out more on Nov 15th.
My daughter was 2022, scored 1440/222 and WAS a NM Semifinalist.
My son is 2025 and just scored 1460 but only 216. Seems weird, no?
Steve,
Not that weird. The Selection Index doubles the RW score, so presumably your son did better in Math (presumably 700RW 760M) and your daughter did better in RW. You may be misremembering her scores slightly. I can’t make a 222 out of a 1440. If she had a 760RW 700M, then she’d be at 222.
Yes, you’re correct. That’s exactly how my son’s score broke down AND my daughter was 221. So….what’s the theory behind doubling the verbal portion?
It dates back 50-60 years, so I’m not sure that there is a useful theory other than “that’s how we have always done it.”
Update: Actually, it seems my daughter took the PSAT twice…something to do with COVID. First one was 10th grade (1440) and then, the one she said “counted”, she scored a 1490 on. Sorry for the confusion.
Ah, that makes sense. Thanks!
PSAT Scores just came out. We are based in alabama and my son got 216 selection index. Seems like scores are a lot more inflated this time around. Would we get a better idea by November 15th whether 216 can qualify him for National Merit Semifinalist
Mark,
We should have a better picture by Nov 15th, although I don’t want to promise that I’ll suddenly know the state cutoffs! We should have a better idea about the general state of the inflation. The good news is that Alabama’s cutoff has topped out at 216 over the past 15 years. So it would take an unusual year for it to go to 217.
Thanks so much for all this amazing information, Art!
I’m relatively new to this and my daughter just received a 1470/220 today (in MA). Sounds like she would be a borderline semifinalist? Still a great accomplishment and we are very proud!
JB,
Absolutely a great accomplishment! Yes, MA is usually right behind NJ for the highest cutoff. A 220 was enough for the class of 2023, so we’ll see how things shake out. Good luck to your daughter!
Hi Art,
Great information! When should we expect to know what the “official” selection index cutoffs will be for the class of 2025? Is it correct that we need to wait until April of 2024 until they are published? My son’s selection index for Pennsylvania is a 220 so he’s right in the middle of the predicted range. Thanks!
Penny,
It’s actually not until September 2024 that things are made official. In April the Commended cutoff usually leaks, but that’s not true of the Semifinalist cutoffs. I’d say that he is better than in the middle. The highest we’ve seen PA’s cutoff is 220. Which not to say that a higher cutoff is impossible in an unusual year.