Compass projects lower qualifying scores for the Class of 2027
The junior year PSAT is also the NMSQT — the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying Test. Each year, National Merit recognizes the top 57,000 test takers. In order to be included in that group, students need to be among the top 4% of the 1.4 million students who take the PSAT. Of that elite group, approximately 17,000 are recognized as Semifinalists for having the highest scores within their states. Semifinalists have the opportunity to continue in the program to become Finalists and, potentially, scholarship recipients. The remaining 40,000 students are recognized as Commended Students. More information can be found in our National Merit Explained post.
For the Class of 2027, the exact scores needed to qualify (“cutoffs”) will not be released until September 2026 (the Commended cutoff is likely to leak in April). In order to give students context for their test results, Compass has analyzed the scores from the October 2025 to produce estimates for the national Commended cutoff and the individual state cutoffs. We predict that the majority of state cutoffs will decline this year.
National Merit uses the Selection Index (SI), found on the PSAT score report, to rank students. The Selection Index can be calculated by doubling the Reading & Writing score (RW), adding the Math score (M), and dividing that sum by 10. For example, a student with a 720 RW and 700 M score has a Selection Index of 214 — (720 x 2 + 700)/10. The weighting of the index means that not all students with a 1420 Total Score have the same SI. A student with a 700 RW and 720 M has a Selection Index of 212. The highest SI a student can receive is 228 (760 RW and 760 M). Last year, the Commended cutoff was 210, and Semifinalist cutoffs ranged from 210 to 225 depending on the competitiveness of the state.
Why do we foresee lower cutoff scores?
College Board does not release any information about the distribution of Selection Indexes, but it does produce summaries of broad score ranges. The number of students in the 1400 – 1520 Total Score range has proved to be an excellent indicator of the Commended cutoff. The Class of 2027 saw 16% fewer top scores than did last year’s class. The 52,400 students at 1400 and above is closer to what we saw two years ago with the Class of 2025 and, going back further, similar to the results for the Classes of 2017 and 2021.
Most of the students who will qualify for National Merit recognition fall in the 1400 – 1520 band (or just outside it). With approximately 10,000 fewer students in the top band of scores this year, we expect the Commended level to drop to 208 or 209. The chart below shows the historical relationship between high scores and the Commended cutoff.
Explaining why last year’s cutoffs reached record levels
After examining this year’s numbers, we also have a better understanding of why Semifinalist cutoffs jumped to such extreme levels last year, and why it should not happen again. The 2024 PSAT saw an unprecedented 18% jump in the number of high Reading & Writing scores (700-760). The weighting of RW in the Selection Index magnified the impact of that change. The table below shows scores for the last three years and how results have fluctuated.
On the 2025 PSAT, the number of high RW scores dropped by 27%. In fact, the RW count for this year is even lower than it was two years ago. The decline in RW scores could even produce Selection Indexes lower than those in the Class of 2025 — at least in some states. The Commended cutoff may provide additional insight in the spring.
The ratio of 700+ M scores to 700+ RW scores reveals just how bizarre last year’s spike was. Traditionally, Math scores have higher distributions at the extremes. There are more very high Math scores on the PSAT and SAT, and there are more very low Math scores.
On the October 2024 PSAT, though, almost as many students scored 700-760 on RW as did on Math. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.02. This helps explain why some cutoffs went as high as 224 and 225 for the first time ever. Students achieved 750 and 760 RW scores in record numbers. In most years, there would be more students scoring 730 RW and 760 M (222 SI), for example, than scoring 760 RW and 730 M (225 SI). That was not true in the the Class of 2025, where there was a more equal distribution. It appears that scores for the Class of 2027 have returned to the traditional Math-heavy distribution. The ratio of high Math scores to high RW scores was 1.33 on the 2025 PSAT/NMSQT. For this reason, we don’t believe we will see a repeat of the 224 and 225 cutoffs seen last year.
Was last year a fluke, shift, or a trend?
The results from the Class of 2027 have answered one of the nagging questions from last year: Were the high cutoffs a fluke, shift, or trend? The answer appears to be fluke. More accurately, results could be labeled an error in test construction and scaling. There is no evidence that the Class of 2026 possessed special test-taking skills. As sophomores, that class performed in line with expectations on the 2023 PSAT. There is no evidence that the Class of 2027 has diminished skills. As sophomores, the class saw the same inflated scores as did the juniors on the 2024 PSAT. The best explanation is that College Board lost control of the scale. College Board dramatically shortened the PSAT when it switched from paper to digital. On the paper test, the Reading and Writing sections had 91 questions, and students were given 95 minutes. The RW on the digital PSAT is truncated to 54 questions over 64 minutes. And only 50 of the questions count toward a student’s score! A shorter exam means a less reliable exam. We saw the occasional wild ride on the paper PSAT, but the rides may get wilder and more frequent on the digital PSAT.
We anticipate the majority of state Semifinalist cutoffs to decline for the Class of 2027. Knowing this overall trend, however, doesn’t tell us which states will be in that majority or how much lower scores will go. The table below provides a Most Likely cutoff score, but the more useful information is the Estimated Range. Almost all cutoffs should fall within that range.
State | Class of 2027 (Most Likely) | Class of 2027 (Est. Range) | Class of 2026 (Actual) | Class of 2025 (Actual) | Class of 2024 (Actual) | Avg NMSFs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 250 |
| Alaska | 214 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 35 |
| Arizona | 218 | 215 - 220 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 398 |
| Arkansas | 213 | 210 - 216 | 215 | 213 | 210 | 143 |
| California | 223 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 221 | 221 | 2,115 |
| Colorado | 218 | 216 - 221 | 219 | 218 | 216 | 286 |
| Connecticut | 222 | 220 - 223 | 223 | 221 | 221 | 175 |
| Delaware | 219 | 218 - 221 | 220 | 219 | 219 | 44 |
| Florida | 217 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 999 |
| Georgia | 219 | 217 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 602 |
| Hawaii | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 62 |
| Idaho | 214 | 211 - 217 | 215 | 213 | 211 | 96 |
| Illinois | 220 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 220 | 219 | 704 |
| Indiana | 217 | 214 - 219 | 218 | 217 | 216 | 313 |
| Iowa | 213 | 211 - 216 | 214 | 212 | 210 | 145 |
| Kansas | 216 | 213 - 219 | 216 | 215 | 214 | 144 |
| Kentucky | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 213 | 211 | 201 |
| Louisiana | 215 | 212 - 218 | 216 | 214 | 214 | 222 |
| Maine | 215 | 212 - 217 | 217 | 214 | 213 | 55 |
| Maryland | 223 | 221 - 225 | 224 | 222 | 221 | 308 |
| Massachusetts | 223 | 221 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 222 | 318 |
| Michigan | 219 | 216 - 220 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 485 |
| Minnesota | 218 | 216 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 279 |
| Mississippi | 213 | 210 - 215 | 213 | 212 | 209 | 155 |
| Missouri | 216 | 213 - 218 | 217 | 215 | 214 | 289 |
| Montana | 211 | 208 - 214 | 213 | 209 | 209 | 47 |
| Nebraska | 213 | 210 - 216 | 214 | 211 | 210 | 105 |
| Nevada | 214 | 211 - 217 | 214 | 214 | 211 | 168 |
| New Hampshire | 217 | 214 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 60 |
| New Jersey | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 451 |
| New Mexico | 211 | 208 - 214 | 210 | 211 | 207 | 104 |
| New York | 221 | 219 - 223 | 223 | 220 | 220 | 1,012 |
| North Carolina | 219 | 216 - 221 | 220 | 218 | 217 | 510 |
| North Dakota | 210 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 210 | 207 | 30 |
| Ohio | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 216 | 538 |
| Oklahoma | 212 | 208 - 214 | 212 | 211 | 208 | 204 |
| Oregon | 218 | 215 - 220 | 219 | 216 | 216 | 188 |
| Pennsylvania | 220 | 217 - 222 | 221 | 219 | 219 | 596 |
| Rhode Island | 217 | 214 - 220 | 219 | 217 | 215 | 47 |
| South Carolina | 214 | 210 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 209 | 236 |
| South Dakota | 210 | 207 - 213 | 211 | 208 | 209 | 42 |
| Tennessee | 218 | 215 - 219 | 219 | 217 | 217 | 319 |
| Texas | 221 | 218 - 222 | 222 | 219 | 219 | 1,623 |
| Utah | 212 | 210 - 216 | 213 | 211 | 209 | 196 |
| Vermont | 215 | 211 - 217 | 216 | 215 | 212 | 28 |
| Virginia | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 219 | 437 |
| Washington | 222 | 220 - 224 | 224 | 222 | 220 | 348 |
| West Virginia | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 64 |
| Wisconsin | 214 | 213 - 217 | 215 | 214 | 213 | 292 |
| Wyoming | 209 | 207 - 212 | 210 | 209 | 207 | 24 |
| District of Columbia | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 36 |
| Territories | 209 | 207 - 211 | 210 | 208 | 207 | 39 |
| Outside US | 223 | 222 - 225 | 225 | 223 | 223 | 86 |
| Commended | 209 | 207 - 210 | 210 | 208 | 207 |
How cutoffs are determined
Qualifying scores (“cutoffs”) are not based on the total score for the PSAT (360-1520) but on the Selection Index, which is calculated by doubling the RW score, adding the Math score, and then dividing the sum by 10. The maximum Selection Index is 228. Students can find a historical set of cutoff data here or see how Semifinalist and Commended counts have changed state by state.
We estimate that the Semifinalist cutoffs will range from 209 to 223. Semifinalists are allocated by state, and cutoffs are calculated by state. If Florida is allocated 1,000 Semifinalists based on its population of high school graduates, then NMSC works down from a perfect 228 Selection Index until it gets as close as possible to that target. Last year, 1,008 students scored at or above the cutoff of 219. A cutoff of 220 would have produced too few Semifinalists. A cutoff of 218 would have gone over the allocation. Because score levels can get crowded, it is easy for cutoffs to move up or down a point even when there is minimal change in testing behavior or performance.
Why does each state have its own Semifinalist cutoff if the program is NATIONAL Merit?
This is always a hot button question. NMSC allocates the approximately 17,000 Semifinalists among states based on the number of high school graduates. That way, students across the nation are represented. It also means that there are very different qualifying standards from state to state. A Massachusetts student with a 220 might miss out on being a Semifinalist. If she lived 10 miles away in New Hampshire, she would qualify.
No Semifinalist cutoff can be lower than the national Commended level. Cutoffs for the District of Columbia and for U.S. students studying abroad are set at the highest state cutoff (typically New Jersey). The cutoff for students in U.S. territories and possessions falls at the Commended level each year. Boarding schools are grouped by region. The cutoff for a given region is the highest state cutoff within the region.
Change is always the theme
Over the last two decades, at least half of the state cutoffs have changed each year. In some years, as many as 49 states saw ups or downs, usually because of questionable test forms. In addition to last year’s exam, the PSATs from 2011 (Class of 2013), 2016 (Class of 2018), and 2019 stand out as problematic. The anomalous 2019 results could be traced back to a particularly mis-scaled form, which I wrote about at the time. The Class of 2014 also saw significant changes, but those were more of a bounce-back from the previous year. The question for the Class of 2027 is how much of a bounce-back will be seen this year.
Cutoffs are particularly bumpy in states with smaller pools of test takers and National Merit Semifinalists. Over the last dozen years, cutoffs in the 12 largest states have remain unchanged 36% of the time, while the cutoffs in the smallest states have remain unchanged only 1 time out of every 5. No large state’s cutoff has jumped by more than 3 points in a year, whereas 6-point changes have occurred in the pool of smaller states.
When are National Merit Semifinalists announced?
The lists of Semifinalists will not be distributed to high schools until the end of August 2026. With the exception of homeschoolers, students do not receive direct notification. NMSC asks that schools not share the results publicly until the end of the press embargo in mid-September, but schools are allowed to notify students privately before that date. NMSC does not send Commended Student letters to high schools until mid-September. Compass will keep students updated on developments as the dates approach.
Do state and national percentiles indicate whether a student will be a National Merit Semifinalist?
No! Approximately 1% of test takers qualify as Semifinalists each year, so it is tempting to view a 99th percentile score as indicating a high enough score — especially now that College Board provides students with percentiles by state. There are any number of flaws that rule out using percentiles as a quick way of determining National Merit status.
- Percentiles are based on section scores or total score, not Selection Index
- Percentiles are rounded. There is a large difference, from a National Merit perspective, between the top 0.51% and the top 1.49%
- Percentiles reveal the percentage of students at or below a certain score, but the “at” part is important when NMSC is determining cutoffs.
- The number of Semifinalists is based on the number of high school graduates in a state, not the number of PSAT takers. Percentiles are based on PSAT takers. States have widely varying participation rates.
- Most definitive of all: Percentiles do not reflect the current year’s scores! They are based on the prior 3 years’ performance. They are set even before the test is given. And if you are going to use prior history, why not use the record of prior National Merit cutoffs rather than the highly suspect percentiles?
Entry requirements for National Merit versus qualifying for National Merit.
Your PSAT/NMSQT score report tells you whether you meet the eligibility requirements for the NMSP. In general, juniors taking the October PSAT are eligible. If you have an asterisk next to your Selection Index, it means that your answers to the entrance questions have made you ineligible. Your answers are conveniently noted on your score report. If you think there is an error, you will also find instructions on how to contact NMSC. Meeting the eligibility requirements simply means that your score will be considered. Approximately 1.4 million students enter the competition each year. Only about 55,000 students will be named as Commended Students, Semifinalists, Finalists, or Scholars. See National Merit Explained for more information.
Hi Art,
Thank you for all your comments, analysis and predictions. Really helpful.
My daughter has 220 in Texas. As per your estimated cut off after the 2nd round, Texas index is at 220. Just wanted to take your opinion on chances for Texas to go to 221 (2 point increase), considering it is a big state.
Thanks again for your time and advice.
Sayan,
The fact that Texas is a large state and has a high cutoff both point toward stability. We have seen Texas hit 221 when the national numbers have been very high. I don’t think that they will be that high this year, but I certainly can’t rule it out. 10-20% chance of it moving to 221?
Hi there Art,
What a great article. Thank you for making it available for all. May I be optimistic with 218 meeting the semifinalist cutoff in Florida? If I understand your report correctly, it shows 217 as most likely. Also, when is the earliest that the Semifinalist figures can be confirmed?
Sady,
Based on talks with a colleague in Florida, I actually moved my Most Likely to 216. I think you are in excellent shape. There are those pesky 219’s from the classes of 2018-2020, but those years saw a much higher number of 1400-1520 scores nationally.
Letters are mailed to schools in late August (I know, it’s a long way away), and numbers start leaking out around Labor Day. NMSC makes it official in mid-September. The next bit of data we will receive is when the Commended cutoff leaks out — usually in April. If that stays below 210, it becomes more likely that 218 will suffice.
Hello Art,
I’ve received a 208 in California. I’m aware the scholarship is out of my reach, but what are my chances of being commended, considering the commendation cutoff for the last 3 years has been 207?
Julian,
The number of top scorers (1400-1520) seems to have gone up this year, so I think the Commended cutoff will as well. My modeling projects the cutoff as 209, but I think there is a 25-30% chance that it comes in at 208. Good luck!
I got a 218 in Michigan – looks like a hair above your projection. Do you think I should be cautiously optimistic on making the SemiFinals
Joel,
I’m a big believer in cautious optimism, and your 218 fits the bill. As I’ve mentioned to other students, it’s those 2018-2020 class years that always make me nervous. We have seen Michigan hit 219. But it has done so when there were more top scorers nationally. Let’s hope that trend holds.
Just found out that my daughter scored 219. We are in Georgia. Your semi-finalist prediction for GA is also 219 this year. What are her chances realistically? We are keeping all fingers x-ed.
Thank you for taking the time to respond Art.
RK,
Georgia has gone as high as 220 3 of the last 8 years, but each of those years saw far more high scorers nationally. I think we’ll see about 25-35% of states come in above the most likely figure. Yes, fingers crossed!
Will 220 likely be enough for Texas?
AJ,
The good news is that Texas has been at 219 that last few years. The bad news, it hit 221 for 3 years in a row during what was an uptick in scores between the classes of 2018 and 2020. I don’t think the overall uptick will be that high this year, but I’d say that there is still a 15-20% chance that Texas would reach 221.
Hi Art,
I got 212 in Missouri. Would you expect that I just get commended or is it unlikely that I will get semifinalist?
Yusuf,
You will be at least a Commended Student. I’m afraid that it is unlikely that Missouri will go to 212 this year. But the reason I included it in the estimated range is that it is not impossible.
Hey Art! I was wondering what your thoughts are on the chances of my friend’s son making semifinalist with an SI of 213 in KY. Please let me know!
JK,
I pay close attention to what cutoffs have done since the class of 2017 (when the PSAT was revised). Kentucky has seen a 7-point gap between high (218) and low (211). That makes it hard to predict with confidence. I set my “most likely” as 214 because in the years I consider most similar to this one, Kentucky was at 214 and 215. It’s been considerably lower recently. If I had to put a number to it, I’d say that there is a 30% chance that 213 will be high enough.
Hey Art, My NC kiddo just got her scores today. She has a 218. We were both excited and surprised! I hadn’t even considered that she would be in the running, but here we are. What are her chances for being a semi finalist? How likely is the likely cutoff above?
Great score! I think her chances are good, just not guaranteed. We saw higher cutoffs in the classes of 2018-2020. As I’ve pointed out to other folks, though, those years had unusually high numbers of top scorers. I find that cutoffs fall above my most likely estimates about 30% of the time.
Should we be very optimistic about 220 in Wisconsin?
JO,
That’s start-planning-your-finalist-essay territory. Congratulations!
Also, does a higher superscore mean higher chance of advancing from finalist to scholarship stage? Thanks, Isaac
It does not. The confirming SAT level (generally the Commended cutoff) is pass/fail. Having a higher score does not make it more likely to qualify. NMSC doesn’t superscore, but they do take your best SAT Selection Index.
Hi Art,
Should I consider my chances at all with a 213 in PA?
Branda,
You should plan on being a proud Commended Student. I’m afraid that 213 will be below Pennsylvania’s Semifinalist level.
My daughter got a 208. So close to a commended letter.
Our school hasn’t had a commended student since the Class of 2021, and before that it was one in the Class of 2019 so I’m really proud of her!
Nikki,
As well you should be! I think there is a chance that the Commended level will only go up a point. Good luck to your daughter!
Hi Art,
I commented before saying I got a 214 from ut and I just wanted to confirm that this score should be good for nms. I see the predicted ut cutoff score is 212 and i wanted to ask if there is any chance that there’d be any sudden change. i of course trust you guys and your prediction, but I just wanted to confirm.
Thanks!
Jameson,
I think a 214 is more likely than not to qualify. It would require a 6 point jump in Utah’s cutoff to miss, and that’s highly unusual. Over the last 8 years, though, Utah has seen 215/216 cutoffs 4 times. Most of those occurred in years where we saw more high scores than showed up this year. But I don’t think we can completely rule out a 215.
Hi Art,
Thank you for all the predictions for the states. My daughter received a 224 selection index in California. Do you think she would qualify as a semifinalist? Thanks!
Leela,
Yes, congratulations to your daughter! A 224 will qualify in CA.
Hi Art,
Would a 218 in Ohio quality for National Merit, especially since people felt the digital felt easier for many people?
Thanks for all the advice you provide!
Aakash,
The numbers showed more high scorers than in recent years, but it was not unusually high. In the last 8 years, we have only seen Ohio go to 219 twice — but those WERE years in which we saw unusually high scores. I don’t think a 218 is guaranteed, but you are in excellent shape.
Greetings Mr. Sawyer.
I was wondering if a 219 Index would be enough for Semifinalist in Nevada, and if your table reflects the additional scores that were released today for the latter half of testers? Additionally, how are Scholars chosen from pool of Finalists and how are Finalists chosen from the pool of Semifinalists? I know that the pool of top 50,000 of the 1+ Million test-takers are chosen based on scores, with the lower percentiles of the pool awarded commendation, and higher percentiles of the pool given semifinalists. But from there, from the semifinalist list, how do they determine advancement to finalist, is it their score, their application, a random lottery, etc. that determines advancement? And the same question from finalist to scholar.
Again, thanks for an outstanding and informative article.
Russell,
Yes, the current table reflects the second round of testers. You’ll be named a Semifinalist (congratulations!), but what comes next? You’ll be asked to complete an online application (sort of a barebones college app with academic and non-academic information and an essay). NMSC will look at your grades. You’ll need to get a “confirming” SAT or ACT score. That basically means that you need an SAT Selection Index at least as high as the Commended cutoff (we’ll round up and call it 210). That should be no trouble for you. You’ll also need a recommendation from your school. NMSC does not provide any information about the minimums it expects in terms of academic record. But keep in mind that 15,000 of the 16,000 Semifinalists move to Finalist. At that point, your application and your college choice plays a big role. If your top choice (what you list with NMSC late next year) is a school that provides NM scholarships, then you are almost guaranteed to receive one. If you choose to attend a school that does not offer a NM scholarship or fail to list a school as your top choice, then you will compete for about 2,500 scholarships funded by NMSC. There is more information in my other post: https://www.compassprep.com/psat-national-merit-faq/.
Hi Art,
My daughter has. 219 in Minnesota. Would this qualify her for as a Semifinalist? Or could there be changes in the Selection Index cutoff due to the glitches in the digital test this year? Thank you for your insight!
Tim,
I think 219 is going to be sufficient this year. Scores were a bit higher, than in the last few years, but not as high as what we saw for the classes of 2018-2020. Minnesota’s cutoff did hit 220 twice during those years, so I don’t think we can say that a 219 is guaranteed.
Hi Art,
I heard in the webinar that most score cutoffs are most likely to rise. Do you think an SI of 219 in Ohio will get me National Merit Semifinalist?
Thanks you for all that you do for Compass.
Nick,
They are likely to rise, but my estimates take that into account. Ohio has never hit 220, so I feel confident that your 219 will qualify.
Hi Mr. Sawyer,
How big of a chance is there for TX’s cutoff to remain unchanged? I got a 219 index score and am really hoping the cutoff doesn’t increase to 220!
Hannah,
Texas has stayed in a narrower range (219 – 221) than most states, but I know that one of those scores is a lot better for you than the other 2. I’d say that we’re looking at about a 1 in 3 chance of it staying at 219. Good luck!
Hi Mr Sawyer, Thank you for the update! So your information is with ALL the scores for NMSQT for class of 2025? I have a 221 selection index for Colorado. What is the likelihood that that score would make the National Merit Semifinalist cut off? I have the asterisk by my score because I did not fill out the “are you a traditional or homeschool student” questions so they say my scores won’t count for National merit. I called them and sent an email to petition having my eligibility reinstated. What is the likelihood they will allow my scores to count? I am a junior at a hybrid school. Is there anything I can do to help myself get reconsidered besides that email to them? They say the won’t review the petition until January.
Bryce,
A 221 will qualify in Colorado! It sounds like you have already taken the correct steps. NMSC is intent on making sure that students meeting entry requirements are allowed to enter. It doesn’t sound like your situation has much uncertainty.
Bummed a greater than 99th percentile still isn’t enough for the high CT cutoff (selection index 220).
Julie,
It’s not the score I estimated as the most likely, but there is a decent chance that the cutoff will be at 220 this year. It has been at 221 the last two years, but it was at 220 the 2 years before that. I’d estimate that there is still a 1 in 3 chance of the cutoff moving to 220.
Would a 216 most likely qualify me for National Merit in Indian(Class of 2025)? Or will it increase since the cutoff was 216 in class of 2024?
Andy,
I think a 216 is more likely than not to qualify. It’s not quite high enough to say that it is guaranteed. 75% chance?
I just got my score back as a 210 in Oklahoma. Do you think that it will jump back above 210 this year? what do you think my chances for being commended or being a semifinalist are? I’m pretty worried since your estimate says 211 in Oklahoma.
Landon,
Oklahoma’s cutoff has been 1 to 5 points above the Commended cutoff the last 8 years. With the Commended cutoff likely to go up this year, that makes it a bit more likely that the cutoff will go to 211. I think there might be 30% chance of it staying at 210 or below. We’ll know a bit more when the Commended cutoff becomes know in late April.
Hi Art,
What are the odds that a 216 qualifies for Indiana (Class of 2025)? You have 216 as the most likely cutoff, however you also predict that cutoffs will rise this year. Since Indiana was at 216 last year, do you think it will hold?
Thank you in advance.
Aiden,
Your points are why I downplay my “most likely” scores as only estimates. While I think that most cutoffs will go up, Indiana’s 216 was already up from the 215/215/214 seen in the 3 prior years. So I’d say it is close between a 216 and 217. Maybe a 60-70% chance that it holds at 216.